Tech and Media Outlook 2016 | Activate

Tech and Media Outlook 2015; Activate at WSJD Live Conference; 2015-10-20; 137 slides; landing.


slides


Mentions

  • boosterism: <quote>CAGR based on values prior to rounding.</quote>, slide 2.

Listicle

Substantially, the table of contents.

  1. The average american spends more time on tech & media than work or sleep
  2. Messaging will blow past social networks as the dominant media activity
  3. The next big winners in streaming audio are already (quietly) here
  4. The long-awaited cord cutting moment is still far off
  5. There is a “cable killer” coming, but it won’t look like you expect
  6. E-sports & wagering will change the game in gaming
  7. Good luck getting rich in the app store!
  8. These companies are grabbing all the money in consumer tech & media
  9. One simple way to predict what tech & media players will do next to compete

1. Attention

  • The product is attention, the purpose of media is the capturing of attention.
  • Minutes-per-Visitor per Month
    • Pandora → 1,200 min/month
    • Facebook → 1,200 min/month
    • Google → 700 min/month
    • Netflix → 500 min/month
    • YouTube → 400 min/month
    • All Those Messaging Apps → 300 min/month
      • Twitch
      • Kik
      • Snapchat
      • Something else with a ping cloud smudge logo
    • Yahoo → 300 min/month
    • Instagram → 200 min/month
    • The Linkbaiters, Old-Line East Coast Media, eCommerce → 0 min/month (rounding error)
  • Bubble economics, “billion dollar businesses” capturing seconds-per-month
    • HelloFresh
    • Vice
    • ZocDoc
    • BuzzFeed
    • Shazam
    • Vox
  • Categories
    • Video
    • Audio
    • Social Media
    • Gaming (actual games, not <euphemism>gambling</euphemism>)
  • Something about multitasking.

Claims

  • Because of overlaps, there are 31:28 hours:minutes of manageable attention per day.
  • Half is spent on media-type activities.
  • Selectivity is high on MAU basis
    • 79% of time on 5 apps out of 27 available.
    • 44% on 5 websites out of 96 available.
    • 100% on 18 channels out of 194 available.

2. Messaging

  • Cultures
    • WhatsApp
    • Facebook Messenger
    • WeChat
    • Instagram
    • Snapchat
    • Pinterest
  • Categories
    • Social Messaging
    • Social Network
    • Hybrid: Social Messaging & Social Network (either, or both)
  • Minutes-per-Week per Month
    • Facebook → 300 min/week
    • Tumblr → 230 min/week
    • Talk → 220 min/week
    • WhatsApp → 175 min/week
    • Pinterest → 140 min/week
    • Instagram → 140 min/week
    • Kik → 80 min/week
    • Something with a purple phone icon → 80 min/week
    • WeChat → 80 min/week
    • LINE → 30 min/week
    • Something with a blue chat bubble and an horizontal lightning bolt → 10 min/week.
  • Messaging competes with telecom-served Short Message System (SMS)
    • Driven by pricing: 63x more expensive abroad than US.
    • Very expensive in the U.S. (for what one gets).
    • Messaging apps are flat-fee or $0.
  • Messaging apps turn into a “platform”
    Features

    • Business storefronts (bot-based businesses)
    • Chat (of course)
    • Channels (television-style bespoke content)
    • Games
    • Music
    • Local commerce
    • Payments
    • Search
    • Taxi
    • Television (replaying broadcast television)
    • Virtual Assistant
  • Revenue Models, slide 34
    • Ads
    • Stickers
    • Games
    • Taxi
    • Payments
    • App Store
    • Music
    • TV
    • Subscription Fees
    • eCommerce
    • Search

Category

In descending order of MAU, slide 19

  • WhatsApp
  • Facebook Messenger
  • WeChat
  • QQ Mobile
  • Gchat
  • iMessage
  • Viber
  • LINE
  • Snapchat
  • Kik
  • Telegram
  • Tango
  • KakaoTalk
  • Hike
  • Zalo
  • Path Talk
  • FireChat
  • YikYak
  • SOMA
  • Jott
  • Nimbuzz
  • Microsoft Send
  • Vurb
  • Zolo

In some order, slides 20-30+

  • LINE
  • WeChat
  • Facebook Messenger
  • WhatsApp
  • Snapchat
  • Vurb
  • Pockettour
  • WeBank
  • Jobot
  • digit
  • Magic
  • Assist
  • Slack

Claims

  • A Buullion new Users by 2018
  • 4B Internet Users (out of ~8B on Earth).
  • Nearly all are abroad, and in “developing” markets.

3. Streaming (Audio)

  • 4 hours/day US for 13+
  • It’s a teen/young-peeple thing:
    • 13-17 → 55% streaming
    • 55+ → 6% streaming
  • Experience is bad
    <quote>inferior user experiences leave engagement lagging</quote>
  • Revenue Models
    • Advertising
    • Subscriptions
  • RedTube (YouTube Red)
  • Only 10% (more) consumers are open to pay for streaming subscriptions
    original research, Activate, panel N=? (they asked around the office?)
  • Podcasts are a thing.
    • demographics → upscale, young, educated
    • format has plenty of room for advertisement load.

Categories

  • Terrestrial broadcast (non-digital)
  • Satellite Radio
  • Streaming
  • Downloads
  • Television (Music Television)
  • Other

Instances

  • A cast of thousands
  • Enumerated on Slide 37.

Also, slide 41

  • Pandora
  • iHeart RADIO

In order of reach, descending; slide 42.

  • YouTube
  • Pandora
  • Spotify
  • Vevo
  • Hlu
  • MTV
  • VH-1
  • Yahoo! Radio
  • Rhapsody
  • Slacker Radio
  • Apple Music

In order of decreasing library size, slide 46.

  • YouTube
  • SoundCloud
  • Spotify
  • Apple Music
  • Pandora

Organized by curation type (human vs algorithm), slide 48, 49.

  • Infinite Tracks
  • Hype Machine
  • Pitchfork
  • SoundCloud
  • Apple Music
  • Google Music
  • Spotify
  • last.fm
  • Pandora
  • Shazam
  • imeem
  • Musicmatch
  • Urge
  • Ping
  • Grooveshark
  • Slacker Radio
  • Sonos

Claims

  • Four Buullion USD, now, US.
  • Ten Buullion USD, globally, 2020.
  • Audio is a multitasking activity (counts double, paired with another activity).

4. Cord Cutting

  • Over the Top (OTT)
    • HBO Now
    • SHO
  • TV Everywhere
  • Binge watching
    • Millennial → 83%
    • Generation X → 74$
    • Boomer → 56%
  • Big Screen Television
    is enjoyed by all ages(!); but Boomers like it more than Millennials
    <ahem>Seems more like Boomers (who are richer & own houses) own more big screen TVs.</ahem>
  • Two-box (four quadrant) model of consumer behavior on video
    • Linear Appointment Viewing = Long Form, High Production Cost & Live.
    • Social Networking Video = Short Form, Low Production Cost & Live
    • Video On-Demand = Long Form, High Production Cost & Recorded
    • Studio-Generated Content = Short Form, Low Production Value & Recorded.

Theses

  • The Future of TV is “Apps”
    • But that is independent of cord cutting
    • But that won’t decide how payment is attributed.
  • The Pay TV transition is “different”
    • not a technology issue
    • an experience issue
    • an access (licensing) issue
Reasoning
  • Users →still hooked on traditional TV
    (whatever this means; redundant with the other reasons)
  • Content → still licensed to pay TV (e.g. sports); not availabl in digital
  • Pricing → digital TV is still expensive
    • Pay TV bundles at low clst (though sell crap in with the desirable)all)
    • Digital TV a la carte is very expensive in aggregate
  • Experience → traditional TV wins
    • traditional is “simple”; & “reliable”
    • digital is “complex” and “unreliable”

Claims

  • (Linear) Television is 72% of all viewing
  • Viewing time is 6h/day, monthly, 2012-2015E
  • $185B/year US
    • $110B Aubscriptions (cable, add-on services)
    • $75B Advertising (of any kind)
  • Have hit “Peak Cable”

5. The Cable Killer (is X)

6. E-Sports & Gambling

7. All App Stores Are Closed

8. The Winner Take All Market Dynamics

Sources

As cited

  • PwC, IFPI, eMarketer, IBIS, SuperData, NewZoo, IBIS.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Telegraph, Edison Research, We Are Social, eMarketer, Nielsen, National Sleep Foundation, Deloitte, SNL Kagan, Sandvine, Ipsos, comScore, Global Web Index, OECD.
  • Nielsen, comScore, Ars Technica, TechCrunch, Internetlivestats, Digitalsmiths.
  • Edison, We Are Social, eMarketer, Nielsen, Deloitte, SNL Kagan, Sandvine, Ipsos, comScore, Global Web Index, Pew Research Center, Flurry Insights, Informate, NetMarketShare, Statcounter.
  • Edison, eMarketer, Nielsen, Sandvine, US Media Consulting, Cisco, Experientia, Media UK, Global Web Index, Secom, Ofcom, GroupM.
  • Google, Microsoft, Aldebaran, Disney / New York Times.
  •  Business Insider, Fortune, Mashable, Instagram, AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes, Tech in Asia, eMarketer, Compete,
  • GlobalWebIndex, eMarketer, ITO.
  • AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes.
  • AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes, Tech in Asia, VentureBeat, Kakao, LINE, Viber.
  • Gallup, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Colombia Reports, World Bank.
  • GlobalWebIndex, Tech in Asia.
  • AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance.
  • LINE.com
  • LINE Payment map, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Gallup, Colombia Reports, nations.org.
  • GlobalWebIndex, Facebook Messenger App, facebook.com.
  • Pew Research, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple.
  • Snapchat.com, Re/Code, The Information.
  • TechCrunch, vurb.com, CNBC.
  • Fortune, WSJ, Skift, TechCrunch,
  • angel.co, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance.
  • slack.com, VentureBeat, TechCrunch.
  • Apple App Store, Google Play.
  • Nomura, Andreessen Horowitz, Forbes, TechInAsia, The Economist.
  • Edison Research / Triton Digital.
  • Recording Industry Association of America, PwC, Radio Advertising Bureau, Ofcom.
  • comScore, Nielsen/Arbitron, Flurry.
  • U.S. Census, Edison Research.
  • SNL Kagan, SESAC.
  • Spotify, Pandora.
  • Apple, SoundCloud, Spotify, Pandora,
  • IFPI.
  • Pew Research, Edison Research
  • Midroll, IAB, US Census, Edison Research,
  • Marketing.science, New York Magazine, Current, Ad Age,
  • Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG,
  • BIA/Kelsey, Digital TV Research, eMarketer, Google, Hulu, Netflix, PWC, SNL
  • Kagan, Statista Digital Market Outlook, TDG.
  • Leichtman Research Group, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • CDC, CTIA, FCC, Gartner, Interviews, SNL Kagan.
  • U.S. Census, TDG Research, Leichtman Research Group.
  • Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG,
  • Nielsen’s 2015 Total Audience Report and 2011 Cross-Platform Report, WSJ, Financial Times, The Guardian, Automated
  • Insights.
  • Conviva, Deloitte.
  • Deloitte, Ericsson ConsumerLab, Nielsen.
  • ComScore, Deloitte, Verizon Digital Media Services.
  • HBO, Nielsen, Showtime.

Compendium on Ad Blocking in Advertising Age through 2015-09-05


IAB Explores Its Options to Fight Ad Blockers, Including Lawsuits; ; In Advertising Age; 2015-09-04.
Teaser: Trade Org Has Held Two Summits This Summer to Map a Course of Action

Mentioned

  • Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
  • A Summit Meeting, New York City, 2015-07-09.
  • PageFair, Adobe
    tl;dr → that same report is endlessly recited unquestioningly
    The 2015 Ad Blocking Report: The Cost of Ad Blocking; PageFair with Adobe; 2015-08-09; 17 pages; landing, previously noted.
  • Causality
    • Flash is deprecated
    • HTML5 is promoted
    • Viewability metrics cause blocking be measured & managed.

Options

  • make better ads
  • publishers ask consumers to pull shields down
  • lockout [publishers refuse to serve consumers who wear adblock]
  • litigation [c.f. an application of the DMCA]
  • countermeasures [technical means, via suppliers]
  • paywalls
  • native advertising

Countermeasures

(vendors)

  • PageFair
  • Secret Media
  • Sourcepoint
  • Yavli

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Scott Cunningham
    • senior VP, IAB
    • general manager, [IAB] Technology Lab.
  • David Moore
    • President, WPP Digital
    • Chairman, Xaxis

Via: backfill.


How Digital-Native Publishers Are Dealing With Ad Blocking, , 2015-09-03.
Teaser: Mic, Quartz, Vox Media Turn to Branded Content, Tech Platforms’ Apps

Mentions

  • BuzzFeed
  • Mic
  • Quartz
  • Vox Media
  • Ad Block Plus
  • Countermeasures
    • advertorials
    • branded content
    • custom branded content
    • native advertising
    • promotional placements
    • sponsorships
  • Distribution [contra running The Portal]
    • Apple News
    • Facebook Instant Articles
    • Flipboard
  • Dean Murphy
  • Exemplar
    • a page at Mic with the story of the renaming of Mt McKinley to Denali
    • work performed by Ad Age staff
    • [very confusing, read carefully] <quote>When Ad Age checked out Mic’s aforementioned Denali article using an iPhone’s Safari browser, the ad-carrying page weighed in at 4.11 megabytes, which is 1.51 megabytes heavier than the ad-free desktop version but 14.59 megabytes lighter than the ad-full desktop page.</quote>.
    • Tabulation
      Safari iOS iPhone ad-carrying 4.11 MB
      Safari OS/X Mac (Laptop) ad-free 2.60 MB
      Safari OS/X Mac (Laptop) ad-full 18.70 MB

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Chris Altchek, CEO, Mic
  • Jim Bankoff, CEO, Vox Media
  • Joy Robins, seinor VP-global revenue and strategy, Quartz

TV Networks Confront Ad Blockers Erasing Their Commercials Online, , 2015-08-31.
Teaser: CBS Blocks the Blockers While Fox Explores Friendlier Ad Models

Mentions

  • ABC
    • ABC.com
  • Fox
    • Fox.com
  • Hulu
  • NBC
    • NBC.com
  • Universal
  • Ad Block
  • Chrome
  • streaming episodes of TV shows delivered off of web sites.
  • CBS Interactive
  • several “declined to comment”

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Eric Franchi, co-founder, Undertone
  • Joe Marchese, president-advanced ad products, Fox Networks Group; ex-founder TrueX (acquired by Fox 2014-12).
  • David Morris, chief revenue officer, CBS Interactive

Ad Blocking Is a Growing Problem. What’s the Fix?, , , 2015-06-19.
Teaser: Publishers Including CBS Interactive, Forbes, DailyMail Weigh Their Options

Mentions

  • Eyeo
  • factoids are recited
  • UC browser
    • built-in ad blocking
    • 500M consumers
    • Regional popularity
      • India
      • China,
  • Maxthon Browser
    • built-in ad blocking
    • partnership with Ad Block Plus
    • 120M consumers
  • “I love my audience, but fuck you, ad blockers — 20% of my revenue is gone.” attributed to Mike Germano, Vice
  • Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
  • Interested in solutions
    • CBS Interactive
    • Daily Mail
    • Forbes
    • Vice
  • Have paid off Ad Block (Eyeo)
    • Amazon
    • Google
    • Microsoft
  • Native advertisers
    • BuzzFeed
    • Outbrain
  • Fremium, paywall, subscriptions
    and more so: behind the paywall they still have ads

    • The New York Times (NYT)
    • Pandora
    • Spotify
    • The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)
    • YouTube

Options

  1. Pay the Ad Blockers
  2. Go Native
  3. Ask Consumers for Sympathy
  4. Block Content From Consumers Who Use Ad Blockers [The Nuclear Option]
  5. Fremium Model

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Ben Barokas, founder, Sourcepoint
  • Sean Blanchfield, CEO, PageFair
  • Scott Cunningham, IAB
  • Mike Germano, Chief Digital Officer, Vice [Media]
  • Dax Hamman, senior VP-business development and product, Rubicon Project.
  • Jason Kint, CEO, Digital Content Next (a trade booster)
  • David Morris
    • chief revenue officer, CBS Interactive
    • chairman, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
  • Jon Steinberg, CEO, DailyMail
  • Ben Williams, director, communications & operations, Eyeo

Publishers Watch Closely as Adoption of Ad Blocking Tech Grows, , 2015-02-15.
Teaser: IAB Says It Is a Growing Problem

Mentions

  • Ad Block Plus
  • ClarityRay,
  • bought by Yahoo
  • IAB Annual Leadership Meeting
  • Claimed to have paid off Ad Block Plus (Eyeo)
    • Amazon
    • Google
    • Microsoft

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Mark Addison, press relations, Ad Block Plus
  • Eric Franchi
    • co-founder, Undertone
    • board member, IAB
  • Mark Howard, chief revenue officer, Forbes.
  • Serge Matta, CEO, comScore
  • David Morris, Chairman, IAB
  • Mike Zaneis, exec VP-public policy and general counsel, IAB

 

What you don’t know about Internet algorithms is hurting you | Washington Post

What you don’t know about Internet algorithms is hurting you. (And you probably don’t know very much!); Caitlin Dewey; In The Washington Post; 2015-03-23.

tl;dr => entertainment uses algorithms, algorithms are bad

Mentions

Previously

In archaeological order, newer more derivative works on top, older original matieral down below

Concepts

The branded concepts of the activism

Who

Pantheon of the activists, cited
  • Eli Pariser
    attributed as an activist
  • Christian Sandvik
    attributed as a communications researcher
  • Zeynep Tufekci
    attributed as a sociologist

Actualities

Artwork

This is just a silly & transparent ploy to make a connection to a non-technical audience.  Everyone can relate to Important Art.

Progression: Triptych

OkCupid Compatibility CalculationHello WorldVia: backfill

Personalization & Interest Graphs

Data Sources

a.k.a. pure-play (3rd-party) data providers

  • Expect Labs
  • Google Now
  • Gravity
    • Amit Kapur, CEO
  • MIT Media Lab
  • Nara, Nara.me, Nara Logics, Inc.
    • A cluster of companies, perhaps
    • Tom Copeman, founder
    • Nathan Wilson, CTO
    • Digital DNATM; trade name of the auto-generated profiles
    • Something about a neural network in “big processes”
    • Why? <quote>“The solution we came up with for Nara is called the ‘why’ button,” Nathan Wilson says. “If a user clicks on this, it will tell them what connections the neural network drew on to make a particular suggestion.”</quote> ref
    • Major customer: SingTel
  • Outbrain
  • Ranker
  • Syntertainment
    • Will Wright
    • Term: “decimated reality,” reality aggregator; contra “augmented reality”

Products

Users of the data sources

Theory

Attributions are from the TNW articles, not the promotions of the works.

Promotions

Largely recirculating against their own (TNW) material …  The NSA, Guardian, PRISM stuff seems to be there because of some sort of privacy angle, and it recirculates well.