Tech and Media Outlook 2016 | Activate

Tech and Media Outlook 2015; Activate at WSJD Live Conference; 2015-10-20; 137 slides; landing.


slides


Mentions

  • boosterism: <quote>CAGR based on values prior to rounding.</quote>, slide 2.

Listicle

Substantially, the table of contents.

  1. The average american spends more time on tech & media than work or sleep
  2. Messaging will blow past social networks as the dominant media activity
  3. The next big winners in streaming audio are already (quietly) here
  4. The long-awaited cord cutting moment is still far off
  5. There is a “cable killer” coming, but it won’t look like you expect
  6. E-sports & wagering will change the game in gaming
  7. Good luck getting rich in the app store!
  8. These companies are grabbing all the money in consumer tech & media
  9. One simple way to predict what tech & media players will do next to compete

1. Attention

  • The product is attention, the purpose of media is the capturing of attention.
  • Minutes-per-Visitor per Month
    • Pandora → 1,200 min/month
    • Facebook → 1,200 min/month
    • Google → 700 min/month
    • Netflix → 500 min/month
    • YouTube → 400 min/month
    • All Those Messaging Apps → 300 min/month
      • Twitch
      • Kik
      • Snapchat
      • Something else with a ping cloud smudge logo
    • Yahoo → 300 min/month
    • Instagram → 200 min/month
    • The Linkbaiters, Old-Line East Coast Media, eCommerce → 0 min/month (rounding error)
  • Bubble economics, “billion dollar businesses” capturing seconds-per-month
    • HelloFresh
    • Vice
    • ZocDoc
    • BuzzFeed
    • Shazam
    • Vox
  • Categories
    • Video
    • Audio
    • Social Media
    • Gaming (actual games, not <euphemism>gambling</euphemism>)
  • Something about multitasking.

Claims

  • Because of overlaps, there are 31:28 hours:minutes of manageable attention per day.
  • Half is spent on media-type activities.
  • Selectivity is high on MAU basis
    • 79% of time on 5 apps out of 27 available.
    • 44% on 5 websites out of 96 available.
    • 100% on 18 channels out of 194 available.

2. Messaging

  • Cultures
    • WhatsApp
    • Facebook Messenger
    • WeChat
    • Instagram
    • Snapchat
    • Pinterest
  • Categories
    • Social Messaging
    • Social Network
    • Hybrid: Social Messaging & Social Network (either, or both)
  • Minutes-per-Week per Month
    • Facebook → 300 min/week
    • Tumblr → 230 min/week
    • Talk → 220 min/week
    • WhatsApp → 175 min/week
    • Pinterest → 140 min/week
    • Instagram → 140 min/week
    • Kik → 80 min/week
    • Something with a purple phone icon → 80 min/week
    • WeChat → 80 min/week
    • LINE → 30 min/week
    • Something with a blue chat bubble and an horizontal lightning bolt → 10 min/week.
  • Messaging competes with telecom-served Short Message System (SMS)
    • Driven by pricing: 63x more expensive abroad than US.
    • Very expensive in the U.S. (for what one gets).
    • Messaging apps are flat-fee or $0.
  • Messaging apps turn into a “platform”
    Features

    • Business storefronts (bot-based businesses)
    • Chat (of course)
    • Channels (television-style bespoke content)
    • Games
    • Music
    • Local commerce
    • Payments
    • Search
    • Taxi
    • Television (replaying broadcast television)
    • Virtual Assistant
  • Revenue Models, slide 34
    • Ads
    • Stickers
    • Games
    • Taxi
    • Payments
    • App Store
    • Music
    • TV
    • Subscription Fees
    • eCommerce
    • Search

Category

In descending order of MAU, slide 19

  • WhatsApp
  • Facebook Messenger
  • WeChat
  • QQ Mobile
  • Gchat
  • iMessage
  • Viber
  • LINE
  • Snapchat
  • Kik
  • Telegram
  • Tango
  • KakaoTalk
  • Hike
  • Zalo
  • Path Talk
  • FireChat
  • YikYak
  • SOMA
  • Jott
  • Nimbuzz
  • Microsoft Send
  • Vurb
  • Zolo

In some order, slides 20-30+

  • LINE
  • WeChat
  • Facebook Messenger
  • WhatsApp
  • Snapchat
  • Vurb
  • Pockettour
  • WeBank
  • Jobot
  • digit
  • Magic
  • Assist
  • Slack

Claims

  • A Buullion new Users by 2018
  • 4B Internet Users (out of ~8B on Earth).
  • Nearly all are abroad, and in “developing” markets.

3. Streaming (Audio)

  • 4 hours/day US for 13+
  • It’s a teen/young-peeple thing:
    • 13-17 → 55% streaming
    • 55+ → 6% streaming
  • Experience is bad
    <quote>inferior user experiences leave engagement lagging</quote>
  • Revenue Models
    • Advertising
    • Subscriptions
  • RedTube (YouTube Red)
  • Only 10% (more) consumers are open to pay for streaming subscriptions
    original research, Activate, panel N=? (they asked around the office?)
  • Podcasts are a thing.
    • demographics → upscale, young, educated
    • format has plenty of room for advertisement load.

Categories

  • Terrestrial broadcast (non-digital)
  • Satellite Radio
  • Streaming
  • Downloads
  • Television (Music Television)
  • Other

Instances

  • A cast of thousands
  • Enumerated on Slide 37.

Also, slide 41

  • Pandora
  • iHeart RADIO

In order of reach, descending; slide 42.

  • YouTube
  • Pandora
  • Spotify
  • Vevo
  • Hlu
  • MTV
  • VH-1
  • Yahoo! Radio
  • Rhapsody
  • Slacker Radio
  • Apple Music

In order of decreasing library size, slide 46.

  • YouTube
  • SoundCloud
  • Spotify
  • Apple Music
  • Pandora

Organized by curation type (human vs algorithm), slide 48, 49.

  • Infinite Tracks
  • Hype Machine
  • Pitchfork
  • SoundCloud
  • Apple Music
  • Google Music
  • Spotify
  • last.fm
  • Pandora
  • Shazam
  • imeem
  • Musicmatch
  • Urge
  • Ping
  • Grooveshark
  • Slacker Radio
  • Sonos

Claims

  • Four Buullion USD, now, US.
  • Ten Buullion USD, globally, 2020.
  • Audio is a multitasking activity (counts double, paired with another activity).

4. Cord Cutting

  • Over the Top (OTT)
    • HBO Now
    • SHO
  • TV Everywhere
  • Binge watching
    • Millennial → 83%
    • Generation X → 74$
    • Boomer → 56%
  • Big Screen Television
    is enjoyed by all ages(!); but Boomers like it more than Millennials
    <ahem>Seems more like Boomers (who are richer & own houses) own more big screen TVs.</ahem>
  • Two-box (four quadrant) model of consumer behavior on video
    • Linear Appointment Viewing = Long Form, High Production Cost & Live.
    • Social Networking Video = Short Form, Low Production Cost & Live
    • Video On-Demand = Long Form, High Production Cost & Recorded
    • Studio-Generated Content = Short Form, Low Production Value & Recorded.

Theses

  • The Future of TV is “Apps”
    • But that is independent of cord cutting
    • But that won’t decide how payment is attributed.
  • The Pay TV transition is “different”
    • not a technology issue
    • an experience issue
    • an access (licensing) issue
Reasoning
  • Users →still hooked on traditional TV
    (whatever this means; redundant with the other reasons)
  • Content → still licensed to pay TV (e.g. sports); not availabl in digital
  • Pricing → digital TV is still expensive
    • Pay TV bundles at low clst (though sell crap in with the desirable)all)
    • Digital TV a la carte is very expensive in aggregate
  • Experience → traditional TV wins
    • traditional is “simple”; & “reliable”
    • digital is “complex” and “unreliable”

Claims

  • (Linear) Television is 72% of all viewing
  • Viewing time is 6h/day, monthly, 2012-2015E
  • $185B/year US
    • $110B Aubscriptions (cable, add-on services)
    • $75B Advertising (of any kind)
  • Have hit “Peak Cable”

5. The Cable Killer (is X)

6. E-Sports & Gambling

7. All App Stores Are Closed

8. The Winner Take All Market Dynamics

Sources

As cited

  • PwC, IFPI, eMarketer, IBIS, SuperData, NewZoo, IBIS.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Telegraph, Edison Research, We Are Social, eMarketer, Nielsen, National Sleep Foundation, Deloitte, SNL Kagan, Sandvine, Ipsos, comScore, Global Web Index, OECD.
  • Nielsen, comScore, Ars Technica, TechCrunch, Internetlivestats, Digitalsmiths.
  • Edison, We Are Social, eMarketer, Nielsen, Deloitte, SNL Kagan, Sandvine, Ipsos, comScore, Global Web Index, Pew Research Center, Flurry Insights, Informate, NetMarketShare, Statcounter.
  • Edison, eMarketer, Nielsen, Sandvine, US Media Consulting, Cisco, Experientia, Media UK, Global Web Index, Secom, Ofcom, GroupM.
  • Google, Microsoft, Aldebaran, Disney / New York Times.
  •  Business Insider, Fortune, Mashable, Instagram, AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes, Tech in Asia, eMarketer, Compete,
  • GlobalWebIndex, eMarketer, ITO.
  • AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes.
  • AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, TechCrunch, Forbes, Tech in Asia, VentureBeat, Kakao, LINE, Viber.
  • Gallup, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Colombia Reports, World Bank.
  • GlobalWebIndex, Tech in Asia.
  • AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance.
  • LINE.com
  • LINE Payment map, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Gallup, Colombia Reports, nations.org.
  • GlobalWebIndex, Facebook Messenger App, facebook.com.
  • Pew Research, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple.
  • Snapchat.com, Re/Code, The Information.
  • TechCrunch, vurb.com, CNBC.
  • Fortune, WSJ, Skift, TechCrunch,
  • angel.co, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance.
  • slack.com, VentureBeat, TechCrunch.
  • Apple App Store, Google Play.
  • Nomura, Andreessen Horowitz, Forbes, TechInAsia, The Economist.
  • Edison Research / Triton Digital.
  • Recording Industry Association of America, PwC, Radio Advertising Bureau, Ofcom.
  • comScore, Nielsen/Arbitron, Flurry.
  • U.S. Census, Edison Research.
  • SNL Kagan, SESAC.
  • Spotify, Pandora.
  • Apple, SoundCloud, Spotify, Pandora,
  • IFPI.
  • Pew Research, Edison Research
  • Midroll, IAB, US Census, Edison Research,
  • Marketing.science, New York Magazine, Current, Ad Age,
  • Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG,
  • BIA/Kelsey, Digital TV Research, eMarketer, Google, Hulu, Netflix, PWC, SNL
  • Kagan, Statista Digital Market Outlook, TDG.
  • Leichtman Research Group, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • CDC, CTIA, FCC, Gartner, Interviews, SNL Kagan.
  • U.S. Census, TDG Research, Leichtman Research Group.
  • Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG,
  • Nielsen’s 2015 Total Audience Report and 2011 Cross-Platform Report, WSJ, Financial Times, The Guardian, Automated
  • Insights.
  • Conviva, Deloitte.
  • Deloitte, Ericsson ConsumerLab, Nielsen.
  • ComScore, Deloitte, Verizon Digital Media Services.
  • HBO, Nielsen, Showtime.

Chat Apps, Messaging Apps and Teens

A press cycle off the original WSJ piece, picked up by Reuters.

In archaeological order

Mentions

  • Kik, Waterloo, Ontario, CA; 40M users, launch 2010; Ted Livingston, age 25, CEO
  • SnapChat
  • WhatsApp; subscription $1/year; founded 2009; 18B messages/day; “hundreds of millions” of users
  • MessageMe
  • GroupMe, First Round Capital, investment 2010-late
  • Viber, Talmon Marco, CEO, Viber; Cyprus (!)
  • KakaoTalk, Kakao Inc. (KR, Asia); 80M users; a game platform; Yahoo! Japan takes 50% stake in Kakao JP; Sirgoo Lee, co-CEO; $4M/month revenue from games.
  • LINE, NHN Corp. (CN, Asia); 120M users; Jeanie Han, CEO, Line USA
  • WeChat, Tencent Holdings Ltd. (CN, Asia); 400M users; Zynga partnership
  • ChatOn, Samsung; launch 2011-late
  • Facebook: Instagram & Messenger (was Beluga), Poke, Messenger, Camera
  • Color Quotes
    • Rich Miner, a partner, Google Ventures
    • Charles Hudson, a partner, SoftTech VC
    • Jim Goetz, a partner, Sequoia Capital.
    • Kent Goldman, a partner, First Round, backed MessageMe.
    • Talmon Marco, CEO, Viber; Cyprus (!)
    • Sirgoo Lee, co-CE, Kakao Corp.
    • Peter Deng, director of product management, Facebook
    • Jeanie Han, CEO, Line USA