tl;dr → Yes. Betteridge’s Law fails.
ahem → No. Betteridge’s Law holds. Surely no one can know the future, and anyone who says they can is either high or a fool, perhaps both. One can problematize quibble on the epistemology sense of the word “to know,” if you think you have time for that sort of thing.
The promotional build running up to the release of that certain sequel (2017) to the movie Blade Runner (1982) which is in turn based on a short novel by Philip K. Dick entitled Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (Doubleday 1968) [Answer: No (whereas Androids, after the Ice Cream Sandwich release, are functionally people too, being as they feel pain and love, as eloquently and forcefully testified by Rutger Hauer in a monologue performed so memorably on that dark & rainy night), again, Betteridge's Law holds, c.f.Jimi Wales' Wiki, Jimi Wales' Wiki].
A means & method for producing new predictions, which is better.
Theory-Driven [not Theory-Laden].
Whereas sociology is either slow journalism [documentation] or activism [promotion] in service to personal ideals.
Replicatability is not claimed. It’s a best practice for high fidelity journalism.
<quote>What is unique is a rigorous theory-driven attempt to not only document but to test explanations for patterns of societal change empirically </quote>
The enumerated [cultural] changes are features of the ecology [our ecologies].
<quote>This emerging work suggests <snide>asserts</snide> that among the most powerful contributors to cultural changes in areas like individualism, gender equality, and happiness are shifts in essential features of our ecologies.</quote>
This schema was shown in animal behavior; now it is replicated with people [our people].
<quote>The idea that variations in ecological dimensions and cues like scarcity or population density might be linked to behavioral adaptations has been widely explored in animal kingdom, and recently started to gain prominence as a way to explain variations in human behavior.</quote>
It’s an “implications” paper:
<quote>but also has fundamental implications for psychometric assumptions and replicability in psychological science.</quote>
<quote>Neither experts nor lay people do much better than chance
as “proven” in: Tetlock, 2006; Tetlock & Gardner, 2016.</quote>
<quote>psychological phenomena unfold within a temporal context,</quote> → <fancier>events occur over spans of time; therefor psychological events occur over spans of time<fancier>,
the insight is attributed to Kurt Lewin and Lev Vygotsky; unnamed “other theorists.”
A focus on uniqueness and independence and emphasis of self-expression (or not.
Obvious: equality between the [two] genders, which are named as: Male and Female (Female and Male).
Obvious: that buddhist thing; as evidenced in self-attestation surveys.
The WEIRD Population
The white American middle-class college students.
References (at least):
Joseph Nenrich, Steven J. Heine, Ara Norenzayan; The Weirdest People in the World; In Some Journal, Surely; 2009-03-05; 58 pages (23,703 words).
Cited herein: Henrich, Heine, & Norenzayan, 2010.
Teaser: How representative are experimental findings from American university students? What do we really know about human psychology?
Isaac Asimov, boffo.
Honorific: <quote>the seminal science fiction author — inventor of the fictional discipline of psycho-history.</quote>
Gerd Hofstede, documentarian.
Kurt Lewin, theorist.
Opus: Quatrains, many years ago.
Lev Vygotsky, theorist.
model cultural change
on a large scale.
using cross-temporal data
using theory or theories,
using theories derived from behavioral ecology.
“can usher in” [what?]
a new era in research,
a new era in research social psychological and personality research.
unclear… if this means more better hard Sci-Fi or more sooth can be said:
more better prognostications.
Method of Prognostication
far future: 2047 → 2117.
Obtain the Salubrious Result.
Events in the areas of…
specifically: behavioral scientists,
specifically: [hired] regulators and [elected] politicians.
as such: the laity, the general public.
generally, any and all analysts.
Drift, across time, same place
Results in social science are idiosyncratic and perishable. To wit:
<quote>There is no guarantee that the structure of psychological constructs (and their relationship to each other) remains consistent over time – a critical insight for anybody studying individual differences or the interaction of the social context and personality.</quote>
Drift, across time, different places
Results in social science are idiosyncratic to the place and perishable. To wit:
Second, in behavioral and management sciences that focus on cross-cultural comparisons, we need to ensure that our measurements are made contemporaneously.</quote>
Documentation practices produces records as evidence; such cannot be used to as inputs to a reasoning process. To wit:
<quote><snip/> for those interested in the ways socio-cultural context impacts human minds, the new field of cultural change enables better tests of theories regarding the origin and evolution of cross-cultural variations than the cross-sectional approaches that are currently standard in the field. Time series data permit stronger inferences regarding the causes of cultural variation than is possible from datasets where putative causes and outcomes are measured only once and at the same time.</quote>
Implications, there are implications; this is important work.
<quote><snip/> have some implications for debates about replicability.
This is not to say that cultural change is likely the explanation for many or most failures to replicate previous findings, but when there is a large temporal remove between the original studies and replication attempts, it may be wise to consider this when interpreting any discrepancies or changes in effect sizes.
Greenfield, 2017; Varnum & Grossmann, 2017.
Drift, invalid population sampling
Whereas psychology “research” is done on The WEIRD Population, the results are incorrect.
<quote>Most samples we collect are “WEIRD,” consisting largely of white American middle-class college students who it turns out are not psychologically representative of humanity. But perhaps more importantly emerging insights from the cross-temporal study of psychological processes suggest <snide>assert<snide> that as psychologists, whether we are aware of it or not, we are studying a moving target.
Changes in baby naming practices in the US from the 1880’s to the 2010s and predictions for future trends through 2030.
from Grossmann and Varnum (2015).
Twenge & Campbell
Self-esteem, narcissism, and intelligence have increased in Western societies since 1980.
…as evidenced in e.g. involvement in civic organizations and voter turn-out.
Gender equality has risen, in “The West,” since 1950.
<quote>over the past 60-70 years.<quote>
Varnum & Grossmann, 2016.
Individualist attitudes, practices, and relational patterns have increased in 60+ countries
Grossmann & Varnum, 2015.
Santos, Varnum & Grossmann, 2017.
Changes in The Environmemt, generalized, cause changes in Behavior, generalized;
This occurs in individuals and composes into groups.
><quote>The idea that variations in ecological dimensions and cues like scarcity or population density might be linked to behavioral adaptations has been widely explored in animal kingdom, and recently started to gain prominence as a way to explain variations in human behavior.</quote>
White-collar employment correlates with individualism.
<quote><snip/>a shift toward greater affluence and white- (vs. blue) collar occupations was the most robust ecological predictor of levels of individualism over time, further shifts in levels of SES consistently preceded changes in levels of individualism in America – a finding that has since been extended and cross-validated by our team in a study examining the rise of individualism around the globe.</quote>
Grossmann & Varnum, 2015.
Santos, Varnum, & Grossmann, 2017.
Disease causes sexism.
The disease level cause the sexism level.
Infectious disease level decline causes the gender equaltiy increase.
<quote>It turned out that a decline in levels of infectious disease was the most robust factor predictor of rising gender equality, a finding we were able to replicate in the UK, and in both societies we found evidence that changes in pathogen levels preceded shifts in gender equality</quote>
Varnum & Grossmann, 2016.
Happiness has decreased in the United States since 1800.
<quote>Research examining affect in books and newspaper articles over a 200-year span shows a long-term decline in American happiness.</quote>
Iliev, Hoover, Dehghani, & Axelrod, 2016.
Misery causes inverse happiness
Whereas well-being is functionally the same as happiness, the Misery Index measures inverse happiness.
<quote>Levels of well-being in [these] studies appeared linked to Okun’s Misery Index, an economic indicator that combines unemployment and inflation rates, consistent with the idea that scarcity or abundance of resources matters for happiness.</quote>
Iliev et al., 2016.
Only the level of envy matters.
Whereas well-being is functionally the same as happiness,
and envy being a manifestation of differential happiness,
and happiness decreases as inequality increases;
thus absolute levels of happiness do not matter,
the differences between the happiness levels matters,
the level of envy matters.
<quote>Another study exploring the cause of changes in levels of well-being over time in the US found strong links to levels of economic inequality, suggesting <snide>asserting without proof</snide> that happiness decreases as inequality increases, suggesting<snide>asserting</snide> that not only absolute levels of resources but their distribution in an environment (what behavioral ecologists call “resource patchiness”) help to explain changes in well-being over time.</quote>
Oishi, Kesebir, & Diener, 2011.
Ellis, B. J., Bianchi, J., Griskevicius, V., & Frankenhuis, W. E. (2017). Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(4), 561–587. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693054
Flynn, J. R. (1987). Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: What IQ tests really measure. Psychological Bulletin, 101(2), 171 – 191. DOI:10.1037/0033-2909.101.2.171.
Greenfield, P. M. (2017). Cultural change over time: Why replicability should not be the gold standard in psychological science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(5), 762-771. DOI:10.1177/1745691617707314
Grossmann, I. & Varnum, M. E. W. (2015). Social structure, infectious diseases, disasters, secularism, and cultural change in America. Psychological Science, 26(3) 311-324. DOI:10.1177/0956797614563765
Henrich, J., Heine, S.J., & Norenzayan, A. (2010). The weirdest people in the world? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 33, 62–135. doi:10.1017/S0140525X0999152X
Hofstede, G., Hofstede, G. J., & Minkov, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Software of the mind (revised and expanded). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill I
liev, R., Hoover, J., Dehghani, M., & Axelrod, R. (2016). Linguistic positivity in historical texts reflects dynamic environmental and psychological factors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the U.S.A, 113(49), 7871-7879. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1612058113
Oishi, S., Kesebir, S., & Diener, E. (2011). Income inequality and happiness. Psychological science, 22(9), 1095-1100. DOI:10.1177/0956797611417262
Putnam, R. D. (1995). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. Journal of Democracy, 6(1), 65-78.
Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. In Culture and politics (pp. 223-234). Palgrave Macmillan US.
Santos, H. C., Varnum, M. E. W., Grossmann, I. (2017). Global increases in individualism. Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/0956797617700622
Sng, O., Neuberg, S. L., Varnum, M. E., & Kenrick, D. T. (2017). The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 112(5), 736 754. DOI:10.1037/pspi0000086
Tetlock, P. E. (2006). Expert Political Judgment. How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Broadway Books.
Trahan, L. H., Stuebing, K. K., Fletcher, J. M., & Hiscock, M. (2014). The Flynn effect: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 140(5), 1332 – 1360. DOI:10.1037/a0037173
Twenge, J. M., & Campbell, W. K. (2001). Age and birth cohort differences in self-esteem: A cross-temporal meta-analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(4), 321-344. DOI:10.1207/S15327957PSPR0504_3
Twenge, J. M., Konrath, S., Foster, J. D., Keith Campbell, W., & Bushman, B. J. (2008). Egos inflating over time: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of the Narcissistic Personality Inventory. Journal of Personality, 76(4), 875-902. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6494.2008.00507.x
Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2017). Cultural change: The how and the why. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617699971
Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2016). Pathogen prevalence is associated with cultural changes in gender equality. Nature Human Behaviour, 1(0006). doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0003
Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. A. (2017). Choosing prediction over explanation in psychology: lessons from machine learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693393
“irascible” [submitted into the Tier 1 category of Mitigated Speech]
Carnegie Mellon University
What sanctimonious twaddle, attributed to Carole Cadwalladr.
<quote<First they came for the booksellers and I did not speak out because I was not a bookseller. Next they came for the taxi drivers etc etc. Then baristas, divorce lawyers, artists, journalists… there are not going to be an awful lot of jobs of any description left. How any of us are going to be earning a living in 20 years’ time, in 10 years’ time, is something that most of us aren’t thinking about. In this light, building a startup that has a 90% chance of failure looks like a pretty smart option.</quote>
It is a bubble
No one cares.
The dumb money is piling in now
Aircall, “Airbnb for Paris”
Esplorio, “automated travel log from phone GPS trails,” Oxford, UK.
Patrolo, “b2b proofreading service”
Groupon, a unicorpse.
For color, background & verisimilitude; in rough order of appearance
Niko Bonatsos, staff, General Catalyst Partners
Tod Francis, staff, Shasta Ventures.
Michael, Anonymous Coward; some Japanese company.
Tim Fernando, age 31, co-founder, Esplorio (above).
Sam Altman, president, Y Combinator.
Bill Gates, quoted from Disrupt 2014.
Bill Gurley, partner, Benchmark.
Marcus Hawkins, British citizen, Norfolk, UK, Patrolo
Lukas Alner, Slovakia, conference participant
Henry Hu, Hong Kong, CafeX
Vinod Khosla, promoter
Eric Risser, founder, unnamed startup, Dublin, IE; graphics arts.
HTTP header enrichment allows mobile operators to annotate HTTP connections via the use of a wide range of request headers. Operators employ proxies to introduce such headers for operational purposes, and—as recently widely publicized—also to assist advertising programs in identifying the subscriber responsible for the originating traffic, with significant consequences for the user’s privacy. In this paper, we use data collected by the Netalyzr network troubleshooting service over 16 months to identify and characterize HTTP header enrichment in modern mobile networks. We present a timeline of HTTP header usage for 299 mobile service providers from 112 countries, observing three main categories:
unique user and device identifiers (e.g., IMEI and IMSI)
headers related to advertising programs, and
headers associated with network operations.
HTTP header enrichment
Verizon Precision Marketingt Insights
The IETF’s Service Function Chaining (SFC) standards are vague about whether injected headers are good or bad (should be removed).
Collected: 2013-11 → 2015-03.
Belief: no M?NO is yet cracking TLS to insert HTTP headers into the encrypted stream.
Suggested as an ID-less methods of identification: device-unique allocation of the (routable) IPv6 space to identify the device, in addition to routing to it.
RFC 7239 – Forwarded HTTP Extension; A. Peterson, M. Milsson (Opera); IETF; 2014-06.
2014-10 → Vodaphone (ZA) has ceased their practices in 2014-10, nothing to see there, now.
2014-11 → AT&T has ceased their practices 2014-11.
2015-03 → Verion was not respecting opt-out (as evidenced by not inserting the X-UIDH header) through 2015-03.
Verion continues the X-UIDH header insertion.
The X-Forwarded-For header carries extra freight in T-Mobile (DE)
Carrier-Grade NAT (CGN) at 100.64.0.0/10 per RFC 6598 – IANA-Reserved IPv4 Prefix for Shared Address Space (2012-04)
Table 1 & Table 2; Table 3 (not shown)
unstated, an identifier
Access Point Name (APN)
Location-Based Services (LBS)
Mobile Country Code (MCC)
Mobile Network Code (MNC)
Mobile Network Operator (MNO)
Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO)
Hong Kong Metro (subway) (MTR)
Service Function Chaining (SFC)
Transport-Layer Security (TLS)
Unique Identifier (UID); contra the specific UUID or GUID
Virtual Private Network (VPN)
A significant number of newpaper articles, vulgarizations & bloggist opinements.
Digital Advertising Alliance. Guidance to Marketers for Microsoft IE10 “Do Not Track” Default Setting. 2012. Best Available: Statement from the Digital Advertising Alliance (DAA), press release, Digital Advertising Alliance (DAA), 2012-05-31. Teaser: Digital Advertising Alliance (DAA) Comments on Microsoft Decision to Embed Do Not Track in IE 10 Set “on” by Default.
C. Mulliner. Privacy leaks in mobile phone internet access. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Innovations in Services, Networks and Clouds (ICIN, 2010.
A Petersson, M Nilsson. Forwarded http extension. IETF. Work in Progress, 2012. (becomes) RFC 7239 – Forwarded HTTP Extension; A. Peterson, M. Milsson (Opera); IETF; 2014-06.
N. Vallina-Rodriguez, J. Amann, C. Kreibich, N. Weaver, V. Paxson. A tangled mass: The android root certificate stores. In Proceedings of ACM Conference NEXT (CoNEXT), 2014.
N. Vallina-Rodriguez, S. Sundaresan, C. Kreibich, N. Weaver, V. Paxson. Beyond the radio: Illuminating the higher layers of mobile networks. In Proceedings of The ACM International Conference on
Mobile Systems, Applications, and Services (MobiSys), 2015.
<quote>The crowdfunding approach to basic income has shown some promise: A group of more than 19,000 basic-income advocates in Germany have funded11 people so far with living stipends of 1,000 euros per month, no strings attached. The first few winners, chosen by a lottery, started receiving their basic incomes in 2014-09. The eleventh winner was announced 2015-05-07.</quote>
“I did not realize how unfree we all are,” attributed to the commentariat
North American Basic Income Guarantee Congress
Robots & Unemployment
Something about how robots took all the jobs, so therefore “we” “need” the Guaranteed Basic Income.
In order of appearance in the piece
What Clever Robots Mean For Jobs, Timothy Aeppel; The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). 2015-02-24.
Teaser: Experts rethink belief that tech always lifts employment as machines take on skills once thought uniquely human
The Future of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave; staff; The Economist.; 2014-01-18.
Teaser: Previous technological innovation has always delivered more long-run employment, not less. But things can change.
tl;dr => of the rebuttal: not proven
In fact a plurality-to-majority of the clipart factoid evidence marshalled supports the theory.
As clickbait-linkbait fodder, she rebuts the predictions of 2000 from the vantage point of 2014 … for the lulz.
Millennials will be more religious
Rebuttal: fail, cites Pew Research on religiousity (belief in God)
School uniforms will influence Millennials profoundly
Rebuttal: fail, school uniforms are not a major issue in 2014
Millennials will be collectivists who embrace the military and national service
Rebuttal: unproven; cites a Harvard Institute of Politics study on trust in (U.S. Government) institutions
Millennials will confront income inequality
Rebuttal: correct, income inequality is the bees knees in the milieu these days, isn’t it?
Millennials will want stable jobs, not entrepreneurship
Rebuttal: unproven, cites a study by a booster organization, Young Invincibles, speaking to career desire in support of Global Entrepreneurship Week
Millennials will create a more modest form of courtship that returns to traditional gender roles
Rebuttal: unproven, how else would a more modest form of courtship develp except by manifesting as moral panic over “hookup culture” that is at once dispensed with as shirill and overwroght and twice towards a more settled behavior?
Millennials will marry earlier and have children earlier
Rebuttal: unproven, cites Pew Research Center studies with the conjunction “married and have children” but does not break out the “have children” separately from the “marriage” These are known to be separated now.
If a crisis of historic proportions occurs, Millennials could create a form of 21st-century fascism
Rebuttal: unproven, one could reasonably argue that the Patriot Act and successors, Homeland Security concerns, militarized police, unanswerable police and domestic monitoring are well on the way down the path here.
Tales From the Millennials’ Sexual Revolution; Alex Morris; In Rolling Stone; 2014-03-31; previously styled
Teaser: This generation is radically rethinking straight sex and marriage, but at what cost? In Part One of a two-part series, Rolling Stone goes under the covers in search of new approaches to intimacy, commitment and hooking up.
<quote>As consumers, we should understand ad-avoidance as a way of setting a price on our time and attention. For the past century, we’ve arguably been selling it too cheap, trading it all for a few decent sitcoms and sports programming. The rise of ad-avoidance is a way of putting a higher price on the privilege of doing what ads do—make brands more valuable and convince us to spend money. Just as we don’t let every salesman into our home, there’re no reason to let every advertisement into our life.</quote>
Simon P. Anderson, Joshua S. Gans; TiVoed: The Effects of Ad-Avoidance Technologies on Broadcaster Behaviour; available at SSRN; 2008-11-05; 39 pages.
Abstract: The business model of commercial (free-to-air) television relies on advertisers to pay for programming. Viewers ‘inadvertently’ watch advertisements that are bundled with programming. Advertisers have no reason to pay to have their ads embedded if the viewers succeed in unbundling the advertisements from the entertainment content (advertising bypass). TiVo (Digital Video Recorder) machines, remote controls, and pop-up ad blockers are all examples of ad-avoidance technologies whose deployment detracts from the willingness to pay of advertisers for audience since a smaller audience is actually exposed to the ads. However, viewer purchases of devices to avoid ads may cause a disproportionate share of the ad nuisance to fall on the remaining audience. As these are views less adverse to ads, this causes broadcasters to increase advertising levels. This result is in line with observed facts. The bypass option may cause total welfare to fall. We demonstrate that higher penetration of such technologies may cause program content to be of lower quality as well as to appeal to a broader range of viewers (rather than niches). In addition, we cast doubt on the profitability of using subscriptions to counter the impact of ad-avoidance.
Torben Stühmeier, Tobias Wenzel; Getting beer during commercials: adverse effects of ad-avoidance; DICE Discussion Paper Number 2; Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE); Leibniz Information Centre for Economics; ISBN 978-3-86304-001-7; 2010; 30 pages.
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of ad-avoidance behavior in media markets. We consider a situation where viewers can avoid advertisement messages. As the media market is a two-sided market, increased ad-avoidance reduces advertisers’ value of placing an ad. We contrast two financing regimes, free-to-air and pay-TV. We find that a higher viewer responsiveness to advertising decreases revenues and entry in the free-to-air regime. In contrast, in the pay-TV regime, lower income from advertisements is compensated by higher subscription income leaving revenues and the number of channels unaffected for a fixed total viewership.
Jeff Boeheme (Kantar Media), Mitzi Lorentzen (Millward Brown); How advertisers can minimise Ad Avoidance; Session entitled Key Issue Forum – Improving Creative Impact: “Measuring Acceptance and Avoidance of TV Advertising to Maximize ROI”; performed at Audience Measurement 6.0: Measuring Complexity (ARF 6.0); 2011-06-13; landing. Jeff Boehme is Chief Reearch Officer, Kantar Media Audiences, North America; is based in New York City.
Mitzi Lorentzen is Vice President, Client Solutions, Millward Brown; is based in Lisle, IL, USA.
Newton N. Minow; Vast Wasteland Speech; a speech; Delivered at the meeting of the National Association of Broadcasters, Washington, DC; 1961-05-09; landing.
<quote>But when television is bad, nothing is worse. I invite each of you to sit down in front of your television set when your station goes on the air and stay there, for a day, without a book, without a magazine, without a newspaper, without a profit and loss sheet or a rating book to distract you. Keep your eyes glued to that set until the station signs off. I can assure you that what you will observe is a vast wasteland.
You will see a procession of game shows, formula comedies about totally unbelievable families, blood and thunder, mayhem, violence, sadism, murder, western bad men, western good men, private eyes, gangsters, more violence, and cartoons. And endlessly, commercials — many screaming, cajoling, and offending. And most of all, boredom. True, you’ll see a few things you will enjoy. But they will be very, very few. And if you think I exaggerate, I only ask you to try it.</quote>