PDV-91, Week 3, Journal entry from the future, 2028

[artlessly], sans edits; in the thematic style of Tim Maughan’s Zero Hours [cited below]


It’s 2028-10-10, A Tuesday, the day after Monday.

My house is seventy five years old at this point. We’ve got some new additions, some internal rebuilding, but the main part of the house is still as it ever was from the remodel back in the oughties. That means that some things “work” and some parts are warped and odd-shaped. The robots haven’t really materialized to deal with this sort of thing. New-built townhomes have that sort of thing. But they have no space, no land and outrageous HOA fees. Suburbia is as it ever was. Gardening is still gardening; the water still comes in pipes. Cooking is still cooking; the fuel still comes in pipes. Garbage has to be trucked way far south to a landfill beyond Gilroy, so lots of care happens to reduce that. The good food still comes in stores. But if you’re looking for bulk food, canned food, processed food, you can just order that. You still can’t try that with the fruits & vegetables: they ship you the seconds still in a 4-hr window (nothing ever changes does it?). Shopping pretty much works as: if you know what you want, you order it and they deliver it. If it can’t be specified or it has subtle acceptance criteria, then you have to go get it.

It’s Tuesday. I watched MNF last night. They still have Monday Night Football, but it isn’t tied to a network, it’s produced and broadcast directly from the NFL studios, delivered OTT to the 90″ display in the living room. The NFL found a way to make the concussion problem reduce to a dull roar, somewhat similar to how hockey dealt with goalies getting their faces cut up by the puck before they were required to wear face masks. The games are in an a la carte format which is great, but there are no more DVRs. “They” finally cracked down hard on commercial skipping (no more TiVo, no more +15 second skip-forward easter egg). It’s difficult to watch in real time. The screens are bigger, lighter and better nowadays, but the content is crypto-sealed on every wire and at rest. You can’t build your own either, not really. Folks who do that don’t for long. They wind up on a list. HDCP finally locked down everything. You can “video on demand” but it’s really more of a “video upon supplication” not so much watching something you manage from your library. Governments are glacially slow to respond to this sort of thing, but this is one thing they do care deeply about: media copy protection.

Voice commanding is feasible for most interfaces, everything has microphones in it. The cars had it since 2014; always on OnStar they called it. The city streets got FTTH and also ubiquitous microphones in the fiber during the same trenching operation. Depending upon the part of the city, from in the early 2020s onward. Stanford campus had theirs city-scale microphones installed 2017-04; it worked well enough they installed it everywhere. It was like the Eruv debate, but less contentious. Every conversation, everywhere is recorded, indexed and available to someone.

Cameras in everything, except in the cameras. Positioning and naming things isn’t a problem any more. Things got better once the large displays became contactable from the local area. One gets so tired of squinting at a 4″ screen.
And recorded in the national-scale DVR; always and forever. Every stream, every image, indexed and available to someone.

The kids are long gone and into their graduate school times. We see them a few times a year. The older generation of the family has been gone for a while now, we’re the oldsters. It’s been clear the generations are turning for a decade now. Been having the same conversation with friends & colleagues with regularity: what happened to mom, what happened to dad; the kids launched, or didn’t, or (ahem) still haven’t.

I’m still working, and it’s been to be fun for the past decade. More of a “because I can” than “because I must.” We had this joke back in the day which ran:

Q: “what do you do”?
A: “nobody knows”

It was at once flippant, elitist and totally accurate. They tell the kids in B-school “if it can be measured, it can be managed,” and they can pretty much measure anything these days. Sensors and recordation in everything. The kid and the new hires have a harder time with it, until they figure out how to compartementalize.

We would be presumptively retired at this age, but the SSI folk keep moving the standard retirement age up so now “seventy five is the new sixty five.” They never reduced stated benefits or raised taxes. Just that one knob. Fun stuff.

Taxes are about the same except the governments got around to “going digital” on that part of the executive branch. Every transaction is transparent with AML and KYC laws being enforced unto minutia. They don’t compute your tax and send you the bill, they take it at the appointed time or withhold it prior to you receiving it. It’s convenient, but doesn’t leave a lot of room for creativity. Those who owned real estate and were creatively depreciating their assets against their tax liabilities to pay no tax were really unhappy; and still are. Big corporations still use transfer pricing for this sort of thing.

People still drive too many cars for the size of the roads, the government still doesn’t maintain the roads enough. I have an electric car now. I will have replaced it. Still have the Avalanche for long trips and camping though. The Suburban base model still exists but it has various power train options: diesel, gas, voltec, pure electric.

What’s happened in the decade is not a Great Stagnation, but a focus on smoothening out the little things. There are so many things that no longer need to happen: paying bills, paying taxes (sure, you still pay, death & taxes, right? but the reconciliation is enforced automatically). There is less standing in line waiting for someone at minimum-wage to validate that you aren’t stealing. There are no more teenage jobs, or Gen-Z starter jobs, but also no more waiting. Except in New Jersey. You still have to have someone pump your gas for you. It’s a graft thing. Come to think of it there’s lots of other little ways that the graft occurs. But it’s spread out and done on a time scale and across spaces where the Taylorists can’t comprehend or measure it.

I once asked someone, an éminence grise in his field, what he thought of the news of the day in-trade and in general. His response was that he no longer considers the news. He’s just as likely to hear that someone he knew has died or fallen somehow, so he no longer considers broadly across the events of the day. He focuses his time and effort on fewer things.

Provocations

Please free-write (no editing or polishing required) a short journal entry for yourself, that begins: “It’s October 10, 2026….” Think about the age of yourself (remember, you’re 10 years older!), and your loved ones, in 2026 as you write this, and what may have changed by then. If you have no idea what to write about, think about something you’re excited to do or looking forward to in the next month — and then write about what it might be like to try to do that thing in the year 2026.

  • What are you excited about today?
  • What is your biggest worry?
  • Who are you seeing?
  • What are you doing for work?
  • What are you doing for pleasure?
  • What’s happening at home?
  • Will you be able to?
  • What would be different about it?
  • What would make it impossible to do that thing?
  • What would you do instead that will fulfill the same drive or desire?

The Essence of Scenarios: Learning From the Shell Experience | Wilkinson, Kupers

Angel Wilkinson, Roland Kupers; The Essence of Scenarios: Learning From the Shell Experience; Amsterdam University Press; 2014-02-18; 185 pages; Amazon:9089645942; kindle: $36, paper: $30+SHT.

Mentions

  • History and context is given.
  • Who
  • The Scenarios are cataloged: their names, dates, sketch-summaries.
Nowadays
  • Everyone has scenarios.
  • Everyone is a futurist.
  • Can’t tell the charlatans from the poets from the punters.
  • One must Hack the Spew consider On Bullshit, of Harry Frankfurt
Arm Thyself

With automated scenarios filtering grinding against automated generation of scenarios.
Consider

  • Reflective Control Theory, separately filled.
  • Weaponization of Information, separately filled.
  • Firehose of Falsehood, separately filled.

Essence

The Outline of Chapter 3, The Essence of the Shell Art

  1. Improving intuition
  2. Plausible, not probable
  3. Striking the balance between relevant and challenging
  4. Pragmatic, not ideological
  5. Realizing the role of the future in the present
  6. Focused and targeted
  7. Engaging the client in the process
  8. Memorable, yet disposable
  9. Storytelling – the heart of strategic conversation
  10. The necessity of numbers
  11. The creation of a scenario team
  12. Serving as door-openers and adding value to external relationships
  13. Fostering a culture of openness and curiousity
  14. Managing disagreement as an asset
  15. Providing vlaue within a broader management system

Quote

And this is substantially what is occurring today.

Quoting verbatim from Chapter 4, Looking Ahead, pages 121-122

We conclude, in the spirit of Shell scenarios, by offering thumbnail summaries of two possible scenarios for the future of the global scenarios in Shell that might arise from the interplay of the [above changes, some points, not shown].

Business Lens

Shell has finally moved on from the consensus-driven culture of its past to a more focused delivery culture in which scenarios continue to play a strategic role. The availability of market-based futures studies and foresight services, including a proliferation of global foresight hubs and publically available scenarios, leads Shell to concentrate on using a mix of outsourced and homegrown scenarios to present real business dilemmas. Inputs on the social, political, technological, and economic changes are detected using two filters – strong trends and weak signals – and e-harvested from high quality foresight initiatives and scenario studies done elsewhere. Automated web-crawls and online Delphi surveys of an increasingly extensive network of worldwide experts are combined to enable the development of scenario building blocks. This practice allows the scenario team to glean the best insights from many and varied source and also helps to maintain the ‘outsider’ perspective that is so important to the traditional scenario function of engaging with remarkable people.

In this future, the investment in building global scenarios is shifted to undertaking regular reviews of the proliferation of available scenarios and foresight studies done elsewhere and coupling those more closely with bespoken, in-house models. This focus enables Shell to conduct more rigorous and comprehensive environmental scanning and to draw on ‘big data’ sets an existing futures reports and scenarios studies to more rapidly detect and analyze longer term system risk.

Shell scenarios continue to provide the basis of the firm’s global early warning and tracking systems, fed again in real-time by a range of global dashboards and monitoring systems established by others.

Reaching Out

Dramatic changes in the energy landscape, coupled with inertia by governments in addressing the integrated risks of connectivity, such as the resource security-climate stress nexus, unleashes an era of new social movements and bottom-up changes. As a result, Shell reinvents its scenarios practice in order to reach out and establish linkages with many communities on which it depends to produce and buy its products. A new ‘open source’ scenario practice emerges in which social media technologies combined with workshop-based dialogs explore the futures of energy in the context of planetary ceilings and social foundations.

Nested scenarios – sets of scenarios focused on different scales and dimensions – are developed to appreciate nexus issues. Shell harnesses social media technologies to navigate parallel paradigms in a multi-polar world and develop new insights into multi-scale resiliency.

‘Scenario-Plus’ methods are developed, combining visioning, scenarios, and design to inform transition pathways and innovation domains. In the process Shell gains a deeper understanding of new business opportunities stemming from interactions among energy, water, and food systems, as well as from the linkages resulting from changes in governance, technology, and consumer behaviors.

By continuing to attend to the role of intuition and interpretative frames, and by linking in-house modeling to open-source modeling contests, Shell scenarios provide the means of evergreen sense-making and market shaping by building rapid social capital in a world where relationships determine flexibility and new ideas are only as effective as the wider networks that will make change happen.

Stanford 2025, the purpose of the elite university, Java, JavaScript

Context

Stanford 2025, about.

Consideration

A nice counterpoint to Lowen’s history in Creating the Cold War University [below]. In reading the About page, understanding who funded this and why they might have done that, I’m struck by the lifelong learning aspect and the conceptual abandonment of the “alumni” concept. That’s probably the biggest suspension of disbelief that one must have. Second to that though is that there is an argument to be made about whether autodictatism (generally the Unschooling Movement) is appropriate and to which domains of expertise it applies.  Rather than argue that, I’ll spend the time here to highlight a generation-scale ongoing experiment and debate that has been occurring at Stanford Computer Science for around twenty years.

The story runs like this: “back in the day” (of the ’90s), the discipline of Computer Science had a certain rite of passage at Stanford, Cal and probably everywhere wherein after the first intro course in a teaching language like WATFIV or Pascal, the student was immediately expected to undertake the data structures, compiler or operating systems course with mastery of the <satire>One True Language</satire>: C of Unix.  Many did not make that transition, which probably was the point of arranging the course sequence that way. Same pattern in Chem, Physics, and the B-school sequences.

In the era in question here, pre-Bubble I, Prof. Eric Roberts at Stanford, chose to migrate the introductory course to Java for pedagogical and practical reasons. Not the least was that there was demand for Java-centric knowledge in industry. Among the debates of the day, was whether an elite school like Stanford was supposed to be in the business of teaching “job skills in support of the IT trades” or whether the time and money being spent at the institution was better used to teach general principles, provoke the critical thinking and develop of timeless deep understanding.  MIT taught intro via Scheme in this era. Whereas nowadays the industry, and especially Google via the legal reminding system [cited below], understands that Java is a licensed product offering of Oracle Corporation with structured community availability and user feedback machinery patterned after the “open source” cultures. The argument was made at the time that Java, with it’s lububrious OO frameworks, “no pointer” memory model, garbage collection and “cannot crash” runtime engine was both better for teaching and the right set-point for the career path into industry.

I sketch this now because here, twenty years later, the debate is substantially the same: is the purpose of The University and the 4-year degree system about inculcating a desire for incremental lifelong learning as a “sense of self improvement” program [c.f. Parker, below], is it in support of career skills production of knowledge workers in the global economy, or regionally is it the training venue to the trades (crudely, is Stanford no different than DeVry [c.f. the Thompson & Smiley  pieces below]) or is there more to the brand, the venue, the institution, the traditions of the big schools & liberal arts themselves and their Enlightenment extensions into areas of practice?

I’m reminded of this debate both from the pointer to the Stanford 2025 outreach site and also because of some recent signal-type events which caused some notice in-industry. Stanford’s transition from Java to JavaScript for 2017-Spring.

Disclosures
  • I and my cohort learned it “old school.”
  • Today, many IT shop hire for Java and JavaScript skills, which are tested for in the interviews: can the prospect drive the compiler, show the code produced.
  • The transition occurred because [we] “couldn’t hire” C++ people, who where elsewhere in more specialized areas, and because of the effects of the Greater Taylorism in the industry: [we] didn’t need to any more.  JavaScript is good enough for “light programming” and Java for the “heavy coding.”
Editorializing

One can follow the Taylorism on into the future tense as the Function-as-a-Service devops-as-business models.  The lifelong learning, pay-as-you-go tutorials, continuous degree programs and micro-certification are just another aspect of Taylorism.  Why pay for a generalist C++ skill set when one can buy Java skills to suit the purpose? Why buy Java skills when one can get MOOC-certified JavaScript? Why buy programming expertise at all when Excel light skills will suit the purpose?  Why buy Excel when Google Sheets is “free” and in your browser right now? There are answers to these conundrums, but organizations do develop differently depending upon how they view the questions and evolve in path dependence from the answers they choose.

Referenced

in archaeological order…

 

The Dataflow Model: A Practical Approach to Balancing Correctness, Latency, and Cost in Massive-Scale, Unbounded, Out-of-Order Data Processing | Akidau et al. (Google)

Tyler Akidau, Robert Bradshaw, Craig Chambers, Slava Chernyak, Rafael J. Fernandez-Moctezuma, Reuven Lax, Sam McVeety, Daniel Mills, ́ Frances Perry, Eric Schmidt, Sam Whittle; The Dataflow Model: A Practical Approach to Balancing Correctness, Latency, and Cost in Massive-Scale, Unbounded, Out-of-Order Data Processing; In Proceedings of the Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB), Volume 8, Number 12; 2015-08-31; 12 pages; Google, paywall

Abstract

Unbounded, unordered, global-scale datasets are increasingly common in day-to-day business (e.g. Web logs, mobile usage statistics, and sensor networks). At the same time, consumers of these datasets have evolved sophisticated requirements, such as event-time ordering and windowing by features of the data themselves, in addition to an insatiable hunger for faster answers. Meanwhile, practicality dictates that one can never fully optimize along all dimensions of correctness, latency, and cost for these types of input. As a result, data processing practitioners are left with the quandary of how to reconcile the tensions between these seemingly competing propositions, often resulting in disparate implementations and systems.

We propose that a fundamental shift of approach is necessary to deal with these evolved requirements in modern data processing. We as a field must stop trying to groom unbounded datasets into finite pools of information that eventually become complete, and instead live and breathe under the assumption that we will never know if or when we have seen all of our data, only that new data will arrive, old data may be retracted, and the only way to make this problem tractable is via principled abstractions that allow the practitioner the choice of appropriate tradeoffs along the axes of interest: correctness, latency, and cost.

In this paper, we present one such approach, the Dataflow Mode, along with a detailed examination of the semantics it enables, an overview of the core principles that guided its design, and a validation of the model itself via the real-world experiences that led to its development

References

  1. Daniel J. Abadi, Don Carney, Ugur Çetintemel, Mitch Cherniack, Christian Convey, Sangdon Lee, Michael Stonebraker, Nesime Tatbul, Stan Zdonik. Aurora: a new model and architecture for data stream management, In The VLDB Journal — The International Journal on Very Large Data Bases, v.12 n.2, p.120-139, 2003-08.[doi:10.1007/s00778-003-0095-z]
  2. Tyler Akidau, Alex Balikov, Kaya Bekiroğlu, Slava Chernyak, Josh Haberman, Reuven Lax, Sam McVeety, Daniel Mills, Paul Nordstrom, Sam Whittle, MillWheel: fault-tolerant stream processing at internet scale, In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.6 n.11, p.1033-1044, 2013-08.[doi:10.14778/2536222.2536229]
  3. Alexander Alexandrov, Rico Bergmann, Stephan Ewen, Johann-Christoph Freytag, Fabian Hueske, Arvid Heise, Odej Kao, Marcus Leich, Ulf Leser, Volker Markl, Felix Naumann, Mathias Peters, Astrid Rheinländer, Matthias J. Sax, Sebastian Schelter, Mareike Höger, Kostas Tzoumas, Daniel Warneke, The Stratosphere platform for big data analytics, The VLDB Journal — The International Journal on Very Large Data Bases, v.23 n.6, p.939-964, 2014-12.[doi:10.1007/s00778-014-0357-y]
  4. Apache. Apache Hadoop, 2012.
  5. Apache. Apache Storm, 2013.
  6. Apache. Apache Flink, 2014.
  7. Apache. Apache Samza, 2014.
  8. R. S. Barga et al. Consistent Streaming Through Time: A Vision for Event Stream Processing. In Proceedings of the Third Biennial Conference on Innovative Data Systems Research (CIDR), pages 363–374, 2007.
  9. Irina Botan, Roozbeh Derakhshan, Nihal Dindar, Laura Haas, Renée J. Miller, Nesime Tatbul, SECRET: a model for analysis of the execution semantics of stream processing systems, In In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.3 n.1-2, 2010-09.[doi:10.14778/1920841.1920874]
  10. Oscar Boykin, Sam Ritchie, Ian O’Connell, Jimmy Lin, Summingbird: a framework for integrating batch and online MapReduce computations, In In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.7 n.13, p.1441-1451, 2014-08.[doi:10.14778/2733004.2733016]
  11. Cask. , 2015.
  12. Craig Chambers, Ashish Raniwala, Frances Perry, Stephen Adams, Robert R. Henry, Robert Bradshaw, Nathan Weizenbaum, FlumeJava: easy, efficient data-parallel pipelines, In Proceedings of the 31st ACM SIGPLAN Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation, 2010-06-05 → 2010-06-10 (five days!!!), Toronto, Ontario, Canada. [doi:10.1145/1806596.1806638]
  13. B. Chandramouli et al. Trill: A High-Performance Incremental Query Processor for Diverse Analytics. In Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB), 2015.
  14. Sirish Chandrasekaran, Owen Cooper, Amol Deshpande, Michael J. Franklin, Joseph M. Hellerstein, Wei Hong, Sailesh Krishnamurthy, Samuel R. Madden, Fred Reiss, Mehul A. Shah, TelegraphCQ: continuous dataflow processing, In Proceedings of the 2003 ACM International Conference on Management of Data (SIGMOD), 2003-06-09 → 2003-06-12, San Diego, California. [doi:10.1145/872757.872857]
  15. Jianjun Chen, David J. DeWitt, Feng Tian, Yuan Wang, NiagaraCQ: a scalable continuous query system for Internet databases, In Proceedings of the 2000 ACM International Conference on Management of Data (SIGMOD), p.379-390, 2000-05-15 → 2000-05-18, Dallas, Texas, USA. [doi:10.1145/342009.335432]
  16. Jeffrey Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, MapReduce: simplified data processing on large clusters, In Proceedings of the 6th Conference (or Symposium?) on Operating Systems Design & Implementation (OSDI), p.10-10, 2004-12-06 → 2004-12-08, San Francisco, CA
  17. EsperTech. Esper, 2006.
  18. Alan F. Gates, Olga Natkovich, Shubham Chopra, Pradeep Kamath, Shravan M. Narayanamurthy, Christopher Olston, Benjamin Reed, Santhosh Srinivasan, Utkarsh Srivastava, Building a high-level dataflow system on top of Map-Reduce: the Pig experience, In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.2 n.2, 2009-08. [doi:10.14778/1687553.1687568]
  19. Google. Dataflow SDK, 2015.
  20. Google. Google Cloud Dataflow. 2015.
  21. Theodore Johnson, S. Muthukrishnan, Vladislav Shkapenyuk, Oliver Spatscheck, A heartbeat mechanism and its application in gigascope, In Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB), 2005-08-30 → 2005-09-02, Trondheim, Norway
  22. Jin Li, David Maier, Kristin Tufte, Vassilis Papadimos, Peter A. Tucker, Semantics and evaluation techniques for window aggregates in data streams, In Proceedings of the 2005 ACM International Conference on Management of Data (SIGMOD), 2005-06-14 → 2005-06-16, Baltimore, Maryland. [doi:10.1145/1066157.1066193]
  23. Jin Li, Kristin Tufte, Vladislav Shkapenyuk, Vassilis Papadimos, Theodore Johnson, David Maier, Out-of-order processing: a new architecture for high-performance stream systems, In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.1 n.1, 2008-08. [doi:10.14778/1453856.1453890]
  24. David Maier, Jin Li, Peter Tucker, Kristin Tufte, Vassilis Papadimos, Semantics of Data streams and operators, In Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Database Theory, 2005-01-05 → 2005-01-07, Edinburgh, UK. [doi:10.1007/978-3-540-30570-5_3]
  25. N. Marz. How to beat the CAP theorem, In His Blog. 2011.
  26. S. Murthy et al. Pulsar — Real-Time Analytics at Scale. Technical report, eBay, 2015.
  27. SQLStream, 2015.
  28. Utkarsh Srivastava, Jennifer Widom, Flexible time management in data stream systems, In Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Acm SIGMOD-SIGACT-SIGART Symposium on Principles of Database Systems (PODS), 2004-06-14 → 2004-06-16, Paris, France. [doi:10.1145/1055558.1055596]
  29. Ashish Thusoo, Joydeep Sen Sarma, Namit Jain, Zheng Shao, Prasad Chakka, Suresh Anthony, Hao Liu, Pete Wyckoff, Raghotham Murthy, Hive: a warehousing solution over a map-reduce framework, In Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, v.2 n.2, 2009-08. [doi:10.14778/1687553.1687609]
  30. Peter A. Tucker, David Maier, Tim Sheard, Leonidas Fegaras, Exploiting Punctuation Semantics in Continuous Data Streams, In IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, v.15 n.3, p.555-568, 2003-03. [doi:10.1109/TKDE.2003.1198390]
  31. James Whiteneck, Kristin Tufte, Amit Bhat, David Maier, Rafael J. Fernández-Moctezuma, Framing the question: detecting and filling spatial-temporal windows, In Proceedings of the ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on GeoStreaming, p.19-22, 2010-11-02 → 2010-11-02, San Jose, California. [doi:10.1145/1878500.1878506]
  32. F. Yang and others. Sonora: A Platform for Continuous Mobile-Cloud Computing. Technical Report MSR-TR-2012-34, Microsoft Research Asia.
  33. Matei Zaharia, Mosharaf Chowdhury, Tathagata Das, Ankur Dave, Justin Ma, Murphy McCauley, Michael J. Franklin, Scott Shenker, Ion Stoica, Resilient distributed datasets: a fault-tolerant abstraction for in-memory cluster computing, In Proceedings of the 9th USENIX Conference on Networked Systems Design and Implementation (NSDI), 2012-03-25 → 2012-03-27, San Jose, CA
  34. Matei Zaharia, Tathagata Das, Haoyuan Li, Timothy Hunter, Scott Shenker, Ion Stoica, Discretized streams: fault-tolerant streaming computation at scale, In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth ACM Symposium on Operating Systems Principles (SOSP), 2013-11-03 → 2013-11-06, Farminton, Pennsylvania. [doi:10.1145/2517349.2522737]

Previously filled.

Fedora 25, installation notes & experiences

Issues

  • IPv6 addresses come up with RFC7217 privacy mode enabled
    As such, the local radvd does not tag the machine with a “known” address.
    Remediation: turn off IPV6_ADDR_GEN_MODE=stable-privacy or set IPV6_ADDR_GEN_MODE=eui64 in the relevant /etc/sysconfig/network-scripts/enp1s0.

Reminder

Fedora Live Workstation…

  • … does not enable sshd. The firewall is configured to allow it, but the service is not enabled or started after the build.
  • … builds to graphical.target.  To back down to the non-graphical mode, systemctl set-default multi-user.target.  See the guidance in the (legacy) /etc/inittab commentary.
  • … uses firewalld to manage the iptables.  If you need to install a custom iptables setup, e.g. with xtables-addons xt_geoip rules then you need iptable-services.

Actualities

sudo dnf install -y xtables-addons

See the separate recipe for bringing down firewalld and bringing up the separable iptables services

systemctl get-default
sudo systemctl set-default multi-user.target
sudo systemctl enable sshd
sudo systemctl start sshd
nmcli reload
nmcli modify enp1s0 ipv5.addr-gen-mode eui64
nmcli con down enp1s0
nmcli con up enp1s0
$ cat /etc/sysconfig/network-scripts/ifcfg-enp1s0
HWADDR=00:EC:AC:CD:E6:12
TYPE=Ethernet
BOOTPROTO=dhcp
DEFROUTE=yes
IPV4_FAILURE_FATAL=no
IPV6INIT=yes
IPV6_AUTOCONF=yes
IPV6_DEFROUTE=yes
IPV6_FAILURE_FATAL=no
#IPV6_ADDR_GEN_MODE=stable-privacy
NAME=enp1s0
UUID=6c463f92-11d2-30ba-8273-d86bb3c58859
ONBOOT=yes
AUTOCONNECT_PRIORITY=-999
PEERDNS=yes
PEERROUTES=yes
IPV6_PEERDNS=yes
IPV6_PEERROUTES=yes

References

Standards

RFC 7217
A Method for Generating Semantically Opaque Interface Identifiers with IPv6 Stateless Address Autoconfiguration (SLAAC)
F. Gont (SI6 Networks & UTN-FRH); IETF; 2014-04.
Abstract: This document specifies a method for generating IPv6 Interface Identifiers to be used with IPv6 Stateless Address Autoconfiguration (SLAAC), such that an IPv6 address configured using this method is stable within each subnet, but the corresponding Interface Identifier changes when the host moves from one network to another. This method is meant to be an alternative to generating Interface Identifiers based on hardware addresses (e.g., IEEE LAN Media Access Control (MAC) addresses), such that the benefits of stable addresses can be achieved without sacrificing the security and privacy of users. The method specified in this document applies to all prefixes a host may be employing, including link-local, global, and unique-local prefixes (and their corresponding addresses).
RFC 4941
Privacy Extensions for Stateless Address Autoconfiguration in IPv6
Narten (IBM), Draves (Microsoft) Krishnan (Ericsson); IETF; 2007-09.
Abstract: Nodes use IPv6 stateless address autoconfiguration to generate addresses using a combination of locally available information and information advertised by routers. Addresses are formed by combining network prefixes with an interface identifier. On an interface that contains an embedded IEEE Identifier, the interface identifier is typically derived from it. On other interface types, the interface identifier is generated through other means, for example, via random number generation. This document describes an extension to IPv6 stateless address autoconfiguration for interfaces whose interface identifier is derived from an IEEE identifier. Use of the extension causes nodes to generate global scope addresses from interface identifiers that change over time, even in cases where the interface contains an embedded IEEE identifier. Changing the interface identifier (and the global scope addresses generated from it) over time makes it more difficult for eavesdroppers and other information collectors to identify when different addresses used in different transactions actually correspond to the same node.

Six Rules for Effective Forecasting | Paul Saffo, 2007

Pauil Saffo; Six Rules for Effective Forecasting; In Harvard Business Review (HBR); 2007-07/2007-08.
Paul Saffo (paul@saffo.com) is a forecaster based in Silicon Valley, in California.

Listicle
  1. Define a Cone of Uncertainty
  2. Look for the S Curve
  3. Embrace the Things That Don’t Fit
  4. Hold Strong Opinions Weakly
  5. Look Back Twice as Far as You Look Forward
  6. Know When Not to Make a Forecast

Concept

Mentions

  • Verbs
    • forecast
    • predict
    • identify
  • Adjectives
    • Preordained
    • Predestined
    • Uncertainty
  • Nouns
    • Signals
    • Possibilities
  • Work Products
    • Map of uncertainty
    • S-Curve of Adoption
  • <quote><snip/>, the forecaster’s task is to map uncertainty, for in a world where our actions in the present influence the future, uncertainty is opportunity.</quote>
  • Prediction is concerned with future certainty
  • Forecasting is concerned with the identification of (all) possibilities, not a limited set of illusory certainties.
  • A prediction does not have to have an internal logic,
    A forecast must have a logic to it.
  • The consumer of a forecast is not a trusting bystander
    The consumer of a forecast is a participant and a critic of the work product.
  • Forecasting identifies an S-curve pattern as it begins to emerge, well ahead of the inflection point.
  • Personas
    • forecasters
    • seers
    • prophets
  • Work Product
    • good forecasts
    • bad forecasts
  • Forecasts are meant to be scribbled on, disagreed with, and tossed out—and replaced with new, better ones.

Argot

  • VUCA → Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
    per Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
  • Decision space
  • Intuition … the “spidey sense,” “the $gender’s intuition”
  • Cone of uncertainty
  • Frequentist (belief systems)

Who

  • Roy Amara, futurist.
  • William Gibson, bookist, fiction.
  • Marshall McLuhan, theorist, prophet.
  • Erich Honecker, prime minister (what did they call him?), East German, 1989-01.

Quoted

  • <paraphrase> there is a tendency to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term. </paraphrase> Roy Amara to Paul Saffo circa 1977.
  • <quote>The future’s already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet<quote>, attributed to William Gibson.
  • <quote>we live in a world where the sole remaining superpower is too powerful to ignore but too weak to make a difference.</quote>, on deep background.

Aphorisms

  • <paraphrase>Son, never mistake a clear view for a short distance</paraphrase>, attributed on deep background to “a rancher.”
  • <paraphrase>history doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes</paraphrase>

The Rules

Rule 1: Define a Cone of Uncertainty

Method
  • Define the cone of uncertainty to support strategic judgment.
  • The geometric analogy
    • The closer to the center of the cone’s main axis they are, the more likely these events are to transpire.
    • A dotted line across the middle of the cone, the “expected normal” case
    • The edges are wild speculations
Other
  • factors—relationships among elements
  • distinctions in degree vs distinctions in kind;
    c.f. utility usage contra entertinment usage, e.g. of robots.
  • outliers, “wild cards”
    • trends or events that have low probability but high impact
      probabilities of occurrence under 10% or unquantifiable.
    • e.g. finding radio evidence of intelligent life somewhere else in the universe.
  • acknowledge sufficiently outlandish possibilities without losing your audience.
Humor

Given aliens show up…

  • One-third of the world’s population would probably worship the remote intelligences,
  • One-third would want to conquer them,
  • One third (the readers of this magazine article) would want to do some extraterrestrial market research and sell them something.
And…
  • human nature
    • is hardwired to abhor uncertainty.
    • is fascinated by change
  • Uncertainty, e.g. Y2K
  • Claim: <quote>The result of the Y2K nonevent was that many people subsequently rejected the possibility of other wild cards ever coming to pass. As a result, 9/11 was a much bigger surprise than it should have been.</quote>
  • consider the whole cone

Rule 2: Look for the S Curve

  • e.g. Moore’s Law
  • Viewpoint: Very large, broadly defined curves are composed of small, precisely defined and linked S curves.
  • Therefore, look for
    • larger S-curves containing
    • smaller S-curves subsumed
  • Claim: curve of Moore’s Law is still unfolding—it is still a “J”—with the top of the “S” nowhere in sight.
    • This is now known in 2017 to be false.
    • Moore’s Law and deep submicron design has hit scaling limits.
    • We have more cores but not faster cores.
  • Generalized Moore’s Law
    • There is an effect on density regardless of the material
    • Claim: Generalized Moore’s Law is still in force
  • Forecasting identifies an S-curve pattern as it begins to emerge, well ahead of the inflection point.
  • Forecasters can do worse than ordinary observers when it comes to anticipating inflection points (the question of timing)
    <ahem>as stated, they can also do better</ahem>
    <quote>Ordinary folks are simply surprised when an inflection point arrives seemingly out of nowhere, but innovators and would-be forecasters who glimpse the flat-line beginnings of the S curve often miscalculate the speed at which the inflection point will arrive.</quote>
  • Diffusion of innovation
    requires: (roughly) “a generation”
  • Example
    • Television → 20 years + WWII.
    • Silicon Valley → 20 years
    • Internet → 20 years (since invention)
  • the left-hand part of the S curve is much longer (slower) than most people imagine.
  • events will unfold slowly; no shift is in the wind.
  • the opportunities will be very different from those the muggle predictions
  • e.g. Personal Computer (PC) about entertainment, not work, not book-copied media, encyclopedias for education.

Rule 3: Embrace the Things That Don’t Fit

  • Become attuned to “things that don’t fit.” Intuition, spidey-sense. Needs systematization.
  • <quote>But by definition anything that is truly new won’t fit into a category that already exists.</quote>
  • Examine the failures.
  • Indicators come in clusters.
Exemplars
  • Online multi-player games with sales of virtual goods.
  • DARPA Grand Challenge circa 2004.
  • Roomba by iRobot.
Online Multiplayer Role-Playing (Shooter) Games

Sales of characters and in-game objects for EverQuest on eBay in the late 1990s.
Claim: such is now $1B/year run-rate business.

  • EverQuest
  • Habitat, an online environment developed by Lucasfilm Games in 1985.
  • Multiple User DimensionsDungeons (MUDs)
  • Second Life, by Linden Lab; twenty years after Habitat
  • Ultima
DARPA Grand Challenges, circa 2004

100-mile-plus race across the Mojave Desert.
for $1 million prize

  1. 2004-03 → none finished.
  2. 2005-10? → five finished
Roomba, iRobot
  • 2007 → seemed like an indicator.
  • 2017 → no longer “a thing” has come and gone.

Rule 4: Hold Strong Opinions Weakly

  • DO NOT: (over-)rely on one piece of seemingly strong information because it happens to reinforce the conclusion he or she has already reached.
  • <quote>In forecasting, as in navigation, lots of interlocking weak information is vastly more trustworthy than a point or two of strong information. </quote>
  • Paradigm shifts
  • Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, WHEN?
  • <quote>Good forecasting is the reverse: It is a process of strong opinions, weakly held.</quote>
  • <quote>Having strong opinions gives you the capacity to reach conclusions quickly, but holding them weakly allows you to discard them the moment you encounter conflicting evidence.</quote>
Parable

<vignette>This lesson was tragically underscored when nine U.S. destroyers ran aground on the shores of central California on the fog-shrouded evening of September 8, 1923.
The lost ships were part of DesRon 11, a 14-ship squadron steaming from San Francisco to San Diego. Misled largely by overreliance on the commander’s dead-reckoning navigation, the squadron undershot the turn into the Santa Barbara Channel and instead ended up on the rocks at Point Pedernales, several miles to the northwest. The squadron had navigated by dead reckoning for most of the trip, but as the ships approached the channel, the squadron’s commander obtained bearings from a radio direction station at Point Arguello. The bearing placed his ship, the Delphy, north of its dead reckoning position. Convinced that his dead reckoning was accurate, the commander reinterpreted the bearing data in a way that confirmed his erroneous position and ordered a sharp course change towards the rapidly approaching coast. Nine ships followed the disastrous course. Meanwhile, the deck officers on the Kennedy, the 11th boat in the formation, had concluded from their dead reckoning that they in fact were farther north and closer to shore than the position given by the Delphy. The skipper was skeptical, but the doubt the deck officers raised was sufficient for him to hedge his bets; an hour before the fateful turn he ordered a course change that placed his ship several hundred yards to the west of the ships in front of them, allowing the Kennedy and the three trailing destroyers to avert disaster. The essential difference between the two skippers’ responses was that the Delphy’s skipper ignored evidence that invalidated his dead-reckoning information and narrowed his cone of uncertainty at the very moment when the data was screaming out to broaden it. In contrast, the Kennedy’s skipper listened to the multiple sources of conflicting weak information and concluded that his ship’s position was much less certain than assumed. He hedged their bets and, therefore, saved the ship. </quote>

Rule 5: Look Back Twice as Far as You Look Forward

  • Marshall McLuhan, is quoted.
Parable

Something about “The New Economy”

  • Google
  • Yahoo
  • Google
  • Bubble I
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average
Exemplars
  • From Mergers&Acquisitions (M&A)
    • Jerry Levin, for instance, sold Time Warner to AOL
  • From warfare
    • Vietnam
    • Iraq I
    • Iraq II

Rule 6: Know When Not to Make a Forecast

  • There are vastly more elements that do not change than new things that emerge.
  • e.g. unchanging laws of economics.
  • Be skeptical.
  • <quote>At the end of the day, forecasting is nothing more (nor less) than the systematic and disciplined application of common sense.</quote>
  • <quote>The best way to make sense of what lies ahead is to forecast for yourself.</quote>

Previously filled.

Answer #2 to Homework Assignment Week 2, PDV-91: Collect a signal, prepare & present

Domain

In the domain of advertising technology (adtech) in an daround media merchandising, advertising marketplaces, media delivery and audience measurement. In and among the platforms: SSP, DSP, EX.

Amplification

As a story-line whereas in 2027 …

  • All data in and around “adtech” and “martech” is available on a blockchain system (side chain, state channel, etc.) somewhere.
  • Some of it is transparent, some of it is not, depending upon the commercial needs. This is implemented at the blockchain level. And yet, there is CALEA-type “LE Intercept” built in at all levels in the system, so nothing is really secret, just hidden.
  • Blockchain for persistent irrevocable
    • Consumer identity and profiles (data about a person)
      like TV Everywhere but more so.
    • Supply quality & availability (who publishes what; generalized Deal ID)
    • Demand availability (advertisers).
  • The “main chain” is used for slowly-changing dimensions: property records, incorporations, major collaboration deals
  • The side channels (state channels) are used to record individual trades.
Signals

In archaeological order…

Analysis Framework

Change

See Evolution of the Web (animated)

There is some generalized unhappiness with how things are in the adtech industry.  The changes are in and around the 3-5 year echo of the adtech investment boom of 2013-2016 (being that the funding rounds from that era are now petering out).  c.f. LUMA Partners LUMAscape presentations.

Also, whereas The Blockchain is magic pixie dust, there will be lots of experimentation to determinie if it can be reliably used for anything at all beyond money laundering, drug trading and speculation.

Drivrs
Trust
There are  legitimate use cases where a slow global ledger would be warranted.  These areas are already being addressed by industry trade groups with data sharing activities; e.g. Trustworthy Accountability Group (TAG).
Money
Always and ever thus.
Because
Because of techno-determinism, the Inevitibility concept; because it can be done with the technology at hand in 2017, it will be done..
Difficulties
  • The technology might tnot work; there is so much hype nowadays that few are listening to the prudence signals.
    • Blockchain is indicated only when a “general public ledger” between semi-adversarial commercial traders is in place.  It is not clear that adtech matches this use model.  There are significant use cases in media trading where secrecy is warranted.  The markets are in fact opaque for a commercial reason.
    • Blockchain does not scale.  Ad trading, as an industry, runs 1T (one trillion) trades per month nowadays, at a micropayment level “a ten thousanth of a cent”  The systems that are built to support this are SOX-compliant and run live money.  they are global and warehouse scale.
    • The online entertainment industry is always one software release away from obviating much of the commercial and technical architecture.  c.f.  Apple ad blocking (in Safari), Google ad blocking (in Chrome); Mozilla ad blocking (Firefox).
  • Data regulation construal and response (e.g. GDPR) is unknown.
  • Convergence of broadcast linear Television and OTT; the “go video” apps (go99, Fox Sports Go, etc.) would modify the marketplace structures back to the “Walled Gardens” scenario where free & open trading of consumer attention was not possible; consumers would be “captured” by the verticals media companies.

Background

Skills

  • Skill 4 (collect): references (above)/.
  • Skill 5 (forecast)
  • Skill 6 (positive Imagination)
  • Skill 7 (shadow Imagination)

Previously

Society as a social invention and you as a social inventor | Jim Dator

Jim Dator; Society as a social invention and you are aq social inventor; Futures Program, University of Hawaii; 1993; 8 pages ← socialinventor.

Outline

  1. Introduction
  2. Examples
  3. How to Become a Social Inventor
  4. Futurists as Architects
  5. Just Do It (Nikepermission to act)
  6. Some techniques for Creativity
  7. Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats

Mentions

  • Social construction
  • Social invention
  • Something about the vapidness of Brooke Shields.

Exemplars

  • The publicly-funded university
  • Community college
  • Mandatory secondary school
  • The nuclear fanily
  • Slavery, the institution.

Change

Envisioning social change.

  • Ending slavery.
  • Ending racial segregation.
  • Ending colonialism.
  • Ending war.
  • Ending violence.

Personalities

  • Awareness of problems.
  • Concern about of problems.
  • Memory for facts.
  • Fluency in ideation.
  • Flexibility
  • Originality
  • Self-discipline
  • Persistence
  • Adaptability
  • Intellectual playfulness
  • Humor
  • Nonconformity
  • Tolerance of ambiguity
  • Self-confidence
  • Skepticism
  • Intelligence

Not exactly OCEAN, but something else

Methods of Structured Creativity

  • Brainstorning
  • Factoring
  • Anti-causality
  • Perspective shifts, as “becoming”
  • Random combinations
  • Beyond dichotomous (iterated dichotomous or multi-variate)

Laws about the Future

  1. Old people are hidebound and anti-creative; do not listen to them.
  2. Break rules, experience what happens.
  3. Technology looks like magic.
As stated.
  1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
  2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
  3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Via: Arthur Clarke; “Laws about the future“; In Jimi Wales Wiki.
See the provenance for how the Three “Laws” came to be elaboated.

The Six Thinking Hats

Via Jimi Wales’ Wiki

Managing – Blue
What is the subject? what are we thinking about? what is the goal? Can look at the big picture.
Information – White
Considering purely what information is available, what are the facts?
Emotions – Red
Intuitive or instinctive gut reactions or statements of emotional feeling (but not any justification)
Discernment – Black
Logic applied to identifying reasons to be cautious and conservative. Practical, realistic.
Optimistic – Yellow
Logic applied to identifying benefits, seeking harmony. Sees the brighter, sunny side of situations.
Creativity – Green
statements of provocation and investigation, seeing where a thought goes. Thinks creatively, outside the box.

And there are allegorical combinations of the essential primes:

Initial Ideas
Blue, White, Green, Blue
Choosing between alternatives
Blue, White,(Green), Yellow, Black, Red, Blue
Identifying Solutions
Blue, White, Black, Green, Blue
Quick Feedback
Blue, Black, Green, Blue
Strategic Planning
Blue, Yellow, Black, White, Blue, Green, Blue
Process Improvement
Blue, White, White (Other peoples views), Yellow, Black, Green, Red, Blue
Solving Problems
Blue, White, Green, Red, Yellow, Black, Green, Blue
Performance Review
Blue, Red, White, Yellow, Black, Green Red, Blue

Quoted

  • Glenn Paige, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, University of Hawaii.
  • Edward de Bono, theory; a practice, an LLC
  • Arthur Clarke, scrivener.

Referenced

  • Social Alternatives, 1980-06; issues.
    <quote><snip/> is an independent, quarterly refereed journal which aims to promote public debate, commentary and dialogue about contemporary social, political, economic and environmental issues.</quote>
  • Arthur J. Cropley; More Ways Than One: Fostering Creativity in the Classroom; Frontiers in Psychotherapy Series; Praeger; 1992-01-01; 132 pages; Amazon:089391939X: Kindle: $30, paper: $20+SHT; c.f. page 19.
  • Jim Dator; Future Studies as Applied Knowledge; WHEN?; 10 pages; landing.
  • Arthur Clarke; “Laws about the future“; In Jimi Wales Wiki.
  • Edward De Bono
    • Lateral Thinking: Creativity Step by Step; Harper Colophon; reissue edition, 2015-02-24; PUBLISHER, 1st edition “the 1960s”; 300 pages; Amazon:0060903252: Kindle: $10, paper: $2+SHT.
    • Six Thinking Hats; Back Bay Books; 1999-08-19; 192 pages; Amazon:0316178314:  Kindle: maybe, paper: $14+SHT.
  • John A. Glover, Royce R. Ronning, Cecil R. Reynolds (editors); Handbook of Creativity; Plenum Press; 1989-08-31; 448 pages; Amazon:B01JXTJ70W: Kindle: no, paper: $8+SHT → $270+SHT; c.f. page 11.
    Also: lots of other volumes entitled Handbook of Creativity, all from big-brand august university publishing labels (Oxford, Cambridge, etc.); apparently theorists in the area of Creativitity Studies are not very, um, creative.  Thank you, Thank you very much. I will be here all week.

On “Psychological Methods for Special Purpose Computer System Design”

In the context of Jim Dator’s “Society as a social invention and you as a social inventor”, 1993, previously noted.

Outline
  1. Introduction
  2. Examples
  3. How to Become a Social Inventor
  4. Futurists as Architects
  5. Just Do It (Nikepermission to act)
  6. Some techniques for Creativity
  7. Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats

Whereas we are reminded that this site is deleted in ~15 days (when class ends). I’ll leave the notes off stage thus.

The Dator essay is about methods and scope for structuring the creative process. I’ll tell a short story from my past. There are many methods for doing this, some of which are applicable to small groups on the span of minutes or hours, some applicable to multi-stakeholder processes operating on the span of months or years.

Some twenty five years ago, as Glasnost was unfolding and the Soviet Union falling, a bunch of the Berkeley professors went off to the Soviet Union to make friends. To keep the story short: they came back with such, we had visitors and speeches by some folks with some very very fancy titles. They weren’t widely advertised because (um) you can’t do that at Berkeley. One of the most profound experiences of my life was to hear an individual with a title something like “chairman of national academy of sciences” (something like that) give an hour long talk, in English, with the primitive transparency slideware of the day, explaining how they had come to the conclusion at the blue-ribbon panel level that the Soviet Union had lost control of the silicon & computer technology that the West had mastered. His example was the Intel 32-bit x86 architecture. He was direct. He explained how they copied the 8086, he had some estimate for how long it took. He had how long it took them to copy the i286. It took them longer to copy the i386. For the i486, all they could do was copy the mask set from “acquired” copies. They weren’t able to figure out what it did enough to rebuild one. In that era the U.S. Navy had recovered open-ocean spy gear that head U.S. i486 chips in it. They didn’t attempt the Pentium or any generation beyond that. And then we were in real time.

Separately there was a contingent from East Germany, academics and such from Dresden who explained to us that they had a group that was tasked with copying the DEC VAX 11/780 and they were visiting to learn how to repeat the same process for the new RISC architectures that were from Berkeley. MIPS was in market at that point. We knew the VAX cloning activities had happened because enterprising reporters across the years had documented the cloak-and-dagger used to get such a refrigerator-shaped device with very heavy export control supervision across the border into the East. The answer for the Dresden crew was to go down to the ASUC store and buy Hennessey & Patterson’s book. To give a sense of where the technology was back at that point, the RISC designs were new and simple enough that prototypes could be accomplished by a department-level research effort on a multi-year grant. A 64-bit multiplier in the several nanosecond range was a term project in one of those near-research graduate courses; we didn’t fab them, but proved their correctness & speed estimates with transistor-level simulations.

After the initial festivities several visitors remained. One of them sat in my 4-person cubicle for around eighteen months. His English seemed good, and we talked a lot. He wanted to study “psychological methods for special computer system design.” I’m never sure if we totally communicated about what he wanted to learn. I still don’t know what that is or might be. I got the sense that he was the “idea guy” and that he got sent because he had wacky ideas, he could generate them or he could tolerate them, one of those. He was from some (internal passport only) defense city where they did weapons development. While we didn’t do military work in our group, there were folks in & around my cohort who did clearance-level work on summer jobs and part time, off stage. These visit wasn’t about making contact with those people. It was about making friends and ramping down the cold war.

To give a sense about how closed the society was, it was clear that he had a different view about government and society and allocation of resources. For example, he wanted to buy one of the Apple computer products to send back to his son via the diplomatic pouch. This was back when fanbois would croon “it’s soooooo intuitive,” and point out the one-button mouse; against Windows with IRQs and autoexec.bat settings. He wanted a Mac. He wanted to know how to apply to get one. Surely there was some window or office to which he needed to apply. The answer was: you go down to the ASUC store and you buy it with a credit card or cash. A standard Mac was a little over one month of his stipend we figured out from looking at his U.C. offer letter. For several years afterwards he would send me email at my personal address on July 4th, wishing me and the country happiness. We lost touch in the late 90s as Bubble I unfolded.

There probably is something there in “psychological methods for …” but it would be called something different, misdirective and and very abstract. For example, if one gets into studying the “false news” phenomenon one gets into “Reflective Control Theory” which seems at a facile level to be “advertising” or “public relations” but comes at the problem from military and strategic power relations perspective. An interesting viewpoint there is that the Soviets (Russians) are reported to feel that the U.S. is (was) a master at this wherein the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was mere puffery but caused them to massively redirect their resources towards answering it, which ultimately exhausted them. They are returning the favor nowadays by using U.S.-based social media to troll our society. Seems far-fetched, but there is a body of literature thereon as filled, and filled.

The puzzle, and here is the relationship to the Dator essay, is the “psychological methods for X” being a structured creative process towards an articulated planning-centric end goal. Many of the methods that Dator highlights were developed and campaigned contemporaneously with this era of the early ’90s, just going by first-publication dates. Dator highlights a creative’s (creative person’s) personality model, a group time-management device (De Bono Six Hats, compare with Roberts Rules of Order) and an idea amplification technique (the lateral thinking). With my visitor, we went over and over his concept trying to figure out what he meant. The sentence never varied “psychological methods …” I believe it wasn’t TRIZ (TIPS), which I expected he would be familiar with as it is a Russian invention. I was looking at champion-based technology strategy, and MITI-style organized markets (such was the fashion during the Clinton administration) and High Reliability Organization (HRO) theory. It was not any of those, definitely not. He was looking for something about working with & managing very large engineering teams on very large projects (think: a decade-long or generation-long weapons system build-out, the B-1 program, JSF F-22, THAAD or Trident; but we never used weapons as an example or such specifics). He spent his full year and petitioned to get another extension, but I don’t think we ever find a theory that aligned with what he was looking for. As such I’m always intrigued by these concepts of structured creativity towards large-scale program management. Many of the themes from the Peace Studies and Civil Rights activism organizational theories apply as they operate in multi-stakeholder environments with substantially voluntary participants in a Civil Society type of framework. There is a heavy sense of outreach, idea organization and structured foreclosing of debate. But “they rhyme” rather than being direct matches.

Perhaps these are related elsewhere in Dator’s writings. I haven’t gotten to “Advancing Futures” yet, maybe there. The Dator’s materials we’re working with appear to be courseware from his teaching days. If one runs down the references and ancillary reading there is a lot more there than meets the eye. It would be helpful if there was a collection & summarization of all of them.

Corporate Surveillance in Everyday Life | Cracked Labs


Corporate Surveillance in Everyday Life. How Companies Collect, Combine, Analyze, Trade, and Use Personal Data on BillionsWolfie Christl,; Cracked Labs, Vienna; 2017-06; 93 pages.

Teaser: <shrill>How thousands of companies monitor, analyze, and influence the lives of billions. Who are the main players in today’s digital tracking? What can they infer from our purchases, phone calls, web searches, and Facebook likes? How do online platforms, tech companies, and data brokers collect, trade, and make use of personal data?</shrill>

Table of Contents

  1. Background and Scope
  2. Introduction
  3. Relevant players within the business of personal data
    1. Businesses in all industries
    2. Media organizations and digital publishers
    3. Telecom companies and Internet Service Providers
    4. Devices and Internet of Things
    5. Financial services and insurance
    6. Public sector and key societal domains
    7. Future developments?
  4. The Risk Data Industry
    1. Rating people in finance, insurance and employment
    2. Credit scoring based on digital behavioral data
    3. Identity verification and fraud prevention
    4. Online identity and fraud scoring in real-time
    5. Investigating consumers based on digital records
  5. The Marketing Data Industry
    1. Sorting and ranking consumers for marketing
    2. The rise of programmatic advertising technology
    3. Connecting offline and online data
    4. Recording and managing behaviors in real-time
    5. Collecting identities and identity resolution
    6. Managing consumers with CRM, CIAM and MDM
  6. Examples of Consumer Data Broker Ecosystems
    1. Acxiom, its services, data providers, and partners
    2. Oracle as a consumer data platform
    3. Examples of data collected by Acxiom and Oracle
  7. Key Developments in Recent Years
    1. Networks of digital tracking and profiling
    2. Large-scale aggregation and linking of identifiers
    3. “Anonymous” recognition
    4. Analyzing, categorizing, rating and ranking people
    5. Real-time monitoring of behavioral data streams
    6. Mass personalization
    7. Testing and experimenting on people
    8. Mission creep – everyday life, risk assessment and marketing
  8. Conclusion
  9. Figures
  10. References

Mentions

Quoted

  • Omer Tene
  • Jules Polonetsky

Promotions

Yes.  A work this polished could be hid for long.

Summary

The web variant is summary material.

  1. Analyzing people
  2. Analyzing people in finance, insurance and healthcare
  3. Large-scale collection and use of consumer data
  4. Data brokers and the business of personal data
  5. Real-time monitoring of behaviors across everyday life
  6. Linking, matching and combining digital profiles
  7. Managing consumers and behaviors, personalization and testing
  8. Dragnet – everyday life, marketing data and risk analytics
  9. Mapping the commercial tracking and profiling landscape
  10. Towards a society of pervasive digital social control?

References

There are 601 footnotes, which are distinct from the references.
There are 102 of references

Previously filled.

Answer #1 to Homework Assignment Week 2, PDV-91: Collect a signal, prepare & present

Domain

In the domain of online entertainment, publishing, blogging, gaming,, movies, commerce and such as is now understood to be “siliicon valley technology,” “the web,” “the internet,” “the blogosphere,,” “the online cyberspace,” “the mobile world.”

Amplification

As a story line, whereas in 2027…

  • The net is not neutral and hasn’t been for more than half a decade.
  • Network speeds, service, features, affordances vary according to carrier & fees.  The network is “Vertical” and “Splintered.” It is not flat. It is not “open.”  Without the appropriate bundled package, some entertainment sites & commercial services are not available to the consumer.  e.g. Netflix, ESPN, Google, Medium, Amazon, Fox News, wordpress.com, news.ycombinator.com, PBS, The Comedy Channel, TheWhat, myblog.example.com, etc.
  • Each consumer must “login to the internet” from the browser to receive any web page at all.  This carries the force of law, which is enforced at low cost to Law Enforcement. (think: like music downloading but more so).  For residential consumers the internet is like a corporate “capture portal” – all traffic is logged, monitored & billed.  There is effectively an “internet driver license.”
  • The notional general purpose “office work”-capable laptop computer has ceased to exist, those are called “work stations” and are about as interesting as a Black & Decker table saw or a Cuisinart food processor: useful in certain contexts, but not a social enabler.  They are not cultural icons of pride and wonder. All consumer computing is on closed, curated & very polished equipment sold within one of two Great Cultures (think: iOS or Android).
  • Network connectivity is “free” or for a token flat-rate fee.
    But: media experiences are not free; they are metered and billed.  Reading linkbait or “thoughtful longread thinkpieces” carries a cost to compensate the artists.
    Think “toll free data,” “sponsored data,” “channel bundling,” “web site bundling” patterned after the organized markets of Cable TV.  Micro-payments with carrier-billed presentment is universal and enshrined in law.
  • There are no “non-billed” experiences on the network; there are no DIY websites
    and avoidance of these measures by any means carries criminal legal penalties (think like the DMCA).  And these prosecutions occur.
  • Regulation of “personal data” follows GDPR-type rules, but more so. As suhc, only a few very large, very capable media companies are willing to work with consumer data (any data “about” a consumer).  Nearly all data is “consumer data”; e.g. IP address, access times, etc.. and is governed by the regulations.
  • These network media companies have developed magical Artificial Intelligence such that the network knows who you are and what you are like.  The few large media companies left are able to attune the entertainment and content construction operations to maximize their effectiveness using psychographic techniques. The “effectiveness” concept is a revenue optimization metric that manifests in return to the media owners.
Signals

In archaeological order (newer material on top, older material below)…

Analysis Framework

Change

In 2017, the notional “internet” is fun and a pleasant read.  It somehow stands “apart” from other technologies: phones, photocopiers, cars, airplanes, and computers.  By 2027, the Internet will be sixty years old at this point and multiple generations (three generations per Strauss & Howe’s theory) will have transitioned with experience of it. It will become ambient and “media centric” rather than “technology centric.”

Drivers
Money
The big carriers and media companies need to be seen as “growth companies” with increasing revenues.  In 2017, some of them are not growing and have not been growing for more than a decade.  c.f. stock symbols T, VZ, S, TMUS on a 10-year timespan.
Safety
Whereas in 2017, The Internet of 1990s & 2000s has become unsafe, a concept of Law & Order will begin to prevail. ,More Law and more Order.
Because
Because it can be done with the technology at hand in 2017, it will be done. This is the technological determinism argument, the Inevitibility concept.
Difficulties

This scenario might evolve differently into the cone of uncertainty given a number of eventualities:  From probable to improbable.

  • GDPR effectively shuts down the internet surveillance economics as some activists have declared.  An industry is gone.
  • Continued and amplified trade tensions with China over labor, capital & technology issues.
  • Technological failure, the failure of imagination
    An Inability of north american technologists to continue to meet the pace of technology advancement in China; think “there isn’t any silicon in Silicon Valley and hasn’t been for two generations.  Rock’s Law contra Moore’s Law against the Fabless Semicondustor system [paper]; or Bunnie Huang’s estimates at talk on Shenzen at C3 or The Hardware Hacker; or Richard Danzig’s Surviving on a Diet of Poisoned Fruit.
  • Income inequality continues … and actually matters to the extent that economic life bends around it.  industries are nationalized, protests & riots for or against this or that, capital- and trade- controls are instituted, etc.  The U.S. Dollar ceases to be a “risk free asset.”
  • Demographic failure, inability to execute & continue the global cosmopolitain technopolis:
    • Japan becomes more grey than was as was c.f. demographic megatrends, [not cited.]
    • Brexit causes economic chaos in the EMEA zone [not cited].
    • e.g. Trumpism becomes a 4-term phenomenon following FDR’s The New Deal; c.f. WTF
  • The continued (infinite war) paradigm:
    • Cointinued proxy wars in all of Afghanistan, Pakhistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Israel, Turkey and unincorporated lands in & around.
    • A war with China over sea access in the South Pacific.
    • An accidental or purposeful nuclear weapon used on North Korea or the United Sates’ soil.
    • A real war with Russia?
  • The global warming thing:
    Ahem, and only because it was in the reading list.  Global warming is really real, and as-stated. We all die in a hot bouillabaise of melted polar seas, starving and clawing for any scrap of food, before 2027. per David Wallace-Wells’ scare-piece in the New York Magazine.
Skills
  • Skill 4 (collect): references (above)/.
  • Skill 5 (forecast)
  • Skill 6 (positive Imagination)
  • Skill 7 (shadow Imagination)

PDV-91 Week 2, Skills 4-7, Homework: Collect a signal, prepare & present

Answer #1

The Evolution of Network Neutrality

Answer #2

In preparation.

Assignment

<quote>

Skill #4: Collect a signal (with bonus challenges for Skills #5, 6, and 7)

 What’s a signal? In the words of IFTF’s Marina Gorbis, it’s an “everyday example of the future in the present.” It’s an idea, an example, a prototype, an innovation, a trend, that points one possible way forward. It’s a clue about how the future could be different.

Some futurists say a signal is like art — it’s hard to define, but you know it when you see it. So let’s share some signals here and see what sparks our imagination…

For this assignment, collect TWO signals of the future. Include a link to an article, video, podcast, Facebook page, or other website, and answer at least one of the “signals questions” for each signal.

Where to look:

Questions about signals: (please answer at least one of these questions, more if you’re inspired!)

  • What kind of change does this represent? From what to what?
  • What’s driving this change? What’s the “future force” behind it?
  • What could the world be like if this signal gets amplified? What if the trend continues? becomes common? Or even ubiquitous?
  • Is that a future you want?

Please post your signals here for everyone to see!

BONUS CHALLENGE: Take a look at a signal posted by someone else, and use your Positive AND Shadow Imagination. Post a reply to the signal with your answer to these two questions:

  • Positive Imagination (Skill #6): What’s one great thing that could happen if this signal gets amplified? What could go right in this future?
  • Shadow Imagination (Skill #7): What’s something you worry about happening if this signal gets amplified? What could go wrong in this future?

SUPER BONUS CHALLENGE: Okay, superstar futurists out there… if you really want to stretch your powers of imagination, combine two or more signals posted by yourself and other students and see if you can turn it into a forecast (Skill #5)! Tell a quick story (a few sentences is fine) about how these signals might combine to create a strange new world.

</quote>

How much swap space for Fedora?

The answer has evolved over time

Quoting, paraphrasing…

Circa Fedora 25

Recommended swap space
System RAM No hibernation Allowing for hibernation
less than 2 GB 2 times the amount of RAM 3 times the amount of RAM
2 GB – 8 GB Equal to the amount of RAM 2 times the amount of RAM
8 GB – 64 GB 0.5 times the amount of RAM 1.5 times the amount of RAM
more than 64 GB workload dependent hibernation not recommended

At the border between each range listed above (for example, a system with 2 GB, 8 GB, or 64 GB of system RAM), discretion can be exercised with regard to chosen swap space and hibernation support. If the system resources allow for it, increasing the swap space may lead to better performance.

Via Installation, GUI Manual Partitioning Recommendation, In Installation Guide, Fedora 25

Circa Fedora 16

M = Amount of RAM in GB, and
S = Amount of swap in GB, then

If M < 2
    S = M *2
Else
    S = M + 2
System RAM Recommended Amount of Swap Space
4GB of RAM or less a minimum of 2GB of swap space
4GB to 16GB of RAM a minimum of 4GB of swap space
16GB to 64GB of RAM minimum of 8GB of swap space
64GB to 256GB of RAM a minimum of 16GB of swap space
256GB to 512GB of RAM a minimum of 32GB of swap space

One can obtain better performance by distributing swap space over multiple storage devices, particularly on systems with fast drives, controllers, and interfaces.

Via Disk Partition Recommendation for x86, In Installation Guide, Fedora 16.

Circa Fedora 14

There is a rule for swap space that is some think as follows:

  • For machines up to 4 gigs of ram, it is 1.5 times the amount of ram.
  • For machines above, it is the larger of 6 gigs or the amount of ram in your system. stopping at 8 gigs.

Since you may want to also use hybernate or suspend, add 2 gigs to the above.

[There is] doubt that one would ever use even 8 gigs for swap.
16 gigs is extremely generous (waste of diskspace).
One can also use two swap files of 4 gigs each.

Via Swap Space, In Storage Administration Guide, Fedora 14.

On means & methods for predicting the timing of IPv6 adoption

Previously filled.

Amplification

I’m more interested in concepts and approaches rather than the answer itself. Some background on developing the answer to this particular question follows below.

My interest here is more around how to phrase these claims such that they are meaningful over the time scales that we’re working with. One of the difficulties in working with claims over long enough periods of time is that institutions, currencies and measurement apparatus can vary sufficiently or fail outright across those time scales. I’m concerned with approaches to the “and how shall we test that?” Election results: easy; Hollywood movie sales: a procedure exists; Simon-Ehrlich or Bjorn Lomborg type wagers: controversial, but possible; and so on. What is of interest in this particular case is not whether something will happen in a binary sense but how soon something that is known to be happening is going to reach a significant enough level to matter, for some relevant definition of “matters.”

My interest is in how one goes about framing these questions (claims) about the future in a meaningful way, one that will be meaningful in the transition into the future as action against the claims will not be continued if the previous calls to action are no longer relevant. Futurism being but memoir writing if it isn’t tied to planning and thus to action. In the IPv6 case, the timing is important from an online entertainment perspective as the investment in the new networking scheme is significant. From a consumer standpoint, customer premises equipment is rarely churned unless it is force-replaced by the internet service provider. These technologies take multiple decades to roll out and be adopted so they are well within the time-span that we consider in the course (-10 years < t < +10 years).

On using wagers to “know the future”

There have been and maybe still are interesting expreriments with prediction markets against diffusion of innovation questions. Spoiler: the market (game) failed when two fine folks figured out how to run an arbitrage scheme on it; there were no countervailing forces sufficient to counteract the scheme. There exist other surveys in academic paper form of intra-corporate opinion markets. Separately filled.

Behind these is the thesis that a market can “know” things (encode knowledge) that no individual participant can “know” (understand). The aphorism often used is “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” This folk wisdom is usually attributed to Benjamin Graham and then Warren Buffet.

References

On the evolving IPv6 transition

In this particular case, we have (the industry has) a sufficient answer for business purposes and elements of the industry have been acting upon the answer as suits their temperament for risk and prospection. Google: yes (as shown), Comcast: yes, AT&T: no, Verizon: yes. RFC 6598 of 2012-04 were developed to support ISPs who have as-built infrastructure that will not be making the transition. Parts of Yahoo’s merchant ad systems went live 2012 (I drove that); the rest is transitioning now. The Google chart is interesting in that it did not hit 5% until two years ago. Prior to that one could reasonably say from a business perspective that there was “no business need” to consider the technology.

Some of these dates give the concept of how long these things take:

1996
IPv6 was “in trials.”
2000
B2B-type production availability; e.g. Solaris.
2007
Microsoft shipped IPv6 default-enabled in Vista.
2011-01
IPv4 was considered to have been exhausted in North America
“the Internet is full, please dial in at a later time.”
References

There are other longer technology transitions still under way.

On the continuing 64-bit transition

There is a wonderful survey article from ACM Queue that surveys the transition to 64-bit two-score year transition to 64-bit technologies. One is beginning to see the industry transition wholly to 64-bit for server-class and office-work-class gear and 32-bit and below for so called “IoT” leaf-level devices. The key signal for the future here is Intel’s announcement last month repudiating substantially all of their consumer-focused IoT SBC product lines. The supporting staff is now gone; Intel won’t be in that line of business going forward. And they aren’t a supplier in low-power “mobile” consumer gear meaningfully either. It’s an interesting question that: in 2027, “Intel Inside” means … ???

References

That other cultural transition, that didn’t happen.

The previous examples are all very in-trade and deeply technical. A more culturally-relevant transition that is still unfolding and is likely to several-multiple more generations to complete is the transition to the metric system in the United States, outside of narrow application domains. We tried but the U.S. population still trades against gallons of gas, quarts of milk, auto tires in pounds-per-square-inch; 55 miles per hour saves lives and gas-gallons, and thermostats shall be set to 65 degrees or lower. We are proscribed against carrying more than 3 ounces of toothpaste into airplanes nowadays.

One could imagine that what can’t (won’t) be different in any future scenario is the U.S. popular or commercial measurement system.


Originally a discussion point for PDV-91.

Beyond Public Key Encryption | Matthew Green

Matthew Green; Beyond Public Key Encryption; In His Blog entitled A Few Thoughts on Cryptographic Engineering; 2017-07-02.
Matthew Green, professor, Johns Hopkins University.

tl;dr → overview & history of Identity Based Cryptography and allied arts.

Mentions

  • Eugen Belyakoff, an artist, The Noun Project (licensed artwork, specifically communicative graphics)
  • Voltage Security, now Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE)
  • IBE systems effectively “bake in” key escrow
  • Christopher Cocks discovered RSA circa five years before RSA did.
    ellisdocdiscovered the RSA cryptosystem
  • Boneh-Franklin Scheme, 2001
    Uses

    • elliptic curves
    • support efficient bilinear maps (pdf)
  • Attribute-Based Encryption (ABE)
    think: biometric & encryption; record-level & field-level database access encryption

    • Sahai & Waters
    • “threshold gate”.
    • fuzzy IBE, or not.
    • is that a threshold gate can be used to implement the boolean AND and OR gates
    • ciphertext policy
  • Functional Encryption iacr:2010/543
    Concept: embed arbitrary computer programs? in the attributes of ABE, iacr:2013/337, arXiv:1210.5287

Practice

Argot

  • Attribute-Based Encryption (ABE)
  • Diffie-Hellman Key Exchange (DHKE)
  • Functional Encryption (FE?, <aside>everything gets an acronym</aside>)
  • Identity Based Encryption (IBE); a.k.a. Identity-Based Cryptography
  • Identity-Based Encryption (IBE)
  • Identity-Based Signature (IBS)
  • Key Generation Authority.
  • Master Public Key (MPK)
  • Master Secret Key (MSK)
  • Pretty Good Privacy (PGP)
  • Public Key Encryption (PKE)
  • Public Key Infrastructure (PKI)
  • Shamir-Rivest-Adelman (RSA), a cryptosystem
The Roles
  • Alice
  • Bob
  • Eve
  • Mallory

Key Servers

At GitHub

Who

References

At IACR

At arXiv

At Semantic Scholar

Popularizations

In Jimi Wales’ Wiki

Previously filled.

Some hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures | Jim Dator

Jim Dator; Some hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures; On course materials, University of Hawaii; WHEN?; 2 pages ← somehints.

Mentions

  • not prediction
  • imagining
    the desired end state.
  • planning

Method

Identify factors

  1. Existing processes and systems
    moving in a helpful direction
    Action: maintain or amplify.
  2. Existing processes and systems
    blocking
    Action: overcome or marginalize.
  3. New processes and systems
    Action: develop

Construct a timeline

An appropriate interval
  • 20-50 years.
  • 30 years (is a happy medium)

Identify institutions & events

  1. Certainty
    e.g.

    • Astronomical; comets, eclipses
    • Social
      • 4-year cadence
        • elections
        • olympics
      • 2000 → Y2K
      • 1994 →Hong Kong
      • 1992 → Columbus (-bashing)
      • 1984 → Orwell
  2. Cycles
    e.g.

    • Kondratiev Long Waves
      will the Kondratiev Wave be rising or falling in at
    • Generational Cycles c.f. Strauss & Howe.
      What “generation” will be in power then?
  3. Technological developments
    1. Possibilities
      given current funding, trajectory, etc.
    2. Plausibilities
      given different funding, breakthrough surprises, etc.
    3. Unlikely
      because they are silly, e.g.

      1. The Singularity
      2. Becoming Infinite Immortal Spirit Beings of Light.
      3. Idle Licentiuous Joblessness within a Benevolent Universal Dole.
  4. Caused
    1. by the actors
    2. very few major
  5. Disallowed
    e.g.

    1. The Rapture, etc.
    2. The utopian science fiction scenarios.
    3. etc.

Why Imagine The Future | Elise Boulding

Elise Boulding; Why Imagine the Future; appeared at a workshop; In Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World; circa 1990; 2 pages ← whyimaginethefuture

Elise Boulding
  • 1920-07-06→2010-06-24.
  • Professor Emerita of Sociology, Dartmouth College,
  • retired to Boulder, CO
  • Areas: peace research, women’s, future studies.

Mentions

  • The imagined future always has been and always will be <quote>a clean, green world of abundance, joyfully shared by men and women. This kind of imaging is a special human gift, that no follies have been able to extinguish. And as long as we can imagine a better world with minds adequately equipped for the complexities of the 21st century, we will be able to work for it.</quote>
  • History repeatts itself
    The human race wil survive
    There is a way past destruction.
  • Fred Polak
    • Image for the Future, 1953
    • “totally other”
  • Unclear why the lead paragraph hangs the ideas off of a reference to someone else (someone else’s thought).
    Answer: she credits Polack for introducing her to Future Studies, see

Background

Via Elise M. Boulding, in Jimi Wales Wiki
  • 1920-07-06→2010-06-24.
  • Quaker
  • sociology
  • peace activism

Concepts

  • Peace as an everyday process
  • peacableness
  • Women’s roles
  • Family roles
  • Global civic culture

Via Fred Polak, in Jimi Wales Wiki

  • 1907-05-01→1985-09-17.
  • Netherlands
  • Image of the Future, the book(s)
  • An award, from the Council of Europe.

Referenced

  • Elise Boulding; Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World; Syracuse University Press; 1990-03-01; 180 pages; Amazon:0815624875 : Kindle: no, paper: $3+SHT.
  • Elise Boulding, Kenneth E. Boulding; The Future: Images and Processes; SAGE Publications; 1994-09-22; 242 pages; Amazon:0803957904: Kindle: no, paper: $20+SHT.
  • Fred L. Polak; Image of the Future; Elsevier; 1973-01; 331 pages; Amazon:0444410538: Kindle: no. paper: $500+SHT.
  • Fred L. Polak; The Image of the Future: Enlightening the Past, Orientating the Present, Forecasting the Future
    • Volume One: The Promise Land, Source of Living Culture; Oceana Publications; 1961-01-01; Amazon:B001COBING: no availability.  Cited as first coming available 1953 in Boulding’s essay.
    • Volume Two: not listed.

Visioning and Future Studies | Elise Boulding

Elise Boulding, Julian Portilla; Visioning and Future Studies; In Some Blog entitled Beyond Intractability, circa 2003. → visioning.
tl;dr → an audio interview, with transcript, 720 words.

Elise Boulding
  • 1920-07-06→2010-06-24
  • Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Dartmouth College
  • Former Secretary General of the International Peace Research Association

Mentions

  • Fred Polak, is referenced; and noted.
  • <quote>[Fred Polak's] thesis was that societies that have positive images of the future are empowered by their own images to act creatively in the present. Societies that have negative images will just wither away. Of course, there are many cases in between.</quote>, attributed to Elise Boulding, from the essay.
  • <quote>What exists is possible</quote>, attributed to Kenneth Boulding.
  • Interest in <quote>how people picture the possibilities in their society and in the world</quote>, attributed to Elise Boulding, from the essay.
  • Therefore, one must replace what is and has been possible with the notional fantastic future.

Concept

The 200-year present:

  • began 100 years ago,
  • ends 100 years from now.

Also generational theory has these same concepts.

The Imaging Workshops

Method
  1. Instruction
    • Hypothesize the subjects 30 years into the future.
    • Give the subjects help with how their imaginations worked
  2. Activity: imagine
    • Scope: a world in which [a salubrious goal] had already been achieved.
    • Perform
      • imagining,
      • sharing.
    • Achieve:
      The subjects have a shared imaginary vision of the fantastic future.
  3. Activity: construct
    The history (a history) of the time-line backward to the present.
  4. Activity: decide
    • The subjects enroll into committed action.
    • Testification
      • written
      • speoken
Validation
  • A student of Elise Boulding [Who?]
  • Some research.
  • Questionaires re-administered over time.
  • Subjects changed their minds, changed their thinking.

Also

<quote>What exists is possible</quote>, attributed to Kenneth Boulding

<quote>What it means is that any peaceful segment or any group that has dealt with and gotten through really difficult conflicts and done it successfully, like a family or a community or a country — if it happened, then it is possible. </quote>

Thus it is applicable to civil society and civil society trajectory. Avoids “history is written by winners” because there is no survivorship bias in civil society; all participants continue forward into the memorialized future.

The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future | Kevin Kelly


Kevin Kelly; The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future; Penguin Books, reprint; 2017-06-06; 338 pages; Amazon:0143110373: Kindle: $14, paper: $13+SHT.

tl;dr → A teleological megatrends framework; transformation unto The Beginning (The Singularity) themed around 12 gerunds. He hits all the notes, quickly. Gee Whiz! Storytelling from the origins of the Internet in the ’90s. Some of the notes are passe now here in 2017-H2 (e.g. Uber is no longer cool, RSS still exist but it is no longer “a thing”, Software-as-a-Service is acronymed as SaaS, not SaS, Narrative performed Swedish-style “reorganization” in 2016-H2 [they hold & perform all customer videos]).

Listicle

  1. Becoming
  2. Cognifying
  3. Flowing
  4. Screening
  5. Accessing
  6. Sharing
  7. Filtering
  8. Remixing
  9. Interacting
  10. Tracking
  11. Questioning
  12. Beginning

Mentions

  • The gerunds
    • present participles
    • continuous action
  • Moving away from nouns, towards verbs, page 6
    flows contra stocks [John Hagel?]
  • digital
    • copies
    • bookkeeping (tracking)
    • (re-)analysis
  • utopia, dystopia → protopia
  • ‘B
  • Artificial Intelligence (requires)
    1. Cheap Parallel Computing
    2. Big Data (really very big biggie data)
    3. Better Algorithms
  • DeepMind, Google
  • Watson, IBM
  • Baxter, MIT
  • Robots are for
    1. Jobs humans can do but Robots can do even better
    2. Jobs humans can’t do but Robots can
    3. Jobs we didn’t know we wanted done
    4. Jobs only human can do – at first
  • Robots are for “The Three Ds”
    • Dirty
    • Dreary
    • Dangerous
  • Computers→ The Internet is for copies.
    <quote>The flow of copies is inevitable</quote>, page 62.
  • Manufacturing is about making cheap copies
  • Generations of computing
    1. The Desktop
    2. The Web (of pages and links)
    3. Streams
  • The Generatives [pages 68-70]
    1. Immediacy
    2. Personalization
    3. Interpretation
    4. Authenticity
    5. Accessibility
    6. Emobodiment
    7. Patronage
    8. Discoverability
  • Fixities
    1. Fixity of the page
    2. Fixity of the edition
    3. Fixity of the object
    4. Fixity of completion
  • Fluidities
    1. Fluidity of the page
    2. Fluidity of the edition
    3. Fluidity of the container
    4. Fluidity of growth
  • Flowing
    The stages of flowing

    1. Fixed. Rare.
    2. Free. Ubiquitous
    3. Flowing. Sharing.
    4. Opening. Becoming.
  • People of the
    • People of the Book
    • People of the Screen
  • Google Glass
  • Google Translate
  • Amazon Kindle Unlimited
  • Software as a Service (SaaS)
  • Adobe Photoshop
  • servicized
  • prosumer
  • Real-Time On Demand.
  • Amazon Home Services
  • UberPool
  • Co-working spaces (rent-a-desk, in a coffee bar).
  • Decentralization
    • decentralized “money” → Bitcoin [Ethereum]
    • mesh networks→ FireChat
  • Platform Synergy
    marketplaces, multi-sided marketplaces
  • Clouds
    rented computers, someone else’s rented computer.

    • Google Drive
  • Creative Commons
  • The degrees of “socialism” in stages of sharing [due to Shirkey]
    1. Sharing
    2. Cooperation
    3. Collaboration
    4. Collectivism
  • Sharing requires
    • Filters
    • Gatekeepers
    • Editors
    • Curators
  • <quote>inside every working anarchy there is an old-boy network.</quote>, attributed to Mitch Kapor, page 151.
  • Filtering done by
    • gatekeepers
    • intermediaries
    • curators
    • brands
    • government
    • cultural environment [cultural forces]
    • friends
    • ourselves
  • Filter Bubble
  • <quote>In an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information onsumes. What information consumes is rather obvious:L it sonsumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention</quote>, attributed to Herbert Simon, 1971
    <quote>In a world of abundance, the only scarcity is human attention.</quote>
  • Attention
    • commodity attention
    • Attention cost runs $2-$3/hour for consumers across all media and across all recorded time <ahem>since 1990</ahem>
    • Naive econometrics done by Kelly 1995→2015.
  • Google AdSense
  • Something about decentralization in advertising:
    <quote>For instance, what if advertising followed the same trend of decentralization as other commercial sectors have? What if customers created, placed and paid for ads?</quote>, page 182.
    <ahem>These experiments have been run and we know the answer to them</quote>
  • Something about influencer marketing.
  • Remixing
  • SketchUp
  • “nondestructive editing”
    undo & redo
  • Virtual Reality
  • HoloLense, Microsoft
  • MagicLeap, (funded by) Google
  • “presence,” as in “tele presence”
  • Lego
  • Second Life
  • Project Sansa
  • Minecraft
  • Minority Report
    • Steven Spielberg
    • 2002
    • precrime, crime prediction
  • Google Nest
  • Apple Watch
  • Project Jaquard, (funded by) Google
  • The Squid, Northwestern University
    a shirt that measures posture.
  • The Sensory Substitution Vest
    • David Eagleman, neuroscience, Baylor  University
    • a shirt; vibration in lieu of sound.
  • Virtual Reality (VR)
    contra Augmented Reality (AR)

    • More Sesnses
    • More Intimacy
    • More Immersion
  • goggles
    the optical prostheses
  • game play, theory of game play
  • Quantified Self
  • Mathematica
  • personal analytics
  • personal baseline
  • Udo Wachter, 2004, a vibrating compas-in-belt
  • Lifestream
    • 1999
    • associative indexing, of media
    • Intellectual Property
      • David Gelertner
      • Eric Freeman
    • contra
      Apple Time Machine, a UX for the backup product.
  • Steve Mann
    • 1990s
    • MIT, now  University of Toronto
    • Cyborg camera
    • Quantimetric Self-Sensing, a branded term
  • Google Glass
  • Gordon Bell
    • Microsoft Research
    • 2000-2006, 1-minute photos
    • MyLifeBits
  • Narrative
    • Notice: Narrative is “transferring operations” to a new legal entity.
      • 2016-06 → “bankruptcy”
      • 2016-11 → “reorganization” under Swedish law.
    • You don’t own it, you just use it
      You don’t own your videos, you an play them until they cease operations.
    • Upload only, no download.
      Closed API, access via performative UX only.
  • Tracking done by
    • car movements
    • highway traffic
    • ride-share taxis
    • long-distance travel (air, train)
    • drones
    • postal mail
    • utilities
    • cell phone location,
      Call Data Record (CDR)
    • Civic cameras
    • Commercial spaces
      Private Spaces
    • Home automation, Smart Home
      records stored in someone else’s computers “in the cloud”
    • Home surveillance
    • Interactive devices
    • Loyalty cards
    • E-tailers
    • Internal Revenue Service  (IRS)
    • Credit cards
    • e-wallets
    • photo face recognition
    • web activities
    • social media
    • search, internet search
    • streaming
    • e-books
    • fitness trackers
  • Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
    • Siri, Apple
    • Now, Google
    • Cortana, Microsoft
    • Kinect, Microsoft
    • Television, Samsung
    • Television, Vizio
    • Echo, Amazon
  • Photo face recognition
    • Facebook
    • Google
  • Philip K. Dick, Minority Report
  • Ubiquitous tracking “is the dual of” Ubiquitous copying
  • Surveillance logisms & neologisms
    • Panopticon
    • Surveillance
    • Sousveillance
    • Co-veillance
  • Determinism & anthropomorphization
    Bits want to

    • move.
    • wabe linked to other bits.
    • recoked on  real time.
    • duplicated, replicated, copied.
    • be meta.
  • Bitcoin
  • Pretty Good Privacy (PGP)
  • The duality, the trade-off between
    • personalization
    • privacy
    • <quote>Vanity trumps privacy</quote>, page 262.
  • Co-veillance is a natural state [see quotes]
  • Anonymity
    • is bad in large doses; salubrious in tiny quantities,
    • shifts over time to pseudonymous,
    • counter with trust & transparency.
  • Quantity
    • has a quality all its own
    • “more is different”, attributed to J. Storrs  Hall
    • zillionics
      after “yotta-” is “zillion”
  • ,Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)
  • Of Medi
    aUnbundling, unpacking, verticalization, specialization

    • classifieds → Craigslist
    • stock quotes → Yahoo! (Finance)
    • gossip → BuzzFeed
    • restaurant reviews → Yelp
    • stories blogs (linkbait) → everyone
  • Wikipedia
    • founded as Nupedia
    • rollback
      easier to rollback troll input than to create troll input
  • Emergent phenomenon
  • The Long Tail
  • The Shallows [Shirkey?]
  • Flux, depth and length of attention span; c.f. long-span serialized dramas.
  • Search [questioniing]
    • social expectation to have looked it up
    • associative indexing of everything [of everything relevant & not IP-limited]
  • Albert Einstein
    attributed for aphorisms on “good questions”
  • The Beginning (The Singularity)
    • noosphere, sphere of thought
    • global mind, hive mind
    • always on
    • “soft singularity” contra “hard singularity”
  • and

Quotable

  • <quote>In our era, processes trump products.</quote> page 6.
  • <quote>Particular technological processes will inherently favor particular outcomes.</quote>, page 7.
  • <quote><snip/>we can get the most from the technologies when we “listen” to the direction the techologies lean, and bend our expectations, regulatoins, and products to these fundamental tendencies within that technology. We’ll find it easier to manage the complexities, optimize the benefits, and reduce the harm of particular technologies when we align our uses with their biased trajectory</quote>, page 8.
  • <quote>The flow of copies is inevitable</quote, page 62.
  • <quote>In a real sense, these uncopyable values are things that are “better than free”. Free is good, but these are better since you’ll pay for themn. I call these qualities “generatives.” A generative value is a quality or attribute that must be generated at the time of the transaction. generative thing cannot be copied, cloned, stored and warehoused. A generative cannot be faked or replicated. It is generated uniquely, for that particular exchange, in real time. Generative qualities add value to free copies and therefore are something that can be sold. There are eight generative that are “better than free.” </quote>, page 68, page 68-70.
  • <quote>For eons and eons, humans have lived in tribes adn clans where every act was open and visible and there were no secrets. Our minds evolved with constant co-monitoring. Evolutionarily speaking, coveillance is our natural state. I believe that, contrary to our modern suspicions, there won’t be a backlash against a circular world in which we constantly track each other because humans have lived like this for a million years, and – if truly equitable and symmetrical – it can feel comfortable</quote>, page 262.

Who

the pantheon…
  • Ted Nelson
  • Geoff Hinton
  • Stephen Hawking
  • Rodney Brooks, MIT
  • Marshall McLuhan
  • Nicholas Carr
  • Brewster Kahle
  • Bill Gates
  • Ward Cunningham
  • John Perry Barlow
  • Clay Shirkey
  • Alvin Toffler
  • Larry Keeley, expert, innovation.
  • Howard Rheingold
  • Mitch Kapoor
  • Joseph Pine
  • Herbert Simon
  • Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute.
  • Paul Romer
  • Jaron Lanier
  • Rosalind Picard, Media Lab, MIT
  • Rana el Kaliouby, Media Lab, MIT
  • Steven Spielberg
  • John Underkoffler, Media Lab, MIT
  • David Eagleman, neuroscience, Baylor  University
  • Jaron Lanier
  • Gary Wolf
  • Larry Smarr
  • Stephen Wolfram
  • Nicholas Felton
  • UdoWachter
  • David Gelertner
  • Eric Freeman
  • Steve Mann
  • Camille Hartsell, research librarian to Kevin Kelly’ LinkedIn Twotter.
  • Philip K. Dick
  • David Brin
  • J. Storrs  Hall, nanotechnology, popularizatoin, boosterism, books; Wikipedia.
  • Albert Einstein
  • Pablo Picasso
  • William Fifield
  • H.J. Wells
  • Teilhard de Chardin

Biography

Kevin Kelly is Senior Maverick at Wired magazine. He co-founded Wired in 1993, and served as its Executive Editor for its first seven years. He is also founding editor and co-publisher of the popular Cool Tools website, which has been reviewing tools daily since 2003. From 1984-1990 Kelly was publisher and editor of the Whole Earth Review, a journal of unorthodox technical news. He co-founded the ongoing Hackers’ Conference, and was involved with the launch of the WELL, a pioneering online service started in 1985.
Via Amazon

Other Works

  • New Rules for the New Economy,
    on decentralized emergent systems,
  • Out of Control,
    a graphic novel about robots and angels
  • The Silver Cord,
    an oversize catalog of the best of Cool Tools (a web site, wiki, blog, thingy),
  • What Technology Wants.
    a summary of his theory of technological determinism.

Referenced

  • Clay Shirkey, Here Comes Everybody, 2008.
  • Joseph Pine, Mass Customization, 1992.
  • David Brin, The Transparent Society, 1999.

Stanford PDV 91 — How to Think Like a Futurist: Improve Your Powers of Imagination, Invention, and Capacity for Change

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Syllabus

References

  • Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, ISBN:978-0143110378, paperback: 2017-06-06.
    Required.
  • Jane McGonigal, Reality is Broken, ISBN:978-0143120612,
    Recommended.
  • Rebecca Solnit, Hope in the Dark: Untold Histories, Wild Possibilities, ISBN 1608465764,
    Recommended.

First Assignment

<quote>A favorite saying of futurists is: “Get there early.” As futurists, we think about things long before they start to happen. Since our first class meeting is still in the future, this is the perfect opportunity for you to start getting there early.

Before our first class, please read the following two essays:

You’ll notice that our syllabus includes quotes throughout for inspiration and provocation. After you’ve read these two essays, please send me an email with the one sentence from each essay that stood out to you. (That is, please send Prof. McGonigal your favorite quote from each essay.) Prof. McGonigal will collect and share these on the course website. The email address is on The Internet.</quote>

Previously filled.