Can We Foresee the Future? Explaining and Predicting Cultural Change | SPSP (Varnum & Grossman)

Igor Grossmann, Michael E. W. Varnum in their roles as; editor of the blog of Society for Personality and Social Psychology) Can We Foresee the Future? Explaining and Predicting Cultural Change; In That Certain Blog; 2017-10-17.

tl;dr → Yes. Betteridge’s Law fails.
ahem → No. Betteridge’s Law holds. Surely no one can know the future, and anyone who says they can is either high or a fool, perhaps both. One can problematize quibble on the epistemology sense of the word “to know,” if you think you have time for that sort of thing.


Michael E. W. Varnum, Igor Grossmann. (2017). Cultural change: The how and the why. In Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617699971


The promotional build running up to the release of that certain sequel (2017) to the movie Blade Runner (1982) which is in turn based on a short novel by Philip K. Dick entitled Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (Doubleday 1968) [Answer: No (whereas Androids, after the Ice Cream Sandwich release, are functionally people too, being as they feel pain and love, as eloquently and forcefully testified by Rutger Hauer in a monologue performed so memorably on that dark & rainy night), again, Betteridge's Law holds, c.f. Jimi Wales' Wiki, Jimi Wales' Wiki].


A means & method for producing new predictions, which is better.

  • Uniqueness.
  • Rigorous
    • Theory-Driven [not Theory-Laden].
    • Testable [falsifiable]
  • Empirical.
    • Documentation
      Whereas sociology is either slow journalism [documentation] or activism [promotion] in service to personal ideals.
    • Repeatable
      Replicatability is not claimed. It’s a best practice for high fidelity journalism.

<quote>What is unique is a rigorous theory-driven attempt to not only document but to test explanations for patterns of societal change empirically </quote>

The enumerated [cultural] changes are features of the ecology [our ecologies].
<quote>This emerging work suggests <snide>asserts</snide> that among the most powerful contributors to cultural changes in areas like individualism, gender equality, and happiness are shifts in essential features of our ecologies.</quote>
This schema was shown in animal behavior; now it is replicated with people [our people].
<quote>The idea that variations in ecological dimensions and cues like scarcity or population density might be linked to behavioral adaptations has been widely explored in animal kingdom, and recently started to gain prominence as a way to explain variations in human behavior.</quote>

  • Ellis, Bianchi, Griskevicius, & Frankenhuis, 2017.
  • Sng, Neuberg, Varnum, & Kenrick, 2017.


  • It’s an “implications” paper:
    <quote>but also has fundamental implications for psychometric assumptions and replicability in psychological science.</quote>
  • <quote>Neither experts nor lay people do much better than chance
    as “proven” in: Tetlock, 2006; Tetlock & Gardner, 2016.</quote>
  • <quote>psychological phenomena unfold within a temporal context,</quote> → <fancier>events occur over spans of time; therefor psychological events occur over spans of time<fancier>,
    the insight is attributed to Kurt Lewin and Lev Vygotsky; unnamed “other theorists.”
  • ngrams, as mentioned in Google Books.
  • cross-lagged statistical models
  • cross-correlation functions
  • tests of Granger causality
  • SES (Socio-Economic Status; i.e. Marx-archetype class.1
  • The Misery Index, of [NAME] Okun.
  • ecological framework
  • big data
  • econometric tools
  • insights from machine learning
  • predictive science of cultural change.
  • emerging science of cultural change
  • predictive psychological science (Yarkoni & Westfall, 2017)


Individualism ↔ Collectivism
A focus on uniqueness and independence and emphasis of self-expression (or not.
Gender Equality
Obvious: equality between the [two] genders, which are named as: Male and Female (Female and Male).
Obvious: that buddhist thing; as evidenced in self-attestation surveys.
The WEIRD Population
The white American middle-class college students.

  • Western,
  • Educated,
  • Industrialized,
  • Rich,
  • Democratic.

References (at least):

  • Joseph Nenrich, Steven J. Heine, Ara Norenzayan; The Weirdest People in the World; In Some Journal, Surely; 2009-03-05; 58 pages (23,703 words).
    Cited herein: Henrich, Heine, & Norenzayan, 2010.
    Teaser: How representative are experimental findings from American university students? What do we really know about human psychology?


  • Isaac Asimov, boffo.
    Honorific: <quote>the seminal science fiction author — inventor of the fictional discipline of psycho-history.</quote>
  • Gerd Hofstede, documentarian.
  • Kurt Lewin, theorist.
  • Nostradamus; boffo.
    Opus: Quatrains, many years ago.
  • Lev Vygotsky, theorist.



  • individualism,
  • gender equality,
  • happiness.


  • model cultural change
    on a large scale.
  • using data,
    using cross-temporal data
  • using theory or theories,
    using theories derived from behavioral ecology.
  • “can usher in” [what?]
  • a new era in research,
    a new era in research social psychological and personality research.

unclear… if this means more better hard Sci-Fi or more sooth can be said:

  • more voluminous,
  • more accurate,
  • more relevant,
  • more pithy,
  • more cogent,
  • more better prognostications.


Method of Prognostication
  • ecological framework,
  • big data,
  • econometric tools.


far future: 2047 → 2117.


Obtain the Salubrious Result.

  • society,
  • the economy,
  • politics.

Events in the areas of…

  • scientists,
    specifically: behavioral scientists,
  • policy makers,
    specifically: [hired] regulators and [elected] politicians.
  • anyone,
    as such: the laity, the general public.
Charlatans, Experts
  • pundits,
  • economists,
  • intelligence analysts,
    generally, any and all analysts.
Drift, across time, same place
Results in social science are idiosyncratic and perishable. To wit:
<quote>There is no guarantee that the structure of psychological constructs (and their relationship to each other) remains consistent over time – a critical insight for anybody studying individual differences or the interaction of the social context and personality.</quote>
Drift, across time, different places
Results in social science are idiosyncratic to the place and perishable. To wit:
Second, in behavioral and management sciences that focus on cross-cultural comparisons, we need to ensure that our measurements are made contemporaneously.</quote>
Untestable, uninferrable
Documentation practices produces records as evidence; such cannot be used to as inputs to a reasoning process. To wit:
<quote><snip/> for those interested in the ways socio-cultural context impacts human minds, the new field of cultural change enables better tests of theories regarding the origin and evolution of cross-cultural variations than the cross-sectional approaches that are currently standard in the field. Time series data permit stronger inferences regarding the causes of cultural variation than is possible from datasets where putative causes and outcomes are measured only once and at the same time.</quote>
Implications, there are implications; this is important work.
<quote><snip/> have some implications for debates about replicability.
This is not to say that cultural change is likely the explanation for many or most failures to replicate previous findings, but when there is a large temporal remove between the original studies and replication attempts, it may be wise to consider this when interpreting any discrepancies or changes in effect sizes.

  • Greenfield, 2017; Varnum & Grossmann, 2017.
Drift, invalid population sampling
Whereas psychology “research” is done on The WEIRD Population, the results are incorrect.
<quote>Most samples we collect are “WEIRD,” consisting largely of white American middle-class college students who it turns out are not psychologically representative of humanity. But perhaps more importantly emerging insights from the cross-temporal study of psychological processes suggest <snide>assert<snide> that as psychologists, whether we are aware of it or not, we are studying a moving target.


  • Changes in baby naming practices in the US from the 1880’s to the 2010s and predictions for future trends through 2030.
    from Grossmann and Varnum (2015).
  • Voter turnout
  • Twenge & Campbell
  • …others…


Self-esteem, narcissism, and intelligence have increased in Western societies since 1980.
<quote>over the past several decades<quote>

  • Twenge & Campbell, 2001.
  • Twenge, Konrath, Foster, Campbell, & Bushman, 2008.
  • Flynn, 1984.
  • Trahan, Stuebing, Fletcher & Hiscock, 2014.
Social capital has declined since [sometime]
…as evidenced in e.g. involvement in civic organizations and voter turn-out.

  • Putnam, 1995.
  • Putnam, 2000.
Gender equality has risen, in “The West,” since 1950.
<quote>over the past 60-70 years.<quote>

  • Varnum & Grossmann, 2016.
Individualist attitudes, practices, and relational patterns have increased in 60+ countries
  • Grossmann & Varnum, 2015.
  • Santos, Varnum & Grossmann, 2017.
Changes in The Environmemt, generalized, cause changes in Behavior, generalized;
This occurs in individuals and composes into groups.
><quote>The idea that variations in ecological dimensions and cues like scarcity or population density might be linked to behavioral adaptations has been widely explored in animal kingdom, and recently started to gain prominence as a way to explain variations in human behavior.</quote>

  • Ellis, Bianchi, Griskevicius, & Frankenhuis, 2017.
  • Sng, Neuberg, Varnum, & Kenrick, 2017.
White-collar employment causes individualism.
White-collar employment correlates with individualism.
<quote><snip/>a shift toward greater affluence and white- (vs. blue) collar occupations was the most robust ecological predictor of levels of individualism over time, further shifts in levels of SES consistently preceded changes in levels of individualism in America – a finding that has since been extended and cross-validated by our team in a study examining the rise of individualism around the globe.</quote>

  • Grossmann & Varnum, 2015.
  • Santos, Varnum, & Grossmann, 2017.
Disease causes sexism.
The disease level cause the sexism level.
Infectious disease level decline causes the gender equaltiy increase.
<quote>It turned out that a decline in levels of infectious disease was the most robust factor predictor of rising gender equality, a finding we were able to replicate in the UK, and in both societies we found evidence that changes in pathogen levels preceded shifts in gender equality</quote>

  • Varnum & Grossmann, 2016.
Happiness has decreased in the United States since 1800.
<quote>Research examining affect in books and newspaper articles over a 200-year span shows a long-term decline in American happiness.</quote>

  • Iliev, Hoover, Dehghani, & Axelrod, 2016.
Misery causes inverse happiness
Whereas well-being is functionally the same as happiness, the Misery Index measures inverse happiness.
<quote>Levels of well-being in [these] studies appeared linked to Okun’s Misery Index, an economic indicator that combines unemployment and inflation rates, consistent with the idea that scarcity or abundance of resources matters for happiness.</quote>

  • Iliev et al., 2016.
Only the level of envy matters.
Whereas well-being is functionally the same as happiness,
and envy being a manifestation of differential happiness,
and happiness decreases as inequality increases;
thus absolute levels of happiness do not matter,
the differences between the happiness levels matters,
the level of envy matters.
<quote>Another study exploring the cause of changes in levels of well-being over time in the US found strong links to levels of economic inequality, suggesting <snide>asserting without proof</snide> that happiness decreases as inequality increases, suggesting<snide>asserting</snide> that not only absolute levels of resources but their distribution in an environment (what behavioral ecologists call “resource patchiness”) help to explain changes in well-being over time.</quote>

  • Oishi, Kesebir, & Diener, 2011.


  • Ellis, B. J., Bianchi, J., Griskevicius, V., & Frankenhuis, W. E. (2017). Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(4), 561–587. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693054
  • Flynn, J. R. (1987). Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: What IQ tests really measure. Psychological Bulletin, 101(2), 171 – 191. DOI:10.1037/0033-2909.101.2.171.
  • Greenfield, P. M. (2017). Cultural change over time: Why replicability should not be the gold standard in psychological science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(5), 762-771. DOI:10.1177/1745691617707314
  • Grossmann, I. & Varnum, M. E. W. (2015). Social structure, infectious diseases, disasters, secularism, and cultural change in America. Psychological Science, 26(3) 311-324. DOI:10.1177/0956797614563765
  • Henrich, J., Heine, S.J., & Norenzayan, A. (2010). The weirdest people in the world? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 33, 62–135. doi:10.1017/S0140525X0999152X
  • Hofstede, G., Hofstede, G. J., & Minkov, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Software of the mind (revised and expanded). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill I
  • liev, R., Hoover, J., Dehghani, M., & Axelrod, R. (2016). Linguistic positivity in historical texts reflects dynamic environmental and psychological factors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the U.S.A, 113(49), 7871-7879. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1612058113
  • Oishi, S., Kesebir, S., & Diener, E. (2011). Income inequality and happiness. Psychological science, 22(9), 1095-1100. DOI:10.1177/0956797611417262
  • Putnam, R. D. (1995). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. Journal of Democracy, 6(1), 65-78.
  • Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. In Culture and politics (pp. 223-234). Palgrave Macmillan US.
  • Santos, H. C., Varnum, M. E. W., Grossmann, I. (2017). Global increases in individualism. Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/0956797617700622
  • Sng, O., Neuberg, S. L., Varnum, M. E., & Kenrick, D. T. (2017). The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 112(5), 736 754. DOI:10.1037/pspi0000086
  • Tetlock, P. E. (2006). Expert Political Judgment. How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Broadway Books.
  • Trahan, L. H., Stuebing, K. K., Fletcher, J. M., & Hiscock, M. (2014). The Flynn effect: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 140(5), 1332 – 1360. DOI:10.1037/a0037173
  • Twenge, J. M., & Campbell, W. K. (2001). Age and birth cohort differences in self-esteem: A cross-temporal meta-analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(4), 321-344. DOI:10.1207/S15327957PSPR0504_3
  • Twenge, J. M., Konrath, S., Foster, J. D., Keith Campbell, W., & Bushman, B. J. (2008). Egos inflating over time: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of the Narcissistic Personality Inventory. Journal of Personality, 76(4), 875-902. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6494.2008.00507.x
  • Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2017). Cultural change: The how and the why. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617699971
  • Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2016). Pathogen prevalence is associated with cultural changes in gender equality. Nature Human Behaviour, 1(0006). doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0003
  • Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. A. (2017). Choosing prediction over explanation in psychology: lessons from machine learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693393

Previously filled.

Know Thy Futurist | Cathy O’Neil (Boston Review)

Know Thy Futurist; Cathy O’Neil; In Boston Review; 2017-09-25.

tl;dr → Cathy O’Neil, who is not bitter, envies the scholar-gentleman futurists as she aspires to their life of the mind, for which she writes.
and → futurists are scary people; they are serious people; they are never sour or defeated people; they are not silly people.
and → A “four box” model, two axes, four quadrants; named Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.
and → Facebook is bad.


The Latent Model, single-axis [the lede is buried-last]
  • Men ↔ Women
    (bad) ↔ (good)
The Declared Model, orthogonal-axes
  • Worried ↔ Exuberant
  • Dystopian ↔ Utopian


  • data scientists are creating machines
    data scientists are creating machines they do not fully understand.
  • data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers,
    data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers for reasons that are already very familiar to us
    These reasons are enumerated, by iconic euphemism-cum-epithet as:

    • class
    • race
    • age
    • disability status
    • quality of education
    • and other demographic measures (“other”).
  • [data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is a threat to the very concept of social mobility.
  • [data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is the end of the American dream.


Nicole Aschoff; The New Prophets of Capital; Verso; 2015-03-31; 150 pages; ASIN:1781688109: Kindle: $10, paper: $4+SHT; review (2015-03-31, O’Neil likes it).
Nicole Aschoff is an editor at Jacobin magazine; she produces content for The Guardian, The Nation, Al Jazeera, and Dissent.


  • A complaint, and she does have one, but presented with scattered thinking; and not a lot of clarity on the problem at hand or proposals towards their remediation.
  • Always easier to criticize than to create. Imagine what someone with such an expansive viewpoint onto The Forseeable could accomplish towards remediation of the now-problematized span if the energies were dedicated towards practice instead of petulant dissent on theory.
  • Oddly, for someone who is pitching a graphical model with Cartesian-styled orthogonal axes, a.k.a. the “four box model of B-school decision theory, she (or her editors acting in her name and the name of the venue), did not see fit to publish a diagram along with the prose.
  • Wherein a data scientist is a statistician who lives in San Francisco and performs their work-product on a Macintosh computer.


  • Singularity University
    motto: “Be Exponential.”
  • Cathy O’Neil self-identifies as a futurist.
    <quote>And I am myself a futurist. </quote>
  • Effective Altruism
    A theory of Peter Singer
  • Future of Humanity Institute
  • Something about Artificial Intelligence (AI) contra algorithms.
    <quote>[Yann LeCun] was careful to distinguish between AI and algorithms.</quote>
    The deciderata being [this is a very old definition, not due to LeCun]

    • An Artificial Intelligence (domain)
      is that which cannot (now) be done with computers.
    • An Algorithm (an algorithmic domain)
      is what can be done (nowadays) using computers.


  • <quote>A futurist is a person who spends a serious amount of time—either paid or unpaid—forming theories about society’s future.</quote>
  • <quote>[Because] at the heart of the futurism movement lies money, influence, political power, and access to the algorithms that increasingly rule our private, political, and professional lives.</quote>
  • Singularity, The Singularity (definition); is “The Rapture” from Biblical lore. <quote><snip/>a singularity is a moment where technology gets so much better, at such an exponentially increasing rate, that it achieves a fundamental and meaningful technological shift of existence, transcending its original purpose and even nature.</quote>
  • <quote>The kinds of technologies these two groups consider are nearly disjoint, and even where they do intersect, the futurists’ takes are diametrically opposed.</quote>
  • <quote>Futurists are ready to install hardware in their brains because, as young or middle-age white men, they have never been oppressed.</quote>
  • <quote>These futurists are ready and willing to install hardware in their brains because, as they are mostly young or middle-age white men, they have never been oppressed. </quote> (second utterance).
  • <sneer><quote>(If this sounds like a science fiction fantasy for sex-starved teenagers, don’t be surprised.</quote></sneer>
  • <quote>the concept of effectiveness is limited by the fact that suffering, like community good, is hard to quantify.</quote>
  • <quote>As a group these futurists are fundamentally sympathetic figures but woefully simplistic regarding current human problems.</quote>
  • <sneer><quote>[Technoutopianists] latch on to the latest idea—e.g., will Bitcoin solve the world’s problems?—and turn it into a paid speech.</quote></sneer>
  • <quote>Most futurists are talking about sci-fi fantasies.<quote>
  • “positive futures”
    <snide><quote>It is not entirely clear what that means, but I doubt it means free credit for everyone.</quote></snide>
  • <snide><quote>This is the slick and ingratiating sales force for the futurism movement.<quote></snide>
  • <quote>In the end [her] taxonomy (as amusing as [she] finds it) doesn’t really matter to the average person.</quote>


  • Nicole Aschoff, theorist.
  • Sergey Brin, boffo.
  • Nick Bostrom, booster..
  • Alida Draudt, practice, Capital One; lesbian (“who techs”)
  • Daniel Drezner, theorist.
  • Robert Heinlein, theorist.
  • Steve Jobs, prophet.
  • Ray Kurzweil, a theorist; ex-practitioner: inventor credit, author credit.
  • Yann LeCun, practitioner; [a, the?] director of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Facebook.
  • Gordon Moore, practitioner; co-founder credit, Intel Corp.
  • Elon Musk, boffo.
  • Larry Page, boffo.
  • Ayn Rand, theorist.
  • Peter Singer, theorist.
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky, expert, artificial intelligence.




The Suitcase Words
  • artificial intelligence,
    omnipotent artificial intelligence.
  • consciousness,
    machines gain consciousness,
  • transcend,
    transcend to another plane of existence.
  • clones
  • futurism
  • American dream (American Dream)
  • status quo (pedestrian Latin as status quo)
  • without,
    without unions, public education, and social safety nets.
  • outcomes
  • mock,
    mock them,
    mock them for their silly sounding and overtly religious predictions
  • Google,
  • IBM
  • Ford
  • Department of Defense
  • My hope is that by better understanding the motivations and backgrounds of the people involved—however unscientifically—we can better prepare ourselves for the
  • struggle,
    political struggle,
    upcoming political struggle
  • narrative,
    whose narrative,
    whose narrative of the future
  • oligarchs,
    tech oligarchs
  • flying cars
  • live forever
  • workers,
    gig economy workers
  • health care,
    affordable health care
  • singularity
    The Singularity
  • singularity myths
  • computer,
    the computer
  • self-aware,
    self-aware and intelligent
  • vindictive
  • believe,
    believe fervently,
    futurists believe fervently,
    some futurists believe fervently in a singularity.
  • worried
  • theorize
  • excited
  • scared
  • cautious
  • jubilant
  • Utopianists
  • Dystopianists
  • libertarians
  • seasteaders (movement)
  • Moore’s Law
  • transistor
  • Singularity University
  • hardware,
    install hardware,
    install hardware in their brains,
    Futurists are ready to install hardware in their brains because <snip/> they have never been oppressed.
    Futurists are ready to install hardware in their brains because, as young or middle-age white men, they have never been oppressed.
  • hobbyists,
    these futurists are hobbyists..
  • theories
  • wealth
  • top 0.1 percent.
  • wealthier,
    become even wealthier,
    They think of the future in large part as a way to invest their money and become even wealthier.
  • worked,
    once worked at
  • own,
    own Silicon Valley companies,
    still own Silicon Valley companies, venture capital firms, or hedge funds.
  • think,
    think of themselves,
    think of themselves as deeply clever,
    think of themselves as deeply clever—possibly even wise.
  • meritocracy
  • wine,
    expensive wine
  • drug,
    drug of choice
  • riches,
    enormous riches,
    enormous riches and very few worldly concerns
  • death and disease.
  • augmenting,
    augmenting intelligence,
    augmenting intelligence through robotic assistance
  • quality,
    better quality of life,
    better quality of life through medical breakthroughs
  • cryogenics
  • Sergey Brin
  • Larry Page
  • people,
    young people,
    blood of young people.
  • worst-case scenario
  • uploaded,
    uploaded software in the cloud.
  • graphics,
    virtual reality graphics,
    excellent virtual reality graphics,
    control the excellent virtual reality graphics,
    they can control the excellent virtual reality graphics
    a place where they can control the excellent virtual reality graphics.
  • ideas
  • teenagers,
    sex-starved teenagers
  • Robert Heinlein
  • Ayn Rand
  • blind spot,
    “I win” blind spot
  • racism
  • sexism
  • classism
  • politics
  • technology,
    solved by technology
  • government,
    the next government,
    program the next government.
  • proprietary
  • hoi polloi,
    the hoi polloi
  • the system,
    gaming the system.
  • existence,
    the nature of existence,
    the nature of existence in the super-rich bubble
  • something,
    something distinctly modern,
    something distinctly modern and computer-oriented
  • futurism,
    futurism of this flavor,
    futurism of this flavor is inherently elitist, genius-obsessed, and dismissive of larger society.
  • men,
    the men,
    the men—majority men
  • women
  • science fiction,
    dystopian science fiction,
    read dystopian science fiction,
    read dystopian science fiction in their youth,
    read dystopian science fiction in their youth and think about all the things that could go wrong once the machines become self-aware,
    read dystopian science fiction in their youth and think about all the things that could go wrong once the machines become self-aware, which has a small (but positive!) probability of happening.
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky
  • biases
  • philosophies,
    practical philosophies
  • Bayes’ Theorem
  • Roko’s basilisk
  • thought experiment
  • AI,
    an AI,
    a powerful AI,
    a superintelligent and powerful AI,
    a future superintelligent and powerful AI.
  • vindictive
  • hypothetical
  • Roko,
    Roko’s basilisk
  • AI,
    Friendly AI
  • singularity,
    a positive singularity
  • Effective Altruism,
    Effective Altruism movement
  • Peter Singer
  • Effective Altruists
  • suffering
  • responsibility,
    personal responsibility,
    personal responsibility for optimizing our money to improve the world.
  • parody
  • suffering
  • factions,
    factions believe
  • “existential risks”
  • events,
    futuristic events,
    unlikely futuristic events,
    unlikely futuristic events that are characterized by computations,
    unlikely futuristic events that are characterized by computations besieged by powers of ten,
    unlikely futuristic events that are characterized by computations besieged by powers of ten and could thus cause enormous suffering.
  • Nick Bostrom
  • Future of Humanity Institute
  • Elon Musk,
    shove Elon Musk,
    I will shove Elon Musk,
    I will shove Elon Musk into this Q2 group,
    I will shove Elon Musk into this Q2 group, even though he is not a perfect fit.
  • entrepreneur,
    an entrepreneur,
    a powerful entrepreneur,
    rich and powerful entrepreneur,
    an enormously rich and powerful entrepreneur,
    being an enormously rich and powerful entrepreneur, he probably belongs in the first group,
    being an enormously rich and powerful entrepreneur, he probably belongs in the first group, but he sometimes shows up at Effective Altruism events,
    being an enormously rich and powerful entrepreneur, he probably belongs in the first group, but he sometimes shows up at Effective Altruism events, and he has made noise recently about the computers getting mean,
    being an enormously rich and powerful entrepreneur, he probably belongs in the first group, but he sometimes shows up at Effective Altruism events, and he has made noise recently about the computers getting mean and launching us into World War III. The Guardian
  • cynics,
    The cynics,
    The cynics among us
  • Mars
  • technoutopianists.
  • Bitcoin
  • They are not super wealthy, but they aspire to be wealthier and more famous.
  • Follow the money here and you will find that they are what
  • “thought leaders,”
    single-idea merchants,
    single-idea merchants paid by oligarchs,
    single-idea merchants paid by oligarchs to feel special at TED or TED-like conferences.
  • The New Prophets of Capital
  • Nicole Aschoff
  • they,
    they will peddle,
    they will peddle whatever depoliticized fad captures the attention of the super rich at a given time.
  • Steve Jobs,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream on overdrive
  • Steve Jobs,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream on overdrive; They represent a disdain for the status quo,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream on overdrive; They represent a disdain for the status quo and the notion that we can solve it all,
    Steve Jobs as their patron saint, they represent the American dream on overdrive; They represent a disdain for the status quo and the notion that we can solve it all without the old, outdated trappings of unions, public education, and social safety nets.
  • time,
    no time,
    they have no time,
    they have no time for taking on difficult questions,
    they have no time for taking on difficult questions of structural inequality,
    they have no time for taking on difficult questions of structural inequality that do not fade away with the wave of a magical wand.
  • selling,
    selling something,
    most obviously selling something,
    they are the type of futurist that is most obviously selling something,
    Far from actually fixing problems, they are the type of futurist that is most obviously selling something,
    Far from actually fixing problems, they are the type of futurist that is most obviously selling something: a corporate vision, blind faith in the titans of industry, and the sense of well-deserved success.
  • Alida Draudt
  • apital One
  • Lesbian Who Tech, a conference
  • “positive futures”
  • free,
    free credit,
    free credit for everyone.
  • women,
    more women,
    more women still,
    more women still in this group,
    There are more women still in this group …
  • control,
    control the conversation,
    their aim is to control the conversation,
    their aim is to control the conversation and,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea in our collective imagination,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea in our collective imagination—even if that means a surveillance state,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, <snip/> to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea in our collective imagination—even if that means a surveillance state with good shopping,
    their aim is to control the conversation and, in repeating predictions about the future often enough, to cause that future, to become a fixed, normalized idea in our collective imagination—even if that means a surveillance state with good shopping.
  • people
  • singularities
  • worried
  • women
  • group,
    my group
  • women,
    majority women,
    majority women, gay men,
    majority women, gay men, and people of color.
  • underrepresented,
    underrepresented at the data science institutes
    underrepresented at the data science institutes popping up all over the country
    underrepresented at the data science institutes popping up all over the country because the commercial goals of such places are inconsistent with our inconvenient cries of concern.
  • concerned,
    I am concerned,
    And I am concerned,
    And I am concerned.  Because <reasons>enumerated</reasons>.
  • personality tests
  • filter out
  • applicants,
    job applicants,
    qualified job applicants
  • algorithms,
    risk algorithms
    crime risk algorithms,
    crime risk algorithms that convince judges,
    crime risk algorithms that convince judges to issue longer sentences.
  • algorithms,
    automated algorithms
  • processes,
    decision making processes,
    human decision making processes,
    important human decision making processes,
    most important human decision making processes,
    our most important human decision making processes,
    replacing our most important human decision making processes,
    already replacing our most important human decision making processes.
  • future,
    hypothetical future,
    hypothetical future of human suffering.
  • class
  • race
  • age
  • disability
  • eduation
  • measures,
    demographic measures,
    other demographic measures.
  • futurists
  • fantasies,
    sci-fi fantasies.
  • futurism,
    the heart of futurism,
    the heart of futurism lies money, influence, political power,
    the heart of futurism lies money, influence, political power, and access to the algorithms,
    the heart of futurism lies money, influence, political power, and access to the algorithms that increasingly rule our private, political, and professional lives.
  • Yann LeCun
  • Facebook
  • Go,
    the game Go,
    the study of the game Go
  • algorithm,
    a machine-learning algorithm
  • algorithm,
    the Facebook algorithm,
    the Facebook algorithm is already sufficiently powerful to manipulate our democracy.
  • the Q1 technologists
  • the Q3 technoutopianists
  • chess
  • Go
  • future,
    the future,
    picture of the future,
    pretty picture of the future,
    their pretty picture of the future,
    painting their pretty picture of the future.
  • success,
    what success looks like
  • clarity of purpose
  • model of success
  • world,
    hypothetical world,
    In a hypothetical world where…
    In a hypothetical world where people could live forever,
    In a hypothetical world where people could live forever—gobbling up resources indefinitely,
    In a hypothetical world where people could live forever—gobbling up resources indefinitely and exerting political influence,
    In a hypothetical world where people could live forever—gobbling up resources indefinitely and exerting political influence with outdated political frameworks,
    In a hypothetical world where people could live forever—gobbling up resources indefinitely and exerting political influence with outdated political frameworks—should we allow them to?
  • person,
    average person.
  • decision,
    automated decision.
  • Starbucks Scheduling System
  • algorithms,
    the algorithms,
    the algorithms that already charge people with low FICO scores more for insurance.
  • algorithms,
    the algorithms,
    the algorithms that already send black people to prison for longer.
  • algorithms,
    the algorithms,
    the algorithms that send more police to already over-policed neighborhoods.
  • algorithms,
    the algorithms,
    the algorithms with facial recognition cameras at every corner.
  • power,
    old fashioned power,
    look like old fashioned power,
    all of these look like old fashioned power,
    all of these look like old fashioned power to the person who is being judged.
  • power
  • influence
  • scenario,
    worst-case scenario
  • AI,
    vindictive AI,
    a vindictive AI
  • Sergey Brin
  • birthday,
    two-hundredth birthday.
  • scenario,
    worst-case scenario
  • capitalism,
  • elite,
    member of the elite,
    skeptical member of the elite,
    not a skeptical member of the elite in sight.

Previously filled.

On Constructed Culture and Technological Determinism as Self-Fulfillling Prophecies

Harro van Lente, Arie Rip; Expectations in Technological Developments: An Example of Prospective Structures to be Filled in by Agency; 28 pages; ;; landing, (a photocopy of a paper article), landing as Chapter 7; In Cornelis Disco, Barend vander Meulen, Getting New Technologies Together: Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order; Walter de Gruyter; 1998; An earlier version of this paper was prepared, submitted, presented at the XXIth (21st?) World Congress of Sociology, ISA, Bielefield, DE, 1994-07-18; separately filled.

Mads Borup, Nik Brown, Kornelia Konrad, Harro Van Lente; The Sociology of Expectations in Science and Technology; an editorial; In Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Volume 18, Numbers 3/4, 285 –298, July – September, 2006-07; 14 pages; DOI:10.1080/09537320600777002; paywall; copy; separately noted.

Leonardo Bursztyn, Georgy Egorov, Stefano Fiorin; From Extreme to Mainstream: How Social Norms Unravel; Working Paper No. 23415; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); 2017-05; paywall; separately noted.
tl;dr →something about needing “just the right” amount of correlational clustering to allow ideas to spread appropriately.

Rand Waltzman; The Weaponization of Information; CT-473; Rand Corporation; 2017-04-27; 10 pages; landing.
Teaser: The Need for Cognitive Security

Testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity on 2017-04-27; separately filled..

Christopher Paul, Miriam Matthews; The Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model; PE-108-OSD; Rand Corporation; 2016; 16 pages (landscape, like slideware); landing; separately noted.
Teaser: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It


How To Use a Futurist | Leading Thought (Liz Alexander)

How To Use a Futurist, promotional literature; Leading Thought; undated
25 ways futurists help organizations of all sizes and types discover, influence and experience preferred futures
Leading Thought is a training boutique.

tl;dr → demand generation for futurist work product. & interventions.  While anyone can do it, and it requires no real training, there is no actual barrier to entry in “the field”; yet there are branded methods. schemas and a lexicon to follow in the production of conforming output.


Liz Alexander, Ph.D., Consulting Futurist & Co-founder, Leading Thought.
Leading Thought is a training boutique.

Table of Contents

  1. INTRODUCTION: Why Hire a Futurist?
  3. What can a futurist do for you?
    Nine futurists representing Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Pakistan, U.K. and the United States outline how they help their clients achieve impact.
  5. How do futurists arrive at alternatives?
    “Big Time,” Implications Wheel®, and Three Horizons are just a few of the many tools and methodologies that futurists use.
  7. What else do we bring to the table?
    In many respects futurists are like gardeners. We cultivate insights and ideas by drawing on a broad range of expertise, skills and talents. But we begin by cultivating ourselves!
  8. Resources and Extras
  9. How other futurists are making an impact.
  10. Are You Ready to Claim YOUR Future?

Craig Badings, Liz Alexander; # THOUGHT LEADERSHIP tweet Book01: 140 Prompts for Designing and Executing an Effective Thought Leadership Campaign (yes, that’s really the title, you can do that when you self-publish); THINKaha; 2012-10-06; 161 pages; ISBN:1616990929; Amazon:B009VJOZLQ: Kindle: $10, paper: $5+SHT.


  • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
    claim: links metaphor to strategy
  • Metafuture, a consultancy, training services.
  • Volatile, Uncertain, Complex Ambiguous (VUCA)
  • Scenarios, a.k.a. “alternative futures”
    definition: set of fictional narratives reflecting plausible future worlds
  • Kerr Smith, a design shop.
  • Generic Alternative Futures
    of the Manoa School.
  • Industry 4.0
  • Millennials
  • Generation Z.
  • Udacity
  • Knowledge Works
  • YouTube
  • Visioning
  • Roadmapping
    something about Systems Thinking
  • Future of Cities
  • Thought Leaders
  • Arup Foresight
  • Preferred Futures
  • Big History Project
    • Big Time
    • Big Space
  • Implications Wheel®
  • Futures Wheel
  • Futures Triangle
  • The Six Pillars Method
  • Futures
    • Negative Futures
    • Positive Futures
  • <aphorism>futurists are like gardeners</aphorism>
  • Bloom’s Taxonomy
    • a pedagogical theory
    • Benjamin Bloom
    • 1956
  • Anticipatory Action Learning (AAL)
  • Multiple Selves Theory
    perhaps David Lester
  • Visioning
  • Backcasting (contra Forecasting)
  • Delphi Method
  • Anthropology
    • “tribes” of consumer classes
    • user research, consumer research
    • The Focus Group
    • e.g. self-employed, sole proprietors, journeymen, tradesmen.
  • Internet of Things (IoT)
  • Triple Bottom Line (3BL)
    • Concept
      • Social
      • Environmental (also, ecological)
      • Financial
    • Jimi Wales’ Wiki
    • Contra
      • Double Bottom Line
        (Regular) Bottom Line.
  • Weak Signals
  • Megatrends
    • Social, Demographic, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political (STEEP)
    • Probably other acronyms as well
  • burgeoning fields


Anticipatory Action Learning (AAL)

  • Sketch of the Concept: none
    Seems to be a group process facilitation method with guard precepts around “the triggers.”  Something about how AAL is better; gives more confidence in treated subjects and … the salubrious result obtains.
  • Definition
    • <quote>unique style of questioning the future</quote>
  • Non-Concepts
    • <quote>while critical, it does not accede to any particular tradition of
      critical theory (Continental or Indic, for example) but rather draws from the actors’ ownepistemological categories.</quote>
  • Steps: unknown
  • Goals
    • better alternative futures, better scenarios; less boosterism, gee whiz!
    • <quote cite=ref section=4>A crucial factor is seeing futures not only as forecasting but as creating confidence individuals’ and systems’ abilities to creatively adapt to new challenges. The anticipatory action learning dimension is decisive. <snip/> Organizational, social, environmental, cultural and spiritual innovation is one of the most important potential contributions of Futures Studies.</quote>
  • Separation of Concerns
    1. Sensitivity to the social norms
    2. Discomfort with the material (“the struggle”)
    3. Will can be “appropriatable by power” by “official futures” [is that good or bad?]
    4. Notional “resistance” is to be respected; negotiated with, not removed.
    5. The Other.
  • References

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

  • Sketch of the Concept, among the link chiclets of Tricia Lustig, at pearltrees.
  • Steps
    Recite & elaborate

    1. Litany, of operating assumptions
    2. Systems and Institutions
    3. Worldviews, the values and tacit knowledge of Systems and Institutions
    4. Myths & Metaphors, narratives, framing, language usage, etc. c.f. Lakoff; e.g. “war against” { drugs, cancer, poverty, terrorism, Christmas }.
  • References

Delphi Method

  • Sketch of the Concept: none
  • Steps
    • Interview many.
    • Blend
    • Synthesize a “consensus opinion.”
    • Report out.
  • References

Futures Wheel

  • Sketch of the Concept, among the link chiclets of Tricia Lustig, at pearltrees.
  • Steps
    • Pretend the change has already happened.
    • Elaborate.
    • Focus on unintended consequences.
  • References
    • Obvious

Generic Alternative Futures (GAF), of the Manoa School

  • Sketch of the Method
    • alternative futures, a.k.a. “scenarios”
    • futures visioning process (five futures)
    • generic alternative futures (four)
      1. continuation
      2. collapse
      3. discipline
      4. transformation
    • preferred alternative future (plus one)
      1. preferred
  • References

Mulitple Selves Theory

  • Concept
    just what it says
  • Genre
    • personality development
    • child development
    • etc.
  • References
    • David Lester; A Multiple Self Theory of Personality; Nova Science Publishers, 1st edition; 2010-03-30; 186 pages; ASIN:1608767833 kindle: no, paper: $70+SHT.


Three Horizons

  • Sketch of the Method, among the link chiclets of Tricia Lustig, at pearltrees
  • Concepts (the plurals):
    • Horizons named as Horizon #0, Horizon #1, Horizon #2, Horizon #3.
    • Tomorrows named as “tomorrow++”, “tomorrow+”
  • Steps
    1. Identify Horizon #0 Recent enough past for context
    2. Identify Horizon #1, the present
    3. Imagine “tomorrow++”
      This is Horizon #3, the possible future of “30-years hence”
    4. Imagine “tomorrow +” as a blend between Horizon #1 & Horizon #3.
      This is Horizon #2, as the reasoned path-based narration from Horizon #1 & Horizon #3.
  • Reference

Six Pillars Method

  • Sketch of the Method
  • Concepts
  • Steps
    1. Mapping the Present and the Future
      Apply: futures triangle, futures landscape.
    2. Anticipating the Future
      Apply:  emerging issues analysis, futures wheel.
    3. Timing the Future
      Apply: macrohistory, macrofutures.
    4. Deepening the Future
      Apply: causal layered analysis, multiple selves theory.
    5. Creating Alternatives to the Present
      Apply: scenarios, nuts and bolts[?]
    6. Transforming the Present and Creating the Future
      Apply: visioning, backcasting, anticipatory action learning, the transcend conflict resolution method.
  • References


  • Concept: envisioning, imagining.
  • References
    • Obvious


In order of appearance in the work product…

Liz Alexander
Ross Dawson
  • Ross Dawson
  • a promoter
  • founder or co-founder of six (6) companies
    • Rh7thm
    • Advanced Human Technologies
  • Basis: Sydney, Australia
Lynn Curry
Proprietor, CurryCorp
CurryCorp offers training services. <quote>optimizes organizational performance</quote>
Sohail Inayatullah
  • UNESCO Chair for Futures Studies at USIM, Malaysia.
  • Professor, Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at
    • Tamkang University
    • Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne;
    • University of the Sunshine Coast.
  • Elsewhere attributed as:
    • Professor of Futures Studies, International Management Centres
    • Professorial Research Fellow, Tamkang University, Taiwan
    • Visiting Academic at the Communication Center, Queensland University of Technology.
    • Associate editor of New Renaissance
    • Co-editor of the Journal of Futures Studies.
Robert Burke
  • instructor with Sohail Inayatullah, “Futures Thinking and Strategy Development at Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne.
  • offered taught a residential four-day Futures Thinking and Strategy Development Program on a twice-yearly cadence at Melbourne Business School for over 15 years.
  • a director of Futureware Consulting
  • associate of Melbourne Business School, the University of Melbourne.
  • Previously
    • CEO-title roles, various.
Sohail Inayatullah
has many appointments
Ira Wolfe
Ruben Nelson
  • Executive Director of Foresight Canada.
  • Vice Chair, the Institute on Religion in an Age of Science.
  • Honors (from)
    • Queen’s University
    • the Queen’s Calgary Alumni
    • Fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science
    • The World Business Academy
    • The Meridian Institute on Leadership, Governance, Change and the Future
Rushdi Abdul Rahim
  • A Senior Vice President at MIGHT
    MIGHT is a policy shop supervised by the Prime Minister’s Department, Malaysia
  • The Director of myForesight® – the Malaysian Foresight Institute.
Kyle Brown
  • from Toronto, Canada
  • Senior Foresight Strategist, Idea Couture
    Idea Couture is an idea shop
  • ex-staff Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Mark Tuckwood
  • Leading Thought associate
  • founder and principal at Insight Gravity
    Insight Gravity is an idea shop
William Gibson
And which quote do you think they selected?
Victor Vahidi Motti
  • News Editor and Co-Chair of the Youth Council for the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF)
  • Honors
    • WFSF President’s Outstanding Young Futurists Award in 2013
    • is internationally-renowned
Joel Barker
  • a really great guy
  • “first person to popularize” credit for the concept of the “paradigm shift”
Tom Cheesewright
  • English (UK)
  • a corporate trainer
Patricia Lustig
  • Also “Tricia” Lustig; c.f. tricialustig
  • CEO of LASA Insight Ltd.
  • UK-based
  • practitioner in the methods
  • “author” credit, Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future; Triarchy Press; 2015-07-15; 186 pages; Amazon:190947066X: Kindle: $16, paper: $21+SHT.
Umar Sheraz Sheraz
  • Senior Research Officer, Center for Policy Studies at the COMSATS Institute of Information Technology in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Jonathan Peck
  • President, Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF)
  • President, Alternative Futures Associates (AFA), the for-profit subsidiary
  • Credits
    • “leader” credit in “aspirational futures”
      … which <quote>integrates vision into scenario development</quote>
    • the method has been used in billable practice.
Jörn Bühring
  • Dr. Jörn Bühring
  • Research Assistant Professor, School of Design, Hong Kong Polytechnic University of Technology
  • program leader of the [Design] School’s Ignite Innovation Program
  • Has performed billable work for industry
  • He likes design-inspired foresight, vision and fiction.
Anne Boysen
  • Founder of After the Millennials,
    After the Millennials is an idea shop.
  • Associate,Leading Thought
  • A practitioner.
  • A graduate of the Foresight Program of the University of Houston.
Andrew Staines
Lisa Galarneau
  • Dr. Lisa Galarneau
  • An anthropologist
    A socio-cultural anthropologist
  • Graduated 25 years ago.
  • Employment: Amazon
Jacques Barcia
  • Jacques Barcia
  • Brazilian citizenship
  • Trade: reporter.
  • Has won awards
  • is an award-winning
  • “responsible” credit Mind the Future program at Porto Digital
    Porto Digital is an idea shop.
  • Staff, Dream Machine Futures Studio
    Dream Machine Futures Studio is an idea shop
Alice Walker
is quoted
Radha Mistry
  • Radha Mistry
  • Employment
  • Applied Research and Consulting (Division), Steelcase
  • Previous
    • Arup Foresight, London
    • Arup Foresight, San Francisco.
Frank Spencer
Puruesh Chaudhary
  • Founder and President of AGAHI
    AGAHI, Foresight Lab is an idea shop
  • Pakistan.
  • member, the Global Shapers Community, World Economic Forum
Mazlan Othman
  • Dr. Mazlan Othman
  • Credits
    • “first astro-physicist of Malaysia”
Brian David Johnson



  • Burston Marsteller
  • Ford
  • OECD
  • SAP



  • Arizona State University
  • University of Houston
  • University of Hawaii, Manoa



  • Drivers Of Change

Cover: Le Moal Olivier
Interior: everythingpossible



in arbitrary order…

Previously filled.

The Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade | Pew Research Center

, ; The Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade; Pew Research Center; 2017-08-10; 89 pages; landing.


Many experts say lack of trust will not be a barrier to increased public reliance on the internet. Those who are hopeful that trust will grow expect technical and regulatory change will combat users’ concerns about security and privacy. Those who have doubts about progress say people are inured to risk, addicted to convenience and will not be offered alternatives to online interaction. Some expect the very nature of trust will change.


  • Delphi-type survey design
  • N=1,233
  • A pull-quote generation vehicle. To Wit.


  • 48% → trust will be strengthened
  • 28% → trust will stay the same
  • 24% → trust will be diminished


Six major themes on the future of trust in online interactions

Theme 1
Trust will strengthen because systems will improve and people will adapt to them and more broadly embrace them

  • Better technology plus regulatory and industry changes will help increase trust
  • The younger generation and people whose lives rely on technology the most are the vanguard of those who most actively use it, and these groups will grow larger
Theme 2
The nature of trust will become more fluid as technology embeds itself into human and organizational relationships

  • Trust will be dependent upon immediate context and applied differently in different circumstances
  • Trust is not binary or evenly distributed; there are different levels of it
Theme 3
Trust will not grow, but technology usage will continue to rise, as a “new normal” sets in

  • “The trust train has left the station”; sacrifices tied to trust are a “side effect of progress”
  • People often become attached to convenience and inured to risk
  • There will be no choice for users but to comply and hope for the best
Theme 4
Some say blockchain could help; some expect its value might be limited

  • Blockchain has potential to improve things
  • There are reasons to think blockchain might not be as disruptive and important as its advocates expect it to be
Theme 5
The less-than-satisfying current situation will not change much in the next decade
Theme 6
Trust will diminish because the internet is not secure, and powerful forces threaten individuals’ rights

  • Corporate and government interests are not motivated to improve trust or protect the public
  • Criminal exploits will diminish trust


Imagining The Internet (Center)
  • Pew Research Center
  • Elon University

Previously filled.

Code Dependent: Pros and Cons of the Algorithm Age | Pew Research

, ; Code Dependent: Pros and Cons of the Algorithm Age; 2017-02-08; 87 pages; landing.
Teaser: Algorithms are aimed at optimizing everything. They can save lives, make things easier and conquer chaos. Still, experts worry they can also put too much control in the hands of corporations and governments, perpetuate bias, create filter bubbles, cut choices, creativity and serendipity, and could result in greater unemployment.

tl;dr → there be dragons; this is an important area; the future is at stake; the alarum has been sounded; there are seers who can show us the way. In their own words.


Future of the Internet, of Pew Research & Elon University.

Table of Contents

  • Overview
  • Themes illuminating concerns and challenges
  • Key experts’ thinking about the future impacts of algorithms
  • About this canvassing of experts
  • Theme 1: Algorithms will continue to spread everywhere
  • Theme 2: Good things lie ahead
  • Theme 3: Humanity and human judgment are lost when data and predictive modeling become paramount
  • Theme 4: Biases exist in algorithmically-organized systems
  • Theme 5: Algorithmic categorizations deepen divides
  • Theme 6: Unemployment will rise
  • Theme 7: The need grows for algorithmic literacy, transparency and oversight
  • Acknowledgments


Code-Dependent: Pros and Cons of the Algorithm Age; , (Pew Research Center); In Their Blog; 2017-02-08.

Teaser: Algorithms are aimed at optimizing everything. They can save lives, make things easier and conquer chaos. Still, experts worry they can also put too much control in the hands of corporations and governments, perpetuate bias, create filter bubbles, cut choices, creativity and serendipity, and could result in greater unemployment/


  • Pew Research Center of the Pew Charitable Trusts
  • Imagining the Internet Center at Elon Univesity
  • <ahem>the Singularity enthusiasts … .</ahem>


  1. Algorithms will continue to spread everywhere
  2. Good things lie ahead
  3. Humanity adn human judgement are lost wwhen data nad predictive modeling become paramount
  4. Biases exist in algorithymically-organized systems
  5. algorithmic categorizations deepen divides
  6. Unemployment will rise
  7. The need grows for algorithmic literacy, transparency and oversight.


  • <snicker>Artificial Intelligence (AI)</snicker>
  • algocratic governance
  • surveillance capitalism
  • information capitalism
  • topsight
  • black-box nature [of]
  • digital scientism
  • obedience score


  • Aneesh Aneesh, Stanford University.
  • Peter Diamandis, CEO, XPrize Foundation.
  • Shoshana Zuboff, Harvard.
  • Jim Warren, activist.
  • Terry Langendoen, expert, U.S. National Science Foundation.
  • Patrick Tucker technology editor at Defense One,.
  • Paul Jones, clinical professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and director of
  • David Krieger, director of the Institute for Communication & Leadership IKF,.
  • Galen Hunt, partner research manager at Microsoft Research NExT,.
  • Alf Rehn, professor and chair of management and organization at Åbo Akademi University in Finland,.
  • Andrew Nachison, founder at We Media,.
  • Luis Lach, president of the Sociedad Mexicana de Computación en la Educación, A.C.
  • Frank Pasquale, professor of law, University of Maryland.
  • Jeff Jarvis, reporter.
  • Cindy Cohn, executive director at the Electronic Frontier Foundation,.
  • Bernardo A. Huberman, senior fellow and director of the Mechanisms and Design Lab at HPE Labs, Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
  • Marcel bullinga, expert.
  • Michael Rogers, principal, Practical Futurist.
  • Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths.
  • David Gelertner.
  • Deloitte Global (anonymous contributors).
  • Barry Chudakov, founder and principal at Sertain Research and StreamFuzion Corp.
  • Stephen Downes, staff, National Research Council of Canada,.
  • Bart Knijnenburg, assistant professor in human-centered computing at Clemson University.
  • Justin Reich, executive director at the MIT Teaching Systems Lab.
  • Dudley Irish, tradesman (a coder).
  • Ryan Hayes, owner of Fit to Tweet,.
  • Adam Gismondi, a visiting scholar at Boston College.
  • Susan Etlinger, staff, Altimeter Group.
  • Chris Kutarna, fellow, Oxford Martin School.
  • Vintno Cert, Internet Hall of Fame, vice president and chief internet evangelist at Google:.
  • Cory Doctorow, writer, computer science activist-in-residence at MIT Media Lab and co-owner of Boing Boing.
  • Jonathan Grudin, Microsoft.
  • Doc Searls, director, Project VRM, Berkman Center, Harvard University,.
  • Marc Rotenberg, executive director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center.
  • Richard Stallman, Internet Hall of Fame, president of the Free Software Foundation.
  • David Clark, Internet Hall of Fame, senior research scientist at MIT,.
  • Baratunde Thurston, Director’s Fellow at MIT Media Lab, ex-digital director of The Onion.
  • Anil Dash, pundit.
  • John Markoff, New York Times.
  • Danah Boyd (“danah boyd”), founder, Data & Society, an advocacy group.
  • Henning Schulzrinne, Internet Hall of Fame, professor at Columbia University,.
  • Amy Webb, futurist and CEO at the Future Today Institute.
  • Jamais Cascio, distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future.
  • Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future,.
  • Ben Shneiderman, professor of computer science at the University of Maryland,.
  • David Weinberger, senior researcher at the Harvard Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society.


Previously filled.

The Futures of Everyday Life: Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios | Stuart Candy

Stuart Candy; The Futures of Everyday Life: Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios; Ph.D. Dissertation; University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa; 2010-08; 372 pages; DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.1840.0248; ResearchGate.


The great existential challenges facing the human species can be traced, in part, to the fact that we have underdeveloped discursive practices for thinking possible worlds ‘out loud’, performatively and materially, in the register of experience. That needs to change. In this dissertation, a methodology for ‘experiential scenarios’, covering a range of interventions and media from immersive performance to stand-alone ‘artifacts from the future’, is offered as a partial corrective. The beginnings of aesthetic, political and ethical frameworks for ‘experiential futures’ are proposed, drawing on alternative futures methodology, the emerging anti- mediumist practice of ‘experience design’, and the theoretical perspective of a Rancièrian ‘politics of aesthetics’. The relationships between these three domains — futures, design, and politics — are explored to show how and why they are coming together, and what each has to offer the others. The upshot is that our apparent binary choice between unthinkable dystopia and unimaginable utopia is a false dilemma, because in fact, we can and should imagine ‘possibility space’ hyperdimensionally, and seek to flesh out worlds hitherto supposed unimaginable or unthinkable on a daily basis. Developed from early deployments across a range of settings in everyday life, from urban guerrilla-style activism to corporate consulting, experiential scenarios do not offer definitive answers as to how the future will look, or even how it should look, but they can contribute to a mental ecology within which these questions may be posed and discussed more effectively than ever before.


Experiential Scenarios


A [better] mental ecology in which [futures] questions may be posed and discussed.

  • a diagnosis
  • a methodology
  • a corrective
  • a framework


  • (thinking) out loud
  • (thinking) performatively and materially
  • the register of experience
  • artifacts from the future
  • experiential futures
  • alternative futures methodology
  • experience designthe emerging anti- mediumist practice of)
  • Jacques Rancière, b1940, see Jimi Wales’ Wiki
  • politics of aesthetics
  • possibility space
  • hyperdimensionally
  • futures
  • design
  • politics
  • unthinkable dystopia
  • unimaginable utopia

Claim: a false dilemma, no a binary choice.

  • urban guerrilla-style activism
  • corporate consulting

as such: all

    • Jim Dator

, chair

  • Michael J. Shapiro
  • Debora Halbert
  • Stephen Duncombe
  • Markus Wessendorf

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgements
  • Abstract
  • List of Figures
  • Introduction. The Unthinkable And The Unimaginable
  • Chapter 1. Beyond Utopia And Dystopia
    • Three easy pieces
      1. Alternative futures
      2. Images of the future
      3. The trio of possible, probable and preferable futures
    • Mapping possibility space
    • A note about theory
    • Generating scenarios
    • The four generic futures
    • Four corners of possibility space
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 2. From Experiential Gulf To Experiential Scenario
    • A tale of two cities
      1. New Orleans: Blindsided by Katrina
      2. Detroit: The future that couldn’t last
    • Lessons from New Orleans and Detroit
    • Another hurricane, and the experiential gulf
    • Reuniting brain and body
    • Mind the gap
    • For a mundane turn in futures
    • Experiential scenarios: a case study
    • Experience design
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 3. The Politics Of Futures And Design
    • Scoping the political
    • Futures and design, considered politically
      1. Critical, political futures
      2. The politics of design
        1. Take One: Design as a signal of human intention
        2. Take Two: Design as reshaping the material world
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 4. Why Futures And Design Are Getting Married
    • A good fit
    • Deepening discourse by design
      1. Discursive, critical and interrogative design
      2. Design fiction
    • The dance depends on who leads
    • Three principles for designing experiential scenarios
      1. Don’t break the universe
      2. The tip of the iceberg
      3. The art of the double take
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 5. Guerrillas In The Wild
    • Situating guerrilla futures
    • Culture jamming and prefigurative politics
      1. Jamming the future
      2. Performing the preferred future
    • Three guerrilla futures interventions
      1. New York Times Special Edition
      2. Hawaii Blue Line Project
      3. FoundFutures: Chinatown
    • A comparative case study
      1. Space
      2. Media
      3. Time
      4. Narrative
      5. Audience Involvement
    • Evaluating political effectiveness
    • A checklist for guerrilla engagement
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 6. Scenario, Simulation, Hoax
    • An ontological spectrum
    • Three discursive technologies
    • Experiential concreteness and indispensable mimesis
    • Two Halloweens (Tricks, or treats?)
      1. War of the Worlds
      2. Hell House
    • Two ethical risks
      1. Distressing?
      2. Misleading?
    • Towards an ethics of experiential futures
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter 7. The Futures Of Everyday Life
    • Has futures studies failed?
    • What would it mean to succeed?
    • How are we approaching it?
      1. Future-shock therapy vs ambient foresight
      2. Foresight that is like falling off a log
      3. Ambient foresight nodes
      4. Ambient foresight networks
      5. The limits of ambience?
    • A futures-oriented social ecology
    • Conclusion
  • Conclusion. How We Might Feel Tomorrow
  • References


There are 496 references, pages 327-336.

  1. Abel, Jenny and Jeff Hockett (dir.), 2005, Abel Raises Cain (Documentary). United States: Crashcourse Documentaries.
  2. Adams, Douglas, 2005 [1979], The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. USA: Del Rey.
  3. Adbusters Media Foundation, n.d., Spoof ads gallery, ‘Obsession for Women’.
  4. Aldrich, Clark, 2004, Simulations and the Future of Learning: An Innovative (and Perhaps Revolutionary) Approach to e-Learning. San Francisco: Pfeiffer / John Wiley & Sons.
  5. Alvin and Heidi Toffler personal website.
  6. Amara, Roy, 1974, ‘The futures field: functions, forms and critical issues’. Futures, 6(4): 289-301.
  7. Amara, Roy, 1981a, ‘The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries’. The Futurist 15(1): 25-29 (February).
  8. Amara, Roy, 1981b, ‘The Futures Field: How to Tell Good Work from Bad’. The Futurist, 15(2): 63-71 (April).
  9. Amara, Roy, 1981c, ‘The Futures Field: Which Direction Now?’. The Futurist, 15(3): 42-46 (June).
  10. Anderson, Paul Thomas (dir.), 1997, Boogie Nights (Motion Picture), United States: New Line Cinema.
  11. Anderson, Walter Truett, 1987, To Govern Evolution: Further Adventures of the Political Animal. Boston: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  12. Antonelli, Paola, 2008, Design and the Elastic Mind. New York: Museum of Modern Art.
  13. Arakawa, Lynda, 2009, ‘Isles host talks on climate change’, Honolulu Advertiser, 28 January.
  14. Architecture 2030, Project website.
  15. Arnold, Kevin, 2004, ‘Tragedy of the Mental Commons’. Adbusters, 51 (January/ February). (Internet Archive Wayback Machine, cached 7 February 2004, accessed 22 June 2010.)
  16. Arrow, Kenneth et al., 2008, ‘The Promise of Prediction Markets’. Science, 320 (16 May): 877-878.
  17. Atlee, Tom, 2003(?), ‘Crisis Fatigue and the Co-Creation of Positive Possibilities’. The Co-Intelligence Institute.
  18. Atwood, Margaret, 1988 [1985], The Handmaid’s Tale. New York: Anchor Books.
  19. Baerten, Nik, 2008, ‘Nathan Shedroff: futures, experiences & design’. A Thousand Tomorrows blog, 1 October.
  20. Barbrook, Richard, 2007, Imaginary Futures: From Thinking Machines to the Global Village. London: Pluto Press.
  21. Barnes, Russell (dir.), 2006, Root of All Evil?, Part 2, ‘The Virus of Faith’ (Documentary Series). United Kingdom: IWC Media Limited (for Channel 4).
  22. Barnouw, Erik, 1968, The Golden Web: A History of Broadcasting in the United States, Volume II — 1933 to 1953. New York, Oxford University Press.
  23. Baudrillard, Jean, 1994, Simulacra and Simulation (trans. Sheila Faria Glaser). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  24. ‘The Beast’ Alternate Reality Game, Wikipedia entry. The_Beast_(game)
  25. Bell, Wendell, 2003 [1997], Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era, Vol. 1: History, Purposes, Knowledge. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.
  26. Bell, Wendell, 2004 [1997], Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era, Vol. 2: Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.
  27. Bergson, Henri, 2004 [1912], Matter and Memory (trans. Nancy Margaret Paul and W. Scott Palmer). New York: Dover.
  28. Bey, Hakim, 1985, T.A.Z.: The Temporary Autonomous Zone. The Anarchist Library. [Available online at]
  29. Bezold, Clement and Trevor Hancock, 1993, ‘An Overview of the Health Futures Field for the WHO Health Futures Consultation’. In: Ann Taket, Health Futures in Support of Health for All, Report of an International Consultation convened by the World Health Organization. Geneva: World Health Organization, 69-91.
  30. Bichlbaum, Andy, Mike Bonanno and Kurt Engfehr (dir.), 2009, The Yes Men Fix the World (Documentary). United States: Home Box Office (HBO).
  31. Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, 2007, ‘The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques’. Foresight, 9(1): 5-25.
  32. Bishop, Peter, 2009, ‘Thinking About the Future: A User’s Guide’. Presentation at the World Futures Society Conference, Chicago, 16 July. [slide deck]
  33. Bleecker, Julian, 2006, ‘EKO’s and Theory Objects, or — Why Do I Blog This?’. Near Future Laboratory, 31 January.—-why-do-i-blog-this/
  34. Bleecker, Julian, 2009, ‘Design Fiction: A short essay on design fact and fiction’. Near-Future Laboratory, 17 March.
  35. Bleecker, Julian et al., 2010, ‘Design Fiction: Props, Prototypes, Predicaments Communicating New Ideas’. Panel at South by Southwest Interactive, Austin, TX, 13 March. [audio]
  36. Bohm, David, 1994, Thought as a System. London: Routledge.
  37. Book of the Revelation of John, New Testament.
  38. Borges, Jorge Luis, 1964, Dreamtigers (trans. Mildred Boyer and Harold Borland). Austin: University of Texas Press.
  39. Börjeson, Lena et al., 2006, ‘Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide’. Futures, 38(7): 723-739.
  40. Bortolotti, Lisa and Matteo Mameli, 2006, ‘Deception in Psychology: Moral costs and benefits of unsought self-knowledge’. Accountability in Research, 13(3): 259–275.
  41. Boulding, Elise, 1978, ‘The Dynamics of Imaging Futures’. World Future Society Bulletin, 12(5): 1-8.
  42. Boulding, Elise, 1990, Building a Global Civic Culture: Education for an Interdependent World. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.
  43. Bourdieu, Pierre, 1990, The Logic of Practice (trans. Richard Nice). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
  44. Boyle, Kevin, 2001, ‘The Ruins of Detroit: Exploring the Urban Crisis in the Motor City’. The Michigan Historical Review, 27(1): 109-127.
  45. Brand, Stewart, 1994, How Buildings Learn: What Happens After They’re Built. New York: Viking Penguin.
  46. Brand, Stewart, 2000, The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility. New York: Basic Books.
  47. Brand, Stewart, 2009, Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto. New York: Viking.
  48. Branwyn, Gareth, 1997, Jamming the Media: A Citizen’s Guide: Reclaiming the Tools of Communication. San Francisco: Chronicle Books.
  49. Bright, Kevin (dir.), 2001, Friends, Season 8, Episode 1, ‘The One After I Do’ (Television Program). United States: Bright/Kauffman/Crane Productions. Quotation via Internet Movie Database.
  50. Brown, Tim, with Barry Katz, 2009, Change by Design: How Design Thinking Transforms Organizations and Inspires Innovation. New York: Harper Business.
  51. Bruder, Jessica, 2007, Burning Book: A Visual History of Burning Man. New York: Simon Spotlight Entertainment.
  52. Brumbaugh, Robert S., 1966, ‘Applied Metaphysics: Truth and Passing Time’. The Review of Metaphysics, 19(4): 647-666.
  53. Bruner, Jerome, 1986, Actual Minds, Possible Worlds. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  54. Burns, Colin et al., 2006, Transformation Design. RED Paper 02, Design Council, London.
  55. Cacophony Society, Wikipedia entry.
  56. Callenbach, Ernest, 2004 [1975], Ecotopia: The Notebooks and Reports of William Weston. Berkeley, CA: Banyan Tree Books.
  57. Candy, Stuart, 2006a, ‘Cascio Rocks the Rafters’. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies blog, 25 August.
  58. Candy, Stuart, 2006b, ‘Death of a President’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 12 November.
  59. Candy, Stuart, 2006c, ‘The Future of Futurism’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 3 July.
  60. Candy, Stuart, 2007a, ‘4-2050s’. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies blog, 7 March.
  61. Candy, Stuart, 2007b, ‘The Bird Cage’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 26 October.
  62. Candy, Stuart, 2007c, ‘Footwear for a warmer world’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 24 July.
  63. Candy, Stuart, 2007d, ‘Found futures’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 30 May.
  64. Candy, Stuart, 2007e, ‘Green Dragon’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 25 October.
  65. Candy, Stuart, 2007f, ‘It looks like rain’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 2 August.
  66. Candy, Stuart, 2007g, ‘McChinatown’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 25 October.
  67. Candy, Stuart, 2007h, ‘Neill Blomkamp, visual futurist’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 8 August.
  68. Candy, Stuart, 2007i, ‘Outdoor installation takes cover’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 26 October.
  69. Candy, Stuart, 2007j, ‘We are all temporal chauvinists now’. The Long Now Foundation Blog, 13 September.
  70. Candy, Stuart, 2008a, ‘Architectural time travel’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 8 October.
  71. Candy, Stuart, 2008b, ‘The future as caricature (part one)’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 20 February.
  72. Candy, Stuart, 2008c, ‘Future-jamming 101’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 10 September.
  73. Candy, Stuart, 2008d, ‘Future news-flash: your vote counts’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 24 October.
  74. Candy, Stuart, 2008e, ‘Future watch’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 4 August.
  75. Candy, Stuart, 2008f, ‘Good news for people who love bad news’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 16 January.
  76. Candy, Stuart, 2008g, ‘Greener Gadgets’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 3 April.
  77. Candy, Stuart, 2008h, ‘Mapping c-change’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 22 February.
  78. Candy, Stuart, 2008i, ‘Object-oriented futuring’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 2 November.
  79. Candy, Stuart, 2008j, ‘Put on a happy face’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 21 May.
  80. Candy, Stuart, 2008k, ‘Sometimes it doesn’t belong in a museum’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 5 March.
  81. Candy, Stuart, 2008l, ‘Surveillance Supreme’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 24 November.
  82. Candy, Stuart, 2008m, ‘Tangible futures’ (interview with Victor Lombardi). The Sceptical Futuryst, 17 November.
  83. Candy, Stuart, 2008n, ‘White House Redux’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 22 November.
  84. Candy, Stuart, 2008o, ‘World Without Oil Photo Essay’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 29 January.
  85. Candy, Stuart, 2009a, ‘Killer Imps’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 27 March.
  86. Candy, Stuart, 2009b, ‘Refugee Run’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 16 February.
  87. Candy, Stuart, 2009c, ‘Thoughts about feelies’. The Sceptical Futuryst, 26 February.
  88. Carbon Trust (UK), 2010, ‘Carbon footprinting’.
  89. Card, Orson Scott, 1985, Ender’s Game. New York: Tor Books.
  90. Caron, Bruce, 2006, ‘Welcome to Santa Barbara’s Lightblueline Action’. lightblueline Project website, 3 November.
  91. Cascio, Jamais, 2006, ‘Hawaii 2050’. Open the Future blog, 29 August.
  92. Cascio, Jamais, 2008, ‘Mozilla Scenarios’. Open the Future blog, 6 August.
  93. Cascio, Jamais, n.d., ‘The Cheeseburger Footprint’. Open the Future blog.
  94. 333Center for Advanced Visual Studies website, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
  95. Cerf, Christopher and Victor Navasky, 1998, The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation (revised ed.). New York: Villard.
  96. Chaiken, Shelly and Yaacov Trope (eds.), 1999, Dual-Process Theories in Social Psychology. New York: Guilford.
  97. Chan, Sewell, 2008, ‘Liberal Pranksters Hand Out Times Spoof’. City Room blog, New York Times, 12 November.
  98. Chaplin, George and Glenn D. Paige (eds.), 1973, Hawaii 2000: Continuing Experiment in Anticipatory Democracy. Honolulu: The University Press of Hawaii for the Governor’s Conference on the Year 2000.
  99. Charmr: Adaptive Path diabetes management design concept, 2007, YouTube, August 14.
  100. Chartier, Roger, 2006, ‘Histoire des mentalités’. In: Lawrence D. Kritzman (ed.), 2006, The Columbia History of Twentieth-century French Thought. New York: Columbia University Press, 54-59.
  101. Chermack, Thomas J., Susan A. Lynham, and Wendy E.A. Ruona, 2001, ‘A Review of Scenario Planning Literature’. Futures Research Quarterly, 17(2): 7-31.
  102. Chicago Public Radio, 2002, ‘This American Life #213: ‘Devil on my Shoulder’, first broadcast 24 May.
  103. Chicago Public Radio, 2005, ‘This American Life #296: After the Flood’, first broadcast 9 September.
  104. Coughlan, Peter and Ilya Prokopoff, 2004, ‘Managing Change, by Design’. In: Richard J. Boland Jr. and Fred Collopy, Managing as Designing. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 188- 192.
  105. CRED, 2009, The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public. Center for Research on Environmental Decisions. New York: Columbia University.
  106. Crichton, Michael (dir.), 1973, Westworld (Motion Picture). United States: Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM).
  107. Cuarón, Alfonso (dir.), 2006, Children of Men (Motion Picture). Japan / United Kingdom / United States: Universal Pictures.
  108. Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz, 2009, ‘Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures’. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4): 35-60.
  109. Curtis, Adam (dir.), 2002, The Century of the Self (Documentary Series). United Kingdom: British Broadcasting Corporation.
  110. Damasio, Antonio, 1994, Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Avon Books.
  111. Dator, Jim, 1979, ‘The Futures of Culture or Cultures of the Future’. In: Anthony J. Marsella, Roland G. Tharp and Thomas J. Ciboroski (eds.), Perspectives on Cross-Cultural Psychology. New York: Academic Press, 369-388.
  112. Dator, Jim, 1986, ‘Futures report : The futures of futures studies — the view from Hawaii’. Futures, 18(3), 440-445.
  113. Dator, Jim, 1987, ‘Hawaii 2000, The World Futures Studies Federation, and Me: Thinking Locally and Acting Globally’. In: Michael Marien and Lane Jennings (eds.), What I Have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now. New York: Greenwood Press, 87-100.
  114. Dator, Jim, 1993, ‘From Future Workshops to Envisioning Alternative Futures’. Futures Research Quarterly, 9(3): 108-112 (Fall).
  115. Dator, Jim, 1996a, ‘Foreword’. In: Richard Slaughter (ed.), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (3 vols.). Hawthorne, Australia: DDM Media Group.
  116. Dator, Jim, 1996b, ‘Futures Studies as Applied Knowledge’. In: Richard Slaughter (ed.), New Thinking for a New Millennium. London: Routledge.
  117. Dator, Jim, 1997, ‘Responsible for Your Rose’. Futuribili, 3: 75-99 (published in Italian, trans. Eleonora Masini).
  118. Dator, Jim, 1998, ‘The Future Lies Behind! Thirty Years of Teaching Futures Studies’. American Behavioral Scientist, 42: 298-319 (November). [Republished in Dator 2002, 1-30. Full text at]
  119. Dator, Jim et al., 1999, Hawaii 2000: Past, Present and Future. Report prepared for the Office of Planning, Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT), Honolulu: Social Science Research Institute, University of Hawaii, December.
  120. Dator, Jim, 1999, ‘Return to long waves’, Futures, 31(3-4): 361–372.
  121. Dator, James A. (ed.), 2002, Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Westport, CT: Praeger.
  122. Dator, Jim, 2005, ‘De-Colonizing the Future’, Journal of Futures Studies, 9(3): 93-104. [First published in shortened form in Andrew A. Spekke (ed.), 1975, The Next 25 years: Crisis & Opportunity. Washington, DC: World Future Society.]
  123. Dator, Jim, 2006, Keynote address at ‘Securing the future: Networked policing in New Zealand’, Symposium proceedings, 22 November.
  124. Dator, Jim, 2009, ‘Alternative Futures at the Manoa School’, Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2): 1-18.
  125. Dator, Jim, n.d., ‘Society as a social invention and you as a social inventor’. [MS Word document]
  126. Dator, Jim and Yongseok Seo, 2004, ‘Korea as the Wave of a Future: The Emerging Dream Society of Icons and Aesthetic Experience’. Journal of Futures Studies, 9(1): 31-44 (August).
  127. Dawkins, Richard, 2006 [1976], The Selfish Gene. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  128. Debatty, Regine, 2008, ‘Prosthesis for a Lost Instinct’. we-make-money-not-art, 21 February.
  129. de Bono, Edward, 1991, I Am Right – You Are Wrong. London: Penguin.
  130. de Bono, Edward, 1998, How to be More Interesting. London: Penguin.
  131. Debord, Guy, 1994 [1967], The Society of the Spectacle (trans. Donald Nicholson-Smith), New York: Zone Books.
  132. de Certeau, Michel, 1984, The Practice of Everyday Life (trans. Steven Rendall). Berkeley: University of California Press.
  133. de Certeau, Michel, 1988, The Writing of History (trans. Tom Conley). New York: Columbia University Press.
  134. Deleuze, Gilles and Claire Parnet, 1987, Dialogues (trans. by Hugh Tomlinson and Barbara Habberjam). London: The Athlone Press.
  135. Deleuze, Gilles and Félix Guattari, 2004, A Thousand Plateaus: Capitalism and Schizophrenia (trans. Brian Massumi). London: Continuum.
  136. Dery, Mark, 1990, ‘The Merry Pranksters and the Art of the Hoax’. New York Times, 23 December, p. 21.
  137. Dery, Mark, 1993, ‘Culture Jamming: Hacking, Slashing and Sniping in the Empire of Signs’. Open Magazine Pamphlet Series.
  138. Design Led Futures website, School of Design, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand).
  139. Dewey, John, 1997 [1938], Experience and Education. New York: Touchstone.
  140. Dickens, Charles, 1859, A Tale of Two Cities. [Full text via Internet Archive. http://]
  141. Dinosaur Adventure Land website. (Message posted 24 August 2009, accessed 11 February 2010.)
  142. Dunagan, Jake, 2008a, ‘Boogie Rights at SXSW’. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies blog, 22 March.
  143. Dunagan, Jake, 2008b, ‘SXSW Interactive Report’. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies blog, 19 March.
  144. Duncombe, Stephen, 2007, Dream: Re-imagining Progressive Politics in an Age of Fantasy. New York: The New Press.
  145. Duncombe, Stephen, 2008, ‘Art of the Impossible: Creating Spaces to Imagine Alternative Futures’. Presentation at the Honolulu Futures Salon, 9 May. http:// [video]
  146. Duncombe, Stephen, 2010, Unpublished interview with Jake Dunagan. Institute for the Future, Palo Alto, CA, 9 March. (Copy on file with author.)
  147. Dunne, Anthony, 2006, Hertzian Tales: Electronic Products, Aesthetic Experience, and Critical Design. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  148. Dunne, Anthony et al. (eds.), 2008, Index: Design Interactions 2008. London: Royal College of Art.
  149. Dunne, Anthony (ed.) 2009, Design Interactions 2009. London: Royal College of Art.
  150. Dunne, Anthony and Fiona Raby, 2001, Design Noir: The Secret Life of Electronic Objects. Basel: Birkhäuser.
  151. Eagleman, David, 2010, ‘Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization’. Seminar About Long-Term Thinking, The Long Now Foundation, 1 April. [video]
  152. Eco, Umberto, 1986, Travels in Hyper Reality: Essays (trans. William Weaver). New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  153. The Economist, 2007, ‘The Future of Futurology’. 30 December. [subscription required]
  154. Embodied energy, Wikipedia entry.
  155. Emmerich, Roland (dir.), 2004, The Day After Tomorrow (Motion Picture). United States: 20th Century Fox.
  156. Emmerich, Roland (dir.), 2009, 2012 (Motion Picture). United States: Columbia Pictures.
  157. Epstein, Barbara, 1991, Political Protest and Cultural Revolution: Nonviolent Direct Action in the 1970s and 1980s. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  158. Epstein, Seymour, 1994. ‘Integration of the Cognitive and the Psychodynamic Unconscious’. American Psychologist, 49(8): 709-724.
  159. Estrin, Mark W., 2002, Orson Welles: Interviews. Jackson, MS: University Press of Mississippi.
  160. Fackre, Gabriel and Dorothy Fackre, 2007(?), Theology and Culture Newsletter, 47. (Internet Archive Wayback Machine, cached 11 February 2008, accessed 19 January 2010.)
  161. Farson, Richard, 2008, The Power of Design: A Force for Transforming Everything. Norcross, GA: Greenway Communications.
  162. Finucane, Melissa L. et al., 2000, ‘The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits’. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1): 1-17.
  163. Förster, Jens, Ronald S. Friedman and Nira Liberman, 2004, ʻTemporal Construal Effects on Abstract and Concrete Thinking: Consequences for Insight and Creative Cognitionʼ. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87(2): 177–189.
  164. Foucault, Michel, 1973, The Birth of the Clinic: An Archaeology of Medical Perception (trans. A. M. Sheridan). New York: Pantheon Books.
  165. Foucault, Michel, 1977, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (trans. Alan Sheridan). New York: Pantheon Books.
  166. Foucault, Michel, 1978, The History of Sexuality, Volume 1: An Introduction (trans. Robert Hurley). New York: Pantheon Books.
  167. Freitas, Ryan, 2006, ‘Making the future tangible’. Second Verse blog, 19 April.
  168. Fuller, Richard Buckminster and E.J. Applewhite, 1975, Synergetics: Explorations in the Geometry of Thinking. New York: Macmillan. [Full text at]
  169. Future Sea Level, San Francisco, Project website.
  170. Gaddis, John Lewis, 2002, The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past. New York: Oxford University Press.
  171. Gane, Nicholas, 2005, ‘Radical Post-humanism: Friedrich Kittler and the Primacy of Technology’. Theory, Culture & Society, 22(3): 25–41.
  172. Garreau, Joel, 2006, Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies — And What It Means To Be Human. New York, Broadway Books.
  173. Garrett, Jesse James, 2002, The Elements of User Experience: User-Centered Design for the Web. Berkeley, CA: New Riders / AIGA.
  174. Garrett, Jesse James, 2009, ‘The State of User Experience’. Closing keynote presentation at UX Week, San Francisco, 18 September. [video]
  175. Garrett, Martha J., 1999, Health Futures: A Handbook for Health Professionals. Geneva: World Health Organization.
  176. Gilbert, Daniel, 2006a, ‘If Only Gay Sex Caused Global Warming’. Los Angeles Times, 2 July. [Reproduced at Stumbling on Happiness blog, Random House.]
  177. Gilbert, Daniel, 2006b, Stumbling on Happiness. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
  178. Gilbert, Daniel and Randy Buckner, 2007, ‘Time Travel in the Brain’. Time, 19
  179. January. [Reproduced at Stumbling on Happiness blog, Random House.]
  180. Ginzburg, Carlo, 1993, ‘Microhistory: Two or Three Things That I Know about It’ (trans. John Tedeschi & Anne C. Tedeschi). Critical Inquiry, 20(1): 10-35.
  181. Gleick, James, 1999, Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything. New York: Pantheon Books.
  182. GBN, 2003, Looking Forward to Learn: Future Scenarios for Testing Different Approaches to Managing Used Nuclear Fuel in Canada. Report submitted by Global Business Network to the Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Canada, November.
  183. Godet, Michel and Fabrice Roubelat, 1996, ‘Creating the Future: The Use and Misuse of Scenarios’. Long Range Planning, 29(2): 164-171.
  184. The Good Guide website.
  185. Google Goggles website.
  186. Google Goggles, Wikipedia entry.
  187. Foucault, Michel, 1980, Power / Knowledge: Selected Interviews and Other Writings 1972-1977 (ed. Colin Gordon; trans. Colin Gordon et al.). New York: Pantheon Books.
  188. Graeber, David, 2004, Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology. Chicago: Prickly Paradigm Press.
  189. Graefe, Andreas, Stefan Luckner and Christof Weinhardt, 2010, ‘Prediction markets for foresight’. Futures, 42(4): 394-404.
  190. Green, Kesten C., J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe, 2007, ‘Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared’. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 8: 17-20 (Fall). [More detailed version available at]
  191. Gregory, Erika, n.d., ‘Communicating Scenarios: Setting the Stage for Conversation’. In: Erika Gregory, Gerald Harris, and Jay Ogilvy, n.d., ‘After the Scenarios,Then What? Strategic Conversation, Early Indicators, and the Art of Communication Scenarios’, Presearch: Provoking Strategic Conversation, 2(1), 15-26.
  192. Gregory, W. Larry and Anne Duran, 2001, ‘Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts’. In: J. Scott Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Hingham, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 519-540.
  193. Griffith, Lesa, 2007, ‘Sunny (or spooky) greetings from your future!’, Honolulu Advertiser, 27 May.
  194. Grosz, Elizabeth (ed.), 1999, Becomings: Explorations in Time, Memory, and Futures. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
  195. Grusin, Richard, 2004, ‘Premediation’. Criticism, 46(1): 17-39.
  196. Guba, Egon G. and Yvonna S. Lincoln, 2005, ‘Paradigmatic Controversies, Contradictions, and Emerging Confluences’. In: Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 191-215.
  197. Guggenheim, Davis (dir.), 2006, An Inconvenient Truth (Documentary). United States: Lawrence Bender Productions.
  198. Hager, Steven, 2005, The Octopus Conspiracy and Other Vignettes of the Counterculture. Walterville OR: TrineDay.
  199. Hancock, Trevor and Clement Bezold, 1994, ‘Possible futures, preferable futures’. Healthcare Forum Journal, 37(2), 23-29.
  200. Hanisch, Carol, 1969, ‘The Personal is Political’. In: Shulamith Firestone (ed.), 1970, Notes from the Second Year: Women’s Liberation: Major Writings of the Radical Feminists. New York: Radical Feminism. [Available via]
  201. Haraway, Donna J., 1994, ‘A Game of Cat’s Cradle: Science Studies, Feminist Theory, Cultural Studies’. Configurations, 2.1, 59-71.
  202. Harris, Sam, 2004, The End of Faith. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
  203. Hawaii State Legislature, 2008, Hawaii 2050 Sustainability Plan, January.
  204. Hawken, Paul, 2005 [1993], The Ecology of Commerce: A Declaration of Sustainability. New York: Collins Business.
  205. Hawken, Paul, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, 2005 [2000], Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution (revised ed.). London: Earthscan.
  206. Hawking, Stephen W., 1988, A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes. New York: Bantam Books.
  207. Hayles, N. Katherine, 2001, ‘Desiring Agency: Limiting Metaphors and Enabling Constraints in Dawkins and Deleuze/Guattari’. SubStance, # 94/95, 144-159.
  208. Hayward, Peter C., 2005, From Individual to Social Foresight. Unpublished doctoral thesis, Australian Graduate School of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia.
  209. Henchey, Norman, 1978, ‘Making Sense of Future Studies’. Alternatives, 7(2): 24-29.
  210. Higgs, Robert, 2003, ‘On Crackpot Realism: An Homage to C. Wright Mills’. The Independent Institute, 18 February.
  211. Highmore, Ben, 2006, Michel de Certeau: Analysing Culture. London: Continuum.
  212. HighWaterLine, New York City, Project website.
  213. Hillcoat, John (dir.), 2009, The Road (Motion Picture). United States: Dimension Films.
  214. Home, Stewart (ed.), 1996, What Is Situationism? A Reader. Edinburgh: AK Press.
  215. Home, Stewart (ed.), 1997, Mind Invaders: A Reader in Psychic Warfare, Cultural Sabotage and Semiotic Terrorism. London: Serpent’s Tail.
  216. Hughes, James, 2004, Citizen Cyborg: Why Democratic Societies Must Respond to the Redesigned Human of the Future. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
  217. Hunt, Lynn (ed.), 1989, The New Cultural History, Berkeley: University of California Press.
  218. Hurley, Karen, 2009, Daring to Envision Ecologically Sound and Socially Just Futures: An Interdisciplinary Exploration of Contemporary Film. Unpublished doctoral dissertation in Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Victoria, Canada.
  219. Hutchins, Edwin, 1995, Cognition in the Wild. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  220. Huxley, Aldous, 1932, Brave New World. London: Chatto and Windus.
  221. Ignatieff, Michael, 2001, Virtual War: Kosovo and Beyond. New York: Picador.
  222. Inayatullah, Sohail, 1998, ‘Causal Layered Analysis: Poststructuralism as Method’. Futures, 30(8): 815-829.
  223. Inayatullah, Sohail, 2004, The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press.
  224. Inayatullah, Sohail, 2008, ‘Six Pillars: Futures Thinking for Transforming’. Foresight, 10(1): 4-21.
  225. Interrogative Design Group website, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
  226. 343Iowa Electronic Health Markets website.
  227. IPCC, 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers, A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Full SRES Report available via]
  228. IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  229. James, P.D., 1992, The Children of Men. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
  230. Jensen, Rolf, 1999, The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business. New York: McGraw-Hill.
  231. Joerges, Bernward, 1999, ‘Do Politics Have Artefacts?’. Social Studies of Science, 29(3): 411-431.
  232. Joey Skaggs personal website, Retrospective section.
  233. Johnson, Steven, 2005, Everything Bad is Good for You: How Today’s Popular Culture is Actually Making Us Smarter. New York: Riverhead / Penguin.
  234. Jones, Christopher B., 1992, ‘The Manoa School of Futures Studies’. Futures Research Quarterly, 8(4): 19-25 (Winter).
  235. Jones, Matt, 2009, ‘Stuart Candy on Ambient Futures at Long Now London’. Magical Nihilism blog, 16 March.
  236. Joy, Bill, 2000, ‘Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us’. Wired, 8.04, April.
  237. Judge, Mike (dir.), 2007, Idiocracy (Motion Picture). United States: 20th Century Fox.
  238. Jungk, Robert and Norbert Müllert, 1987, Future Workshops: How to Create Desirable Futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions.
  239. Jungk, Robert, 1958, Brighter than a Thousand Suns: The Story of the Men Who Made the Bomb (trans. James Cleugh). New York: Harcourt, Brace & World.
  240. Kahn, Herman and Anthony J. Weiner, 1967, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. New York: The Macmillan Company.
  241. Kaplan, Robert D., 2000, The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War. New York: Vintage Books.
  242. Kelley, Tom, with Jonathan Littman, 2001, The Art of Innovation. New York: Currency Doubleday.
  243. Kelly, Kevin, 1995, ‘Gossip Is Philosophy’, Interview with Brian Eno. Wired, 3.05, May.
  244. Kim, Leland, 2008, ‘Demonstration Held Over Changing Global Climate’. KHNL News, Honolulu, 31 January.
  245. King, David Lee, 2008, Designing the Digital Experience: How to Use Experience Design Tools and Techniques to Build Websites Customers Love. Medford, NJ: Information Today.
  246. Kittler, Friedrich A., 1990, Discourse Networks 1800/1900 (trans. Michael Metteer with Chris Cullens). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
  247. Kittler, Friedrich A., 1999, Gramophone, Film, Typewriter (trans. Geoffrey Winthrop-Young and Michael Wutz). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
  248. Knabb, Ken (ed.), 2006, Situationist International Anthology (revised ed.). Berkeley, CA: Bureau of Public Secrets. [Also available online]
  249. Knabb, Richard D., Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown, 2005, ‘Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Katrina 23-30 August 2005’. National Hurricane Center, 20 December (updated 10 August 2006).
  250. Kosko, Bart, 1993, Fuzzy Thinking: The New Science of Fuzzy Logic. New York: Hyperion.
  251. Kroeger, Michael, 2008, Paul Rand: Conversations with Students. New York: Princeton Architectural Press.
  252. Kubrick, Stanley (dir.), 1964, Dr Strangelove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (Motion Picture). United Kingdom: Columbia Pictures.
  253. Kubrick, Stanley (dir.), 1968, 2001: A Space Odyssey (Motion Picture). United Kingdom / United States: Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.
  254. Kunstler, James Howard, 2006, The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century. New York: Grove Press.
  255. Kurzweil, Ray, 2005, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, New York: Viking.
  256. Lago, Colin, 2006, Race, Culture, and Counselling: The Ongoing Challenge (2nd ed.). Maidenhead, Berkshire: Open University Press.
  257. Lakoff, George, 2009, The Political Mind: A Cognitive Scientist’s Guide to Your Brain and Its Politics. New York: Penguin.
  258. Lambert, Steve, 2009, ‘Best Case Scenario’. Fillip, 9 (Winter).
  259. Lambert, Steve, 2010, ‘Utopia’. Presentation at Transmediale.10 Conference ‘Futurity Now!’, Berlin, 7 February. [video]
  260. Lambert, Steve, n.d., ‘Emma Goldman Institute for Anarchist Studies: June 2005’, Steve Lambert personal website.
  261. Lampedusa, Giuseppe Tomasi di, 1960, The Leopard (trans. Archibald Colquhoun). New York: Pantheon Books / Random House.
  262. Lanier, Jaron, 2010, You Are Not a Gadget: A Manifesto. New York: Borzoi Books / Alfred A. Knopf.
  263. Lanier, Jaron, n.d., Interview at
  264. Lasn, Kalle, 2000, Culture Jam. New York: Quill.
  265. Latour, Bruno, 1987, Science in Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  266. Latour, Bruno, 2005, ‘From Realpolitik to Dingpolitik or How to Make Things Public’. In: Bruno Latour and Peter Weibel (eds.), Making Things Public: Atmospheres of Democracy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 4-31.
  267. Le Cuyer, A. Grey, 1996, ‘L.A. Speak: Disneyland Employees’. Los Angeles Times Magazine, 10 November, 8.
  268. Lee, Laura, 2000, Bad Predictions. Rochester, MI: Elsewhere Press.
  269. Lee, Spike (dir.), 2006, When the Levees Broke: A Requiem in Four Acts (Documentary Series). United States: 40 Acres & A Mule Filmworks / Home Box Office (HBO).
  270. Lewis, Michael, 2010, ‘Greed Never Left’. Vanity Fair, no. 596, 126-129 (April).
  271. lightblueline, Santa Barbara CA, Project website.
  272. Lindqvist, Sven, 1992, Exterminate All The Brutes. London: Granta Books.
  273. Lindqvist, Sven, 2001, A History of Bombing (trans. Linda Rugg). London: Granta Books.
  274. Linkins, Jason, 2008, ‘New York Times Pranksters on How They Pulled Off Hoax’. The Huffington Post, 19 November.
  275. Live|work, 2005(?), ‘Orange: Tangible evidence’ (Case study). (Internet Archive Wayback Machine, cached 20 March 2005, accessed 29 April 2010.)
  276. Live|work, 2008, ‘Evidence’,
  277. Loewenstein, George F., et al., 2001, ‘Risk as feelings’. Psychological Bulletin, 127(2): 267-286.
  278. The Long Now Foundation home page.
  279. Lubertozzi, Alex and Brian Holmsten, 2005, The War of the Worlds: Mars’ Invasion of Earth, Inciting Panic and Inspiring Terror from H.G. Wells to Orson Wells and Beyond. Naperville, IL: Sourcebooks.
  280. Lum, Richard Kaipo, 2009, ‘Towards a Framework for Political Design’. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Dept of Political Science, University of Hawaii at Manoa, defended 8 July.
  281. Magnusson, Sigurdur Gylfi, 2006, ‘What Is Microhistory?’. History News Network, George Mason University, 8 May.
  282. Manaugh, Geoff, 2009, ‘Watermarks’. BLDGBLOG, 7 February.
  283. Margolin, Victor, 2007, ‘Design, the Future and the Human Spirit’. Design Issues, 23(3), 4-15.
  284. Marton, Ference, 1986, ‘Phenomenography — A Research Approach to Investigating Different Understandings of Reality’. Journal of Thought, 21(3): 23-49.
  285. Maruyama, Magoroh and James A. Dator (eds.), 1971, Human Futuristics. Honolulu: Social Science Research Institute, University of Hawaii.
  286. Marx, Karl, 1859, Critique of Political Economy. [Full text at]
  287. Massive Change website.
  288. Mau, Bruce and the Institute without Boundaries, 2004, Massive Change. New York: Phaidon Press.
  289. Mazria, Edward, 2008, Stephen and Marylyn Pauley Seminar in Sustainability, School of Architecture, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 8 October.
  290. McCarthy, Cormac, 2006, The Road. New York: Vintage Books.
  291. McDonough, William and Michael Braungart, 2002, Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things. New York: North Point Press.
  292. McDonough, William, 2001, ‘Green Design’, Interview by Robyn Williams. The Science Show, ABC Radio (Australia), 5 May.
  293. McGonigal, Jane, 2009, ‘Superstruct: Welcome back, Super-Empowered Hopeful Individuals!’. Institute for the Future blog, 22 April.
  294. McHale, John, 1970, Typological Survey of Futures Research in the U.S. Contract No. HSM-42-69-47, National Institute of Mental Health.
  295. McKenna, Terence, 1991, The Archaic Revival. San Francisco: HarperSanFrancisco.
  296. McKibben, Bill, 2006, ‘Year One of the Next Earth’. In: Chris Jordan, In Katrina’s Wake: Portraits of Loss from an Unnatural Disaster. New York: Pamphlet Architecture / Princeton Architectural Press, 9-15.
  297. McLuhan, Marshall and Quentin Fiore with Jerome Agel, 2001 [1967], The Medium is the Massage: An Inventory of Effects. Corte Madera CA: Gingko Press.
  298. McLuhan, Marshall, and Quentin Fiore with Jerome Agel, 1968, The Medium is the Massage: An Inventory of Effects (Long playing record, produced by John Simon). United States: Columbia Records. [Audio version of McLuhan and Fiore 2001 (1967). Available in full via]
  299. Meadows, Donella H. et al., 1972, The Limits to Growth (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: Potomac Associates.
  300. Meadows, Donella, 1997, ‘Places to Intervene in a System’, Whole Earth, 91: 78-84 (Winter).
  301. Menand, Louis (ed.), 1997, Pragmatism: A Reader. New York: Vintage.
  302. Merholz, Peter, 2006, ‘A Conversation with Michael Bierut’. Adaptive Path blog, 7 August.
  303. Merholz, Peter, 2008, ‘Designing Futures’. Adaptive Path blog, 5 May
  304. Merholz, Peter et al., 2008, Subject to Change: Creating Great Products and Services for an Uncertain World. Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly.
  305. Michael Rakowitz personal website, paraSITE project.
  306. Michael Rakowitz Faculty Biography, Department of Art Theory and Practice, Northwestern University (Illinois).
  307. Microsoft Office Labs: Future of personal health concept, 2008, YouTube, 10 March.
  308. Milgram, Stanley, 1973, ‘The Perils of Obedience’, Harper’s, 247: 62-66; 75-77 (December). [subscription required]
  309. Miller, George (dir.), 1979, Mad Max (Motion Picture). Australia: Kennedy Miller Productions.
  310. Miller, Riel, 2007, ‘Futures literacy: A Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method’. Futures, 39(4): 341-362.
  311. Moggridge, Bill, 2007, Designing Interactions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  312. Moore, Michael (dir.), 1989, Roger & Me (Documentary). United States: Dog Eat Dog Films / Warner Brothers.
  313. More, Thomas, 2001 [1516], Utopia (trans. Clarence H. Miller). New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  314. Morgan, Dennis, 2008, ‘American culture, corporate culture, and the transformation of business practice: the role of social foresight in a restorative economy’. Foresight, 10(4): 31-42.
  315. Morris, Glenn, 1995, ‘For the Next Seven Generations: Indigenous Americans and Communalism’, Fellowship for Intentional Community, Communities Directory 1995.
  316. Morville, Peter and Jeffery Callender, 2010, Search Patterns: Design for Discovery. Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly Media.
  317. Murch, Walter, 2001, In the Blink of an Eye: A Perspective on Film Editing (2nd ed.). Los Angeles: Silman-James Press.
  318. Nandy, Ashis, 1996, ‘Bearing Witness to the Future’. Futures, 28(6-7): 636-639.
  319. Nandy, Ashis, 2004a, ‘Cultural Frames for Social Transformation: A Credo’. In: Ashis Nandy, Bonfire of Creeds: The Essential Ashis Nandy. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 17-29.
  320. Nandy, Ashis, 2004b, ‘Towards a Third World Utopia’. In: Ashis Nandy, Bonfire of Creeds: The Essential Ashis Nandy. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 440-469.
  321. NationMaster website: World Statistics, Country Comparisons.
  322. New York Times, 1938, ‘Radio Listeners in Panic, Taking War Drama as Fact’. 31 October. Full text at
  323. New York Times, 1991, ‘Culture Jammers; Distinguished Antecedents’. Letter to the Editor, 13 January.
  324. Niccol, Andrew (dir.), 1997, Gattaca (Motion Picture). United States: Columbia Pictures.
  325. Nixon, Elisabeth Ann, 2006, Playing Devil’s Advocate on the Path to Heaven: Evangelical Hell Houses and the Play of Politics, Fear, and Faith. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, Anthropology Graduate Studies Program.
  326. Nokia Morph Concept (short), 2008, YouTube, 25 February.
  327. Norwegian Nobel Committee, 2007, Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Press Release, 12 October.
  328. Nova, Nicolas, 2008, ‘Crafting stuff to engage people with the future’. Pasta&Vinegar blog, LiftLab, 25 August.
  329. Null, Christopher, 2006, ‘5 hot products for the future’. Business 2.0 /, 9 June.
  330. Nussbaum, Shiri, Nira Liberman and Yaacov Trope, 2006, ‘Predicting the Near and Distant Future’. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 135(2): 152-161.
  331. Official Site of Raymond Loewy, 2003(?), Biography.
  332. Ogilvy, James A., 2002, Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow. New York: Oxford University Press.
  333. Okrent, Daniel, 2009, ‘Detroit: The Death — and Possible Life — of a Great City’.
  334. Time, 24 September.,8599,1925796,00.html
  335. Ollman, Dan, Sarah Price and Chris Smith (dir.), 2003, The Yes Men (Documentary). United States: Yes Men Films / United Artists.
  336. Open the Future blog.
  337. Orwell, George, 1949, Nineteen Eighty-Four: A Novel. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co.
  338. Paleofuture website.
  339. Pang, Alex Soojung-Kim, 2009a, ‘Futures 2.0: Rethinking the Discipline’. Relevant History blog, (Version 2.4, revised 9 November 2009, accessed 12 February 2010).
  340. Pang, Alex Soojung-Kim, 2009, ‘Thoughts on design + futures’. Relevant History blog, 4 January.
  341. Peake, Stephen, 2008, ‘Thinking About Climate Change’. Seminar hosted by idenk, Cambridge, UK, 8 July. [Slide deck available as pdf document.]
  342. Penn, Mark with E. Kinney Zalesne, 2007, Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes. New York: Hachette Book Group.
  343. Pinchbeck, Daniel, 2007, 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl. New York: Jeremy P. Tarcher / Penguin.
  344. Pine II, B. Joseph and James H. Gilmore, 1999, The Experience Economy: Work is Theatre and Every Business a Stage. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
  345. Polak, Fred L., 1961, The Image of the Future: Enlightening the Past, Orientating the Present, Forecasting the Future (2 vols., trans. Elise Boulding). Leyden: A.W. Sythoff.
  346. Polak, Fred, 1973, The Image of the Future (trans. and abridged by Elise Boulding). Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific Publishing.
  347. Pombo, Jamy, 2007, ‘TV Network Takes Responsibility For ‘Hoax Devices’, WCVB-TV /, 31 January. http://
  348. Radford, Michael (dir.), 1984, Nineteen Eighty-Four (Motion Picture). United Kingdom: Umbrella-Rosenblum Films / Virgin.
  349. Raford, Noah, 2010, ‘Large-Scale Participatory Futures Systems: Harnessing Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning’. Presentation given at MIT, 9 April.
  350. Ramos, Jose, 2006, ‘Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight’. Futures, 38(9): 1119-1124.
  351. Rancière, Jacques, 2003, ‘The Thinking of Dissensus: Politics and Aesthetics’. Paper presented at the conference ‘Fidelity to the Disagreement: Jacques Rancière and the Political’, Political Studies Association of the UK, Goldsmiths College, London, 16-17 September. 20060218121456/ (Internet Archive Wayback Machine, cached 18 February 2006, accessed 1 May 2010.)
  352. Rancière, Jacques, 2004, The Politics of Aesthetics: The Distribution of the Sensible (trans. Gabriel Rockhill). London: Continuum.
  353. Ratliff, George (dir.), 2001, Hell House (Documentary). United States: GreenHouse Pictures.
  354. Raymond, Eric, 2001, The Cathedral and the Bazaar: Musings on Linux and Open Source by an Accidental Revolutionary (revised ed.). Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly.
  355. RCA 2007, Design Interactions 2007. London: Royal College of Art.
  356. RCA, 2009, Tribal Futures Project website. Design Interactions Department, Royal College of Art, London.
  357. Reason, Peter and Hilary Bradbury, 2001, ‘Inquiry and Participation in Search of a World Worthy of Human Aspiration’. In: P. Reason and H. Bradbury (eds.), 2001, Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice. London: Sage, 1-14.
  358. Reed, John, 2009, ‘The travails of Detroit’. Financial Times (UK), 6 March.
  359. Reese, Laura A., 2006, ‘Economic Versus Natural Disasters: If Detroit Had a Hurricane…’ Economic Development Quarterly, 20(3): 219-233.
  360. Rejeski, David and Robert L. Olson, 2006, ‘Has futurism failed?’. Wilson Quarterly, 30(1): 14-21.
  361. Reynolds, Kevin (dir.), 1995, Waterworld (Motion Picture). United States: Universal Pictures.
  362. Richard Hammond presents Bloody Omaha (The Graphics), 2007, YouTube, 20 December.
  363. Ringland, Gill, 1998, Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
  364. Robinson, J., 1982, ‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis’. Energy Policy, 10(4): 337–344.
  365. Robinson, J., 2003, ‘Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning’. Futures, 35(8): 839-856.
  366. Rohter, Ira, 1992, A Green Hawaiʻi: Sourcebook for Development Alternatives. Honolulu: Na Kane O Ka Malo Press. [Introduction by Jim Dator available at]
  367. Royal Philips Electronics (Netherlands) website, ‘What are design probes?’.
  368. Ruby’s Bequest website.
  369. Rushkoff, Douglas, 1994, Media Virus: Hidden Agendas in Popular Culture. New York: Ballantine Books.
  370. Said, Edward, 1984, ‘The Mind of Winter: Reflections on Life in Exile’. Harper’s, 269: 49-55 (September).
  371. Salam, Reihan, 2006, ‘The Future of Futurism’. Slate, 29 June.
  372. Samuelson, Robert, 2008, ‘How to Bail Out GM’. Washington Post, 17 November. ST2008111602000.html.
  373. Santa Cruz Independent Media Center, 2005, ‘Santa Cruz Billboard Shows Remarkable Candor’. Santa Cruz Indymedia, 7 October.
  374. Sardar, Ziauddin, 1993, ‘Colonizing the Future: The “Other” Dimension of Futures Studies’. Futures, 25(2): 179-187.
  375. Sardar, Ziauddin, 1999a, ‘Dissenting futures and dissent in the future’. Futures, 31(2): 139-146.
  376. Sardar, Ziauddin (ed.), 1999b, Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies. Westport, CT: Praeger.
  377. Sardar, Ziauddin, 2010, ‘The Namesake: Futures; Futures Studies; Futurology; Futuristic; Foresight — What’s in a Name?’. Futures, 42(3): 177-184.
  378. Schechner, Richard, 2002, Performance Studies: An Introduction (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.
  379. Schrage, Michael, 2000, Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
  380. Schultz, Wendy, 2005, ‘The Intersection Between Arts, Design, Innovation, Turbulence and Scenario Building’. Global Futurists Podcast / Lecture Series convened by Natasha Vita-More. [audio]
  381. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.a, ‘Scenario Building: An Introduction to the Tools’. Infinite Futures.
  382. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.b, ‘Scenario Building: The Harman Fan’. Infinite Futures.
  383. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.c, ‘Scenario Building: The Manoa Approach’. Infinite Futures.
  384. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.d, ‘Scenario Building: The Schwartz/GBN Approach’. Infinite Futures.
  385. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.e, ‘Scenario Building: The Sociovision Approach’. Infinite Futures.
  386. Schultz, Wendy, n.d.f, ‘Scenario Incasting: Exploring Possible Alternative Futures’. Infinite Futures.
  387. Schwartz, Peter, 1991, The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday.
  388. Schwartz, Peter, Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt, 2000, The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity. Cambridge, MA: Perseus.
  389. Shaw, William, 2009, ‘Come Hell or High Water: Visualising Climate’. RSA Arts and Ecology blog, Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce, 5 February.
  390. Shedroff, Nathan and Chris Noessel, Forthcoming 2010, Make It So: Interaction Design Lessons from Science Fiction Interfaces.
  391. Shedroff, Nathan, 2001, Experience Design 1. Indianapolis: New Riders.
  392. Sheetz, Chuck (dir.), 2007, The Simpsons, Season 19, Episode 5, ‘Treehouse of Horror XVIII’ (Television Program). United States: Gracie Films / 20th Century Fox.
  393. Silver, Curtis, 2009, ‘Neurocinema Aims to Change the Way Movies are Made’. GeekDad blog,, 23 September.
  394. Simon, Julian Lincoln, 1996, The Ultimate Resource 2 (revised ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  395. Slater, Mel et al., 2006, ‘A Virtual Reprise of the Stanley Milgram Obedience Experiments’, PLoS ONE, 1(1): e39. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000039.
  396. Slaughter, Rick, 1991, ‘The Future Has a Long Fuse’, Interview with Jim Dator. 21C, October.
  397. Slaughter, Richard A., 1996a, ‘Futures Studies: From Individual to Social Capacity’. Futures, 28(8): 751-762. [Republished in Richard A. Slaughter, 1999, Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View. St Leonards, NSW: Prospect, 305-318; also Richard A. Slaughter, 2004, Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight. London: RoutledgeFalmer, Chapter 12, 171-185.]
  398. Slaughter, Richard A. (ed.), 1996b, The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (3 vols). Hawthorn, Victoria: DDM Media Group.
  399. Slaughter, Richard A.,1998, ‘Futures Beyond Dystopia’ Futures, 30(10): 993–1002.
  400. Slaughter, Richard A., 1999, ‘An Outline of Critical Futures Studies’. In: Richard A. Slaughter, 1999, Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View, St Leonards, NSW: Prospect, pp. 203-230. [First published as Richard A. Slaughter, 1994, ‘An Outline of Critical Futures Studies: Toward a Critical Futurism,’ World Future Society Bulletin, 18(4): 19-25; 18(5): 11-21.]
  401. Slaughter, Richard A., 2002a, ‘Beyond the Mundane: Reconciling Breadth and Depth in Futures Enquiry’. Futures, 34(6): 493-507.
  402. Slaughter, Richard A., 2002b, ‘Future Shock Re-Assessed’, Futures Bulletin (The Newsletter of the World Futures Studies Federation), 27(2): 4-7. [Also available at,]
  403. Slaughter, Richard A., 2006, Pathways and Impediments to Social Foresight, Strategic Foresight Program Monograph Series, No. 10, Melbourne: Swinburne University of Technology.
  404. Slaughter, Richard and Chris Riedy, 2009, Guest editorial, Foresight, 11(5).
  405. Sloman, Steven A., 1996, ‘The Empirical Case for Two Systems of Reasoning’. Psychological Bulletin, 119(1): 3-22.
  406. Solnit, Rebecca, 2005, ‘The uses of disaster: Notes on bad weather and good government’. Harper’s, 311: 31-37 (October).
  407. Sorrel, Charlie, 2009, ‘Art Project Forecasts Floods of Doom’. Gadget Lab blog,, 13 February.
  408. Spielberg, Steven (dir.), 2002, Minority Report (Motion Picture). United States: 20th Century Fox / Dreamworks SKG.
  409. Spoto, Donald, 1984, The Dark Side of the Genius: The Life of Alfred Hitchcock, New York: Ballantine.
  410. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2001 (rev. 2009) ‘Charles Sanders Peirce’.
  411. Sterling, Bruce, 2003, Interview by Jennifer Leonard, Massive Change Radio, December. [Audio on file with author.]
  412. Sterling, Bruce, 2005, Shaping Things. Cambridge, MA: Mediawork / MIT Press.
  413. Sterling, Bruce, 2006a, ‘Design and Futurism’. Graduate Studies Lecture Series, California College of the Arts, 26 September. [video]
  414. Sterling, Bruce, 2006b, ‘The State of the World’. Closing keynote presentation at South by Southwest Interactive, Austin, TX, 14 March. [Audio on file with author. Unofficial transcript available via]
  415. Sterling, Bruce, 2006c, Visionary in Residence: Stories. New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press.
  416. Sterling, Bruce, 2009, ‘Design Fiction’. interactions, XVI.3 (May/June).
  417. Stone, Alluquère Rosanne, 1996, The War of Desire and Technology at the Close of the Mechanical Age. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  418. Stork, David G. (ed.), 1997, HAL’s Legacy: 2001’s Computer as Dream and Reality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  419. Stross, Charles, 2005, Accelerando. New York: Ace. [Available online at]
  420. Sturgeon’s Law, Wikipedia entry.’s_Law
  421. Superstruct website.
  422. Surowiecki, James, 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations. New York: Doubleday.
  423. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.
  424. Tarantino, Quentin (dir.), 1992, Reservoir Dogs (Motion Picture). United States: Live Entertainment / Dog Eat Dog Productions. [10th Anniversary DVD issued 2002 by Live / Artisan contains director’s feature commentary and interview with the director.]
  425. Taylor, Charles W., 1993, Alternative World Scenarios for A New Order of Nations (revised ed.). Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute.
  426. Taylor, Charles W., 1994, ‘Creating Strategic Visions’. In: C. Richard Cothern and N. Phillip Ross (eds.), 1994, Environmental Statistics, Assessment, and Forecasting. Boca Raton, FL: Lewis Publishers / CRC Press, 259-266.
  427. Temple, Julien (dir.), 2010, Requiem for Detroit? (Documentary). United Kingdom: British Broadcasting Corporation.
  428. Tester, Jason, 2007, ‘The Case for Human-Future Interaction’. Future Now blog, Institute for the Future, 16 February.
  429. Tetlock, Philip E., 2005, Expert political judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  430. Thackara, John, 2005, ‘How Design Evolves’. Doors of Perception blog, 21 May.
  431. Thaler, Richard H. and Cass R. Sunstein, 2008, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  432. Tharp, Bruce M. and Stephanie M. Tharp, 2009, ‘The 4 Fields of Industrial Design’. Core77, 5 January.
  433. Thompson, Nato and Gregory Sholette (eds.), 2004, The Interventionists: Users’6 Manual for the Creative Disruption of Everyday Life. North Adams, MA: MASS MoCA.
  434. Tickner, J. Ann, 1992, Gender in International Relations: Feminist Perspectives on Achieving Global Security. New York: Columbia University Press.
  435. Toffler, Alvin, 1965, ‘The future as a way of life’. In: Glen Gaviglio and David E. Raye (eds.), 1971, Society As It Is: A Reader. New York: Macmillan, pp. 450-461. [Originally published in 1965, Horizon 7(3): 108-115.]
  436. Toffler, Alvin, 1970, Future Shock. New York: Random House.
  437. Traces of Hope website.
  438. Trocchi, Alexander, 1963, ‘A Revolutionary Proposal: Invisible Insurrection of a Million Minds’. Internationale Situationniste, 8: 1-12 (January). [Republished in: Andrew Murray Scott (ed.), 1991, Invisible Insurrection of a Million Minds: A Trocchi Reader. Edinburgh: Polygon, 177-191. Available at]
  439. Trope, Yaacov and Nira Liberman, 2003, ‘Temporal Construal’. Psychological Review, 110(3): 403-421.
  440. Tufte, Edward R., 2006, Beautiful Evidence. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.
  441. Tufte, Edward, 2007, ‘Presenting Data and Information’ Seminar, Grand Hyatt San Francisco, 17 July.
  442. Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman, 1973, ‘Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability’. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2): 207-232. [Reprinted in: Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky (eds.), 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 163-178.]
  443. Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman, 1983, ‘Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment’. Psychological Review, 90(4): 293-315.
  444. US House of Representatives, 2006, A Failure of Initiative, Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina. US Government Printing Office, 15 February.
  445. Vaihinger, Hans, 1968 [1924], The Philosophy of ‘As If’ (trans. C.K. Ogden). New York: Barnes & Noble.
  446. van der Heijden, Kees et al., 2002, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
  447. van der Heijden, Kees, 2004, ‘Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning?’ Futures, 36(2): 145-159.
  448. van der Heijden, Kees, 2005, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
  449. van der Helm, Ruud, 2005, ‘The future according to Frederik Lodewijk Polak: Finding the Roots of Contemporary Futures Studies’. Futures, 37(6): 505-519.
  450. Verhoeven, Paul (dir.), 1987, RoboCop (Motion Picture). United States: Orion Pictures.
  451. Virilio, Paul, 1999, Politics of the Very Worst: An interview by Philippe Petit (trans. Michael Cavaliere, ed. Sylvère Lotringer). New York: Semiotext(e).
  452. Visvanathan, Shiv, 1991, ‘Mrs Bruntland’s* Disenchanted Cosmos’. Alternatives, 16(3): 377-384. [* sic. Note the typographical error in this title as originally published, which may interfere with efforts to locate the article. The correct spelling, as it appears throughout the text, is Brundtland.]
  453. Vlasic, Bill and Nick Bunkley, 2008, ‘Hazardous Conditions for the Auto Industry’. New York Times, 1 October.
  454. Voltaire, Francois, 2004 [1759], Candide. Whitefish, MT: Kessinger Publishing.
  455. Vonnegut, Kurt, 1965, Wampeters, Foma, & Granfalloons (Opinions). New York: Delta.
  456. Vonnegut, Kurt, 1976, Slapstick: or, Lonesome no more! New York: Delacorte Press / Seymour Lawrence.
  457. Voros, Joseph, 2003, ‘A Generic Foresight Process Framework’. Foresight, 5(3): 10-21.
  458. Voros, Joseph, 2008, ‘Integral Futures: An Approach to Futures Inquiry’, Futures, 40(2): 190-201.
  459. Vorsino, Mary, 2007, ‘Pranksters want debate on Hawaii’s Chinatown’. Honolulu Advertiser, 15 October.
  460. Wachowski, Lana and Andy Wachowski (dir.), 1999, The Matrix (Motion Picture). United States: Silver Pictures / Village Roadshow / Warner Brothers.
  461. Wack, Pierre, 1985a, ‘Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead’. Harvard Business Review, 63(5): 73-89.
  462. Wack, Pierre, 1985b, ‘Shooting the Rapids’. Harvard Business Review, 63(6): 139-150.
  463. Wakslak, Cheryl J. et al., 2006, ‘Seeing the Forest When Entry Is Unlikely: Probability and the Mental Representation of Events’. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 135(4): 641-653.
  464. Wakslak, Cheryl J., Yaacov Trope and Nira Liberman, 2006, ‘Transcending the Now: Time as a Dimension of Psychological Distance’. In: J. Glicksohn & M. Myslobodsky (eds.), Timing the Future: A Case for Time-Cued Prospective Memory. River Edge, NJ: World Scientific Publishing, 171-189.
  465. Wark, McKenzie, 2004, A Hacker Manifesto. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  466. Watermark: Visualizing the Effects of Climate Change in Seattle, Project website.
  467. Watts, Alan, 1960, ‘The Value of Psychotic Experience’. Transcript from broadcast on KSAN radio, San Francisco.
  468. 1Weber, Elke, 2006, ‘Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming Does Not Scare Us (Yet)’. Climatic Change, 77(1-2): 103-120.
  469. Welles, Orson et al., 1938, ‘The War of the Worlds’. CBS radio drama broadcast 30 October. [Audio available via Internet Archive.]
  470. Wells, Herbert George, 2003 [1898], The War of the Worlds. New York: Bantam Dell.
  471. Welsh, Nick, 2007, ‘White Flag on Blue Line’. The Santa Barbara Independent, 23 August.
  472. Wetmore Jr., Kevin J., ‘Intelligent Design (after Julie Taymor): Opposing Darwinism in The Crystal Cathedral’s Creation: Once Upon All Time’. Journal of Religion and Theatre, 6(2).
  473. Whirlpool (UK) website, project f: Fabric Care Futures.
  474. White, Hayden, 1973, Metahistory: The Historical Imagination in Nineteenth- Century Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  475. Whitehead, Alfred North, 1967 [1925], Science and the Modern World. New York: The Free Press.
  476. William McDonough and Partners, company website, Design philosophy.
  477. Wilson, Daniel H., 2007, Where’s My Jetpack?: A Guide to the Amazing Science Fiction Future that Never Arrived. New York: Bloomsbury.
  478. Wing, Nick, 2010, ‘Murray Hill PR Firm Plans (Satirical) Run For Maryland Congressional Seat’. The Huffington Post, 28 January.
  479. Winner, Langdon, 1986, The Whale and the Reactor: A Search for Limits in an Age of High Technology. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  480. Wired magazine, ‘Found: Artifacts from the Future’, monthly back-page feature. [Collected online at]
  481. 362WNYC, 2008, ‘War of the Worlds’. Radiolab broadcast, New York, 7 March.
  482. Wodiczko, Krzysztof, 1999, Critical Vehicles: Writings, Projects, Interviews. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  483. Wolfe, Tom, 1969, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test. New York: Picador.
  484. Wong Kar Wai (dir.), 2004, 2046 (Motion Picture). China / France / Germany: Arte.
  485. World Social Forum, Wikipedia entry.
  486. World_Social_Forum ‘World Without Oil’ Alternate Reality Game, Wikipedia entry.
  487. World Without Oil website.
  488. ‘Year Zero’ Alternate Reality Game, Wikipedia entry.
  489. The Yes Men et al., 2008, New York Times Special Edition. [Also available via the Internet Archive]
  490. The Yes Men, 2004, The Yes Men: The True Story of the End of the World Trade Organization. New York: The Disinformation Company.
  491. The Yes Men, n.d.a, ‘Dow Ethics’ website.
  492. The Yes Men, n.d.b, Project page: Dow.
  493. Zajonc, R.B., 1968, ‘Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure’. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 9(2, Pt. 2): 1-27.
  494. Zeitchik, Steven, 2009, ‘Ridley Scott, DiCaprio travel to “Brave New World”’. Reuters, 6 August.
  495. Ziarek, Krzysztof, 2004, The Force of Art. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
  496. Zjawinski, Sonja, 2007, ‘Masterpieces of Disaster’. Metrophile blog,, 20 March.

Designing an Experiential Scenario: The People Who Vanished | Candy, Dunagan

Stuart Candy, Jake Franklin Dunagan; Designing an Experiential Scenario: The People Who Vanished; In Futures; 2016 (2017-02); 18 pages; ResearchGate; DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2016.05.006


As futures practice strives towards greater effectiveness, the foresight and design fields are in the process of discovering, learning from and remixing with each other. This paper offers a case study of an experiential futures/design fiction project co-created with workshop participants at the inaugural Emerge festival, an explicitly futures-themed hybrid arts and science event staged at Arizona State University in the city of Phoenix in 2012. The People Who Vanished was a live intervention, via performance and associated artifacts created for the occasion, reflecting on a possible future for the Phoenix area. The workshop’s compressed timeline prompted the authors to create for participants a basic framework for producing experiential scenarios. That framework, further elaborated here as the Experiential Futures Ladder, is offered as a conceptual model for scaffolding experiential scenarios and design fiction going forward. Some implications for the foresight field of this multi-scalar mode of thought, as well as of the experiential turn more broadly (towards design, media, games and performance) are outlined.


  • a workshop
  • Emerge, a festival
  • Arizona State University
  • Phoenix, 2012
  • a live performance
  • Experiential Futures Ladder



  1. Abbott, D. R. (2003). Centuries of decline during the Hohokam classic period at pueblo grande. Tucson: University of Arizona Press.
  2. Arizona Museum of Natural History (n.d.). The Hohokam. Retrieved from there.
  3. Arizona State University (n.d.). Herberger Institute for Design and the Arts. Retrieved from there.
  4. Bleecker, J., et al. (2010). Design fiction: props, prototypes, predicaments communicating new ideas [podcast]. Wired. . page
  5. Bleecker, J. (2009). Design Fiction: a short essay on design fact and fiction. Los Angeles: Near Future Laboratory. pdf
  6. Bosch, T. (2012). Sci-Fi writer bruce sterling explains the intriguing new concept of design fiction. . html
  7. Candy, S. (2008). Memoriam. The Sceptical Futuryst. . (blog post) html.
  8. Candy, S. (2009). The unthinkable and the unimaginable: why futures and design are getting married. The Sceptical Futuryst. . (blog post/video file) html
  9. Candy, S. (2010). The futures of everyday life. University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Political Science. . (doctoral dissertation) Scribd.
  10. Candy, S. (2013). Time Machine/Reverse Archaeology: create an experience or artifact from the future. In B. Chloe (Ed.), Seventy-two assignments: the foundation course in art and design today (pp. 28–30).Paris: PCA Press.
  11. Candy, S. (2014). Experiential futures: stepping into OCADU’s time machine? The Futurist, 48(5), 34–37.
  12. Candy, S. (2015). The thing from the future. In A. Curry (Ed.), The APF methods anthologyLondon: Association of Professional Futurists.
  13. Cascio, J. (2006). Hawaii [blog post]. Open the future. . html.
  14. Cascio, J. (2009). Hacking the earth: understanding the consequences of geoengineering. (published on
  15. City of Phoenix (n.d.). History. Retrieved from page.
  16. Dator, J. (1993). From future workshops to envisioning alternative futures. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. pdf
  17. Dator, J. (1996). Futures studies as applied knowledge. In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), New thinking for a new millennium (pp. 105–114).London: Routledge.
  18. de Jouvenel, B. (1967). The art of conjecture (trans. Nikita Lary). London: Weidenfeld and Nicholson.
  19. Debuys, W. (2011). A great aridness: climate change and the future of the american southwest. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  20. Diamond, J. (2005). Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed. New York: Viking.
  21. Dunne, A., & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative everything: design, fiction, and social dreaming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  22. Dunne, A. (2010). Design interactions show 2010: introduction. . html.
  23. Goldberg, D. A. M. (2007). Urban projections. Honolulu advertiser. . html.
  24. Griffith, L. (2007). Sunny (or spooky) greetings from your future! Honolulu Advertiser. . html.
  25. Johnson, S. (2006). The long zoom. New York times magazine. . page.
  26. Jungk, R., & Mullert, N. (1987). Future workshops: how to create desirable futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions.
  27. Kelliher, A., & Byrne, D. (2015). Design futures in action: documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences. Futures, 70, 36–47.
  28. Kubrick, S. (1968). 2001: a space odyssey. United States: Warner Bros [motion picture] (Director).
  29. Lambert, S. (n.d.). Retrieved from page.
  30. Mays, L. W., & Gorokhovich, Y. (2010). Water technology in the ancient american societies. In L. W. Mays (Ed.), Ancient water technologies (pp. 172Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
  31. Near Future Laboratory, (n.d.). Retrieved from page
  32. Nesta (2016). Speculative design: a design niche or a new tool for government innovation? . page.
  33. Parsons, T., & Charlesworth, J. (n.d.). Retrieved from page.
  34. Pescovitz, D. (2009). Coral cross: ARG about pandemic flu. Boing boing. . html.
  35. Pohflepp, S. (2009). Sasha pohflepp – the golden institute. . . (video file) vimeo.
  36. Prado, L., & Oliveira, P. (2014). Questioning the critical in speculative & critical design. . medium.
  37. Ramos, J. (2006). Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight. Futures, 38(9), 1119–1124.
  38. Reisner, M. (1987). Cadillac desert. New York: Penguin Books.
  39. Ross, A. (2011). Bird on fire: lessons from the world’s least sustainable city. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  40. Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency/Doubleday.
  41. Selin, C. (2015). Merging art and design in foresight: making sense of Emerge. Futures, 70, 24–35.
  42. Slaughter, R. A. (1996). Futures studies: from individual to social capacity. Futures, 28(8), 751–762.
  43. Steffen, W., Crutzen, P. J., & McNeill, J. (2007). The anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great force of nature? Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment, 36(8), 614–621.
  44. Sterling, B. (2009). Design fiction. IX interactions. . . (XVI.3 (May/June)) ACM.
  45. Sterling B. (2011). Retrieved from html.
  46. Sterling, B. (2013). Patently untrue: fleshy defibrillators and synchronised baseball are changing the future. . page.
  47. Tainter, J. A. (1988). The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge: Cambridge: University Press.
  48. Thackara, J. (2013). Republic of salivation (Michael Burton and Michiko Nitta). . page.
  49. Tonkinwise, C. (2015). Just design: being dogmatic about defining speculative critical design future fiction. . medium.
  50. Turney, O. A. (1929). Map of prehistoric irrigation canals [map]. . page.
  51. Verhoeven, P. (1990). Total recall. United States: Columbia Pictures [motion picture] (Director).
  52. Wack, P. (1985). Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139–150.
  53. Wu, N. (2007). Futurists set up fake scenario. Honolulu star-Bulletin. . html.

Design It Like Our Livelihoods Depend on It | Gorbis, Fidler

Marina Gorbis, Devin Fidler; Design It Like Our Livelihoods Depend on It; In Some Blog entitled WTF? hosted on Medium; 2016-04-04.
Teaser: 8 Principles for creating on-demand platforms for better work futures

Marina Gorbis
  • Executive Director, Institute for the Future (IFTF)
WTF = What’s The Future? (get it?)
  • A blog
    CuratedEdited by Tim O’Reilly.
  • A conference
    Next: Economy Summit, San Francisco, CA, 2016-10-10 & 11.
  • Theme: All face massive, technology-driven change
    • work,
    • business,
    • society.
  1. Earnings maximization
  2. Stability and predictability
  3. Transparency
  4. Portability of products and reputations
  5. Upskilling
  6. Social Connectedness
  7. Bias Elimination
  8. Feedback mechanisms

Brand: Positive Platforms
<quote>platforms that not only maximize profits for their owners but also provide dignified and sustainable livelihoods for those who work on them, plus enrich society as a whole — is one of the most urgent tasks we are facing today</quote>


The “results” of the Study. That. Shows.

  • Should there be minimum wages
    What should the minimum be? Even for the Mechanical Turk clicky HITS?
  • People working on platforms should be able to own the products of their work and their reputation histories, and carry them from platform to platform.
    <pull-quote>All of my portfolio links are broken now, and I don’t think people can find me anymore.<pull-quote>How has this been solved via intellectual property law the entertainment industry? For music, For film, etc.?
  • The Platforms organizations are newbies; they don’t know The Detente.
    The formal organizations have the detente after the (centuries of) labor violence and legal decisioning;
    The Platforms using the contractor-cum-employee scheme does not follow The Detente.
  • Platforms create networks
    Networks create culsters
    Clusters create bias
    Bias creates polarization
    Polarization is bad.
  • Cannot negotiate with an algorithm.
    Sure you can, to stretch the anthropomorphic negotiation metaphor, the same way a sailor negotiates with the wind to sail towards it. Study it, learn its means, learn its effects, learn its limitations: bend its power to your will.


  • on-demand platform design as a discipline
  • social choices
  • cede choices to platform creators
  • <quote>We embed values into our technologies, and today such values are reflections of Silicon Valley’s techno-centric ethos and funding models.</quote>
  • user-interaction designers, a role/
  • Arun Sundararajan
  • AirBnB, stating services
  • eBay, not cited; in another era it was the <Gee-Whiz!/>
  • income stability
    income predictability
    <quote>shifting pay structures with only a few days’ or no prior notice</quote>
  • Earnings maximization, for whom?
    Payment minimization, for whom?
    <quote>Connections between design choices and earnings are not understood.</quote>


How is any of this different than studying the scheme design underlying any Multi-Level Marketing (MLM) scheme: Amway, Avon, Mary Kay, Tupperware; or generalized life coaching or real estate flippage?The Multiple Listings Service (MLS) contra The Real Estate platforms e.g. Zillow, Redfin, etc.

Sounds very MLM…

  • transparency concepts
  • the algorithm
  • retention
    • data retention
    • people retention
  • career ladders
    i.e. ladder ranking, a promotion system

On Activism Against The Man

Activism against The Platform occurs outside The Platform,
It occurs on other platforms:

  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Google Groups (but not <snide>Google Plus?</snide>)
  • “and other social media sites”

Clicky Class Consciousness

Mechanical Turk workers have a separable class consciousness
… just stop, pause and consider that for a minute: Mechanical Turk workers; the class consciousness of Mechanical Turk workers. Yet recall that Mechanical Turk exists because that clicky work can be done at trivial-unto-ephemeral pay rates because it can be; it’s still too expensive get machines to do it..

The Data-veillance

Something about using “vast amounts of data” as is done by these exemplary products:

  • Degreed
    skills-model job matching, contracted work
  • Unitive
    employment law compliance
  • Upwork
    skills-model job matching, contracted work

Supply & Demand

Something about the effect of surge pricing on congestion

  • in a neighborhood (where a neighborhood is a delicate thing)
  • within a city (where a city is a robust thing)
Managed Economy, Planning Economics

Something about managed trading in the controlled economy

  • Minimum wages allowed,
    contra salary caps
  • Maximum payments allowed,
    contra revenue guarantees

Exemplars of The Design Thinking

Patterns of design, the unctuousness of the UX, the ease of the affordation.
<quote>[those whose] apps are exquisitely designed</quote>


  • As [commissioned?] research
  • Wherein it is 2015
  • Institute for the Future (IFTF)


A Study. That. Shows.


  • convenience sample, with snowballing
  • people who are working on “platforms”
  • admission
    • the degree of engagement or time spent on platforms
      range: passively renting to working full-time
    • degree of skill required
      range: Uber drivers → HourlyNerd
  • locations
    (United States only)

    • San Francisco
    • New York
    • Miami
    • Chicago
    • “and elsewhere”


  • Document perspectives
  • Immerse ourselves in their vocabulary
  • Something about using ethnographic methods to tune the platform to “the people.”


Ethnographic recordation
  • document the use cases
  • document the perspectives

See the concept of the “fiduciary” in the Bitcoin discussions. c.f. Angela Walch
These are but the <ahem>Multi-sided markets</ahem>, yes?


Only two individuals are cited.

Alan Cooper
  • is was a UXer
  • opined in The Inmates Are Running the Asylum
  • Biography
    • <quote>He is best known as the “Father of Visual Basic”</quote>
    • Founder, Cooper, a [design shop]
  • design languages
  • optimize for usability.
  • on-demand work platforms
    the segue
Arun Sundararajan
  • Stern School of Business, New York University
    • the NEC Faculty Fellow
    • Professor of Information, Operations and Management Sciences
    • Doctoral Coordinator
  • The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism; The MIT Press; 2016-05-13; 256 pages; Amazon:0262034573: kindle: $10, paper: $10+SHT.
  • Expertise
    • Network effect
    • Digital rights management
    • Price discrimination

Via: Jimi Wales’ Wiki & Google Search


  • Alan Cooper; The Inmates Are Running the Asylum: Why High Tech Products Drive Us Crazy and How to Restore the Sanity; Sams of Pearson Education; 1st edition; 2004-03-05: 288 pages; Amazon:0672326140: Kindle: maybe, paper: $30+SHT.

Roundup of miscellaneous notes, captured and organized

Blockchain Culture

The Seven(Hundred) Dwarves

  • Blockstack(.org)- The New Decentralized Internet
    • blockstack, at GitHub
    • Union Square Ventures (USV)
    • Promotion
      • Staff (USV); The Blockchain App Stack; In Their Blog; 2016-08-08.
      • Blockstack Unveils A Browser For The Decentralized Web; Laura Shin; In Forbes; 2017-05-15.
        tl;dr → <quote>Tuesday, at the main blockchain industry conference, Consensus, one of the companies working on this new decentralized web, Blockstack, which has $5.5 million in funding from Union Square Ventures and AngelList cofounder Naval Ravikant, released a browser add-on that enables that and more.<snip/>The add-on enables a browser to store the user’s identity information by a local key on the consumer’s device.</quote>; Ryan Shea, cofounder.
  • Everyone has something here.

Bluetooth Culture

Bluetooth LE (BLE)

  • and?

Bluetooth 5

  • Something about mesh networking
  • Something about the standard being released “summer 2017.”

C++ Culture


  • The roadmap onto the twenties.


  • MapReduce, from ETL or EU somewhere.
  • Kyoto Cabinet, Typhoon, Tycoon
  • Virtual Reality packages
  • Ctemplate, Olafud Spek (?)
  • Robot Operating System (ROS)
  • libgraphqlparser – A GraphQL query parser in C++ with C and C++ APIs

Computing Culture

Ubicomp, <ahem>Pervicomp</ahem>

  • Rich Gold
  • Mark Weiser

Dev(Ops) Culture

Futures Cult(ure)


  • Cory Doctorow, the coming war against general purpose computing, an article; WHERE?
  • Cory Doctorow, dystopia contra utopia, an article; WHERE?


  • Cory Doctorow, various works

Imagine a World In Which…

  • Stocks vs Flows
  • Chaos vs Stability
  • Permission vs Permissionless
  • Civil Society ↔ Crony Society
    • Transparency
    • Deals
    • Priorities
  • Predictive Technology “just works”
    • is trusted
    • is eventual
    • is law
    • “is” equates with “ought”

Fedora Culture

  • Flatpak

Fedora 26 Notes

  • nmcli reload con down $i
  • nm cli reload con up $i
  • eui64 must be manually configured

Internet of (unpatchable) Thingies (IoT)

  • MQTT
  • mosquito

Language Lifestyles

Go Lang

  • Go for it.
  • A package manager


  • theory
  • implementation?

Rust Lang

  • Was there a NoStarch book?


  • C++20?
    hey, surely someone has modules working by now, eh?



  • Repig, in C++, with threads, in an NVMe


  • sure, what?


  • Interface to the (discontinued) Proliphix thermostats


  • CDN Store
  • Picture Store
  • Document Cache (store & forward)


  • Firefox Tiles

SCOLD Experiences

SCOLD near-syntax, common errors

  • #import <hpp>
  • missing #divert
  • #using, a declaration
  • #origin
  • #namespace
  • $@


Build System
  • –with-std-scold or maybe –with-scold
  • vecdup, like strdup
  • vectree, like strfree→free
  • json::check::Failure or json::Cast.
  • namespace json::is
    • is_array
    • is_null
    • is_object
  • json::as<…>(…)
  • pathify(…)
  • column result
  • concept guarding the template parameter, from C++17
  • typed strings
    • location
    • path
    • etc.
  • and

Surveillance Culture


  • Eigenpeople
  • Eigenpersonas
  • Personality modeling


Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, Jordi Quoidbach, Florent Robic, Alex (Sandy) Pentland; Predicting Personality Using Novel Mobile Phone-Based Metrics; In: A.M. Greenberg, W.G. Kennedy, N.D. Bos (editors) Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction as Proceedings of Social Computing, Behavioral (SBP 2013), Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7812; 2013; paywalls: Springer, ACM. Previously filled.


  • POSS (Post Open Source Software)
    defined as: if everything is on GitHub, then who needs licenses?
    Was this ever amplified?
    Certainly it is facially incorrect and facile.


  • Rob Horning; Sock of Myself, an essay; In Real Life Magazine; 2017-05-17
    tl;dr → riffing on happiness, Facebook. Is. Bad. Q.E.D. R.D. Laing , The Divided Self,; John Cheney-Lippold’s We Are Data; Donald Mackenzie.
  • Michael Nelson; University of California, Riverside.

Purposive directionality

  • increase
    • predictability
  • reduce
    • uncertainty
    • variability


Uncomprehensible, Unknown, Unpossible

  • Sunlight, a package? FOSS?

The Experiential Turn | Candy, Dunagan

Stuart Candy, Jake Franklin Dunagan; The Experiential Turn; In Human Futures; 2016-12; 4 pages (2 as slideware); ResearchGate

Original Sources

Candy, S. and Dunagan, J. (2016). Designing an Experiential Scenario: The People Who Vanished. In Futures. Separately noted.


  • a student of history
  • a mindreader, of others mental models.
  • a flexible thinker
  • a master of situations
  • an engineer of experiences
  • a fastidious documentarian
  • a willing collaborator


For futures studies to impact mainstream culture and contribute to civilisation-scale “social foresight” it must be capable of bridging the “experiential gulf” between abstract possible futures, and life as it is directly apprehended in the embodied present. Some suggestions are offered for core skills and sensibilities to be cultivated by futurists in order to engage the experiential register.


  • gulf of foresight
  • emotional impact
  • Experiential Futures Ladder
  • Experiential Futures
  • social foresight
  • OCAD
  • CCA
  • The ‘R’s
    • VR
    • AR
    • MR
  • Games



  1. Candy, S. (2010). The Futures of Everyday Life. University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  2. Candy, S. (2015). The Thing from the Future. In: Curry (Ed.). The APF Methods Anthology. APF.
  3. Candy, S. and Dunagan, J. (2016). Designing an Experiential Scenario: The People Who Vanished. In Futures.
  4. Dator, J. (1993). From Future Workshops to Envisioning Alternative Futures. Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies.
  5. Dator, J. (1996). Futures Studies as Applied Knowledge. In Slaughter (Ed.). New Thinking for a New Millennium. Routledge.
  6. Jungk, R. and Mullert, N. (1987) Future Workshops. Institute for Social Inventions.
  7. Ramos, J. (2006). Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight. In Futures.
  8. Slaughter, R. A. (1996). Futures Studies: From Individual to Social Capacity. In Futures.
  9. Voros, J. (2008). Integral Futures: An approach to futures inquiry. In Futures.

Making the Futures Present | Amy Helen Margaret Greyson

Amy Helen Margaret Greyson; Making the Futures Present, report ocadu:1441, Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation; OCAD University; 2016-12 (2017-02-14); 193 pages; CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
About: OCAD U is an art, design and media university in Canada.


This research explores personal experiential futures in the creation of a new technique for helping an individual to envision a preferred future for himself or herself living in complex global futures.

“Making the Futures Present” is the prototype of a proposed personal futures technique that begins by exploring ‘the world out there’ before ‘the inner world’. By the end of a three-phase interview cycle each participant receives a personalized high-fidelity prototype. That artifact or experience intentionally provokes the participant’s perception of the expected future. The proposed technique employs concepts from experiential futures, ethnographic futures research and prototyping processes. This technique is described in this paper step by step with images from every stage of the process. The paper includes a literature review of evolving foresight practices that locating this technique in personal futures, a growing area of interest. The paper refers to comparable narrative therapy practices and other disciplines that can be useful references in the evolution of this technique. Outcomes from this research, by way of participant statements and supporting theory, yield various insights for the development of this technique and why this concept is necessary now.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
    • My View of Our Story
    • A New Story about our Future Self
    • From Purpose to Preferred Futures
    • Background to Personal Futures
    • The Intention Behind the Approach
    • A Proposal for Futures Practice
    • The Proposed Technique
    • Conclusion
  2. Locating Making the Futures Present in Time
    • A Futures History Lesson
    • Personal Foresight Frameworks and Methodologies
    • Comparable Practices in Social Science
    • Conclusion
  3. The Emergence of Personal Futures
    • Personal Futures
    • Examples of Personal Futures Projects
    • Conclusion
  4. The Design of Making the Futures Present
    • Ethnographic Futures Research
    • Experiential Futures
    • A Human-centred Approach
    • Characteristics of Making the Futures Present
      • Interactive Interviews
      • Deep listening
      • Language
      • Systems Thinking
      • Prototypes
    • Other Disciplines of Envisioning a Preferred Future
    • Conclusion
  5. The Importance of Making the Futures Present
    • The Importance of Personal Futures for Individuals
    • Three Myths and One Truism
    • The Importance of Personal Futures in Society
    • Conclusion
  6. Making the Futures Present Technique
    • The Research Method
      • Research
    • Approval for the Research
    • The Participant’s Journey
      • 1: Generating Scenarios
      • 2: Generating Prototypes
      • 3: Generating a High-Fidelity Prototype
    • The Process for Designing the Final High-fidelity Prototype
    • The Follow-up Interview07
    • The Evolution of the Interview Protocol09
    • The Experiential Futures Ladder
    • Conclusion
  7. Research Reflections
    • Giving Participants the Fabricated Futures Present
  8. Evaluating Making the Futures Present
    • Might Making the Futures Present help someone to create a new personal future narrative?
    • An Optimal Outcome
    • Indicators of Success
    • Opportunities and Challenges for the Technique
    • Conclusion
  9. From Apathy to Action
    • Implementation Plan
    • Next steps
    • A limitation of the proposed approach
    • Conclusion
  10. Conclusion
    • In Response to the Research Question
    • In Response to the Sub-questions
    • A final summary
  • Appendix A: Formal Steps of the Proposed Technique
  • Appendix B: Three Case Studies
  • Appendix C: Participants
  • Appendix D: Participant Feedback
  • Appendix E: Consent forms
  • Appendix F: Introductory Script at the Start of the First Interview
  • Appendix G: The Creative Warm-up Activity

Ethnographic Experiential Futures | Candy, Kornet

Stuart Candy, Kelly Kornet; A Field Guide to Ethnographic Experiential Futures, version 1.1, Situation Lab 02017 (c.f. ten thousand year clock); presented at Design Develop Transform, Brussels; 2017-06, DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.30623.97448; landing.

tl;dr → how to run advanced product development to incorporate focus group feedback.

  1. Map
  2. Multiply
  3. Mediate
  4. Mount
  5. Map(again)

Map → document.
Multiply → a metaphor, as such.
Mediate → build (model, mock up, prototype)..
Mount → test.




  • Ethnographic Futures (EF) and when does as “Research” (EFR)
  • Experiential Futures (XF)


  • Ethnographic Experiential Futures (EXF)

<quote ref=”that“> Ethnographic Futures is more descriptive; looking for what’s present but often hidden in people’s heads. Experiential Futures is more creative; rendering these notional possibilities visible, tangible, immersive and interactive, externalising and concretising representations of them for closer inspection and deeper discussion.</quote>


  • EFR Categories
    • Ethnographic Futures Research (EFR)
    • from [Textor 1989] unavailable, only two pages anyway.
  • Experiential Futures (XF)
  • Ethnographic Experiential Futures (EXF)
  • Situation Lab
  • Extrapolation Factory
  • 1-888-FUTURES
  • Experiential Futures Ladder
  • Setting
  • Scenario
  • Situations
  • Stuff (artifacts)
  • facilitator
  • designer


Stuart Candy
Kelly Kornet


  • Diagetic → <fancy>from film theory, sound corresponding to the visible action</fancy>
    • Urban Dictionary (!!! buy the mug!)
    • Wictionary
    • Jimi Wales’ Wiki
      a style of fictionstorytelling that presents an interior view of a world in which:

      1. details about the world itself and the experiences of its characters are revealed explicitly through narrative
      2. the story is told or recounted, as opposed to shown or enacted.</quote>

      • Another term for diegetic sound is actual sound
      • Another term for non-diegetic sound is commentary sound.
      • Diegesis is a Greek word for “recounted story”
        The film’s diegesis is the total world of the story action


  • Greyson, Making the Futures Present
  • Candy & Dunagan, Foundfutures Chinatown
  • Textor, Ethnographic Futures Research
  • Kornet, Causing an Effect
  • Foundfutures, a “guerilla futures” performance


  • He, Himself; Ethnographic Experiential Futures; In His Blog entitled the sceptical futuryst; 2017-06-23.
    (no title case and he use precedes his year system with a zero, e.g. 02017, to convey that the work was done in octal on computers in the medieval times circa 1039 BCE a Long Now-type ten-thousand year calendar).




  • The Futures of Everyday Life Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios; landing
  • Field Guide to the Ethnographic Experiential Futures; landing
  • Designing an Experiential Scenario: The People Who Vanished; landing
  • The Experiential Turn; landing; an overview.



Previously filled.

A World in Which | Jamais Cascio

Jamais Cascio; A World in Which; In His Blog entitled Open The Future; 2016?

The piece is the full text of a talk


Why do we think about the future?

  • Because we cancould.
    <snide>Institute for Idle Curiosity About Tomorrow</snide>.
  • The future because
    • that the future matters
    • that we still have a say in the future we get
  • Think of the future in generational terms, not just as a count of years.
  • The Study of the future
    The “study” of the future is foresight.

    • to act appropriately, to act responsibly
    • for prudence
  • It is cultural anthropology
    • history
    • economics <ahem>which is a religion</quote>
  • Who listens to these stories?
    • <quote>[NOT] academic cabals that communicate through peer-reviewed journals and passive-aggressive blog posts. </quote>
    • folks whom might not know <quote>The future is a journey, not a destination.</quote>
    • Therefore
      • Be a storytellers so they will listen & buy.
      • Narrative, renarrative.
      • anticipatory history.
      • depictions of change, via story.
    • [there exists a plurality of] foresight practitioners who dislike the storytelling trope, because storytelling seems too unserious. AND THIS IS SERIOUS.


  • Joseph Campbell
  • <quote>We use a narrative of the imaginary to explain the deep structure of the world.</quote> The parable system.
  • Fancy
    • “strategic wind-tunneling”
    • “contingency analysis”
    • “preference-agnostic outcome projection”
  • Foresight scenarios
    • are myth-making
    • are explicit stories of how the world works.

The Incantation

This is a world in which…

  • The blatant introduction
  • The futurist’s version of once upon a time.
  • All assumptions about the way of things come under scrutiny.
    • What do I want this world to be?
    • How does this future differ from the here and now?
    • What is the story of this new reality?

Scenarios ~ Science Fiction

Similar work product, but distinct mindset & accents.

  • use characters to highlight world structure
  • packed tight in the limited space
  • multiple story lines
Science Fiction
  • uses world structure to advance character development.
  • sparse detail
  • as much space as the audience has time for; trilogy? serialized saga?
  • single story line, by definition.


  • Useful foresight scenarios need to be about people, our desires and our fears.
  • Technologies are fundamentally cultural artifacts
  • Technologies’creation and use are manifestations of [the] values, beliefs, and intentions of their [owners, developers, a.k.a. their creators].
  • These need to be stories of how we live our lives, not just a catalog of inventions lightly sprinkled with global events.
  • They should ask us, how do we grapple with the challenges presented to us by a world in which?
  • Scenarios should seem to be either utopian or dystopian.


  • the scientism <quote>part of the brain that lights up when</quote>
  • <aphorism>skate to where the puck will be</aphorism> attributed to Wayne Gretzky.
  • “the past is a foreign country,” attributed to LP Hartley.
  • “the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet,” William Gibson.


  • William Gibson.
  • Wayne Gretzky.
  • Leslie Poles Hartley, 1895-12-30→1972-12-13; Jimi Wales’ Wiki

Work Product

Body Area Networks

  1. Papers, Please
  2. X-Ray Vision
  3. Memory

Body Area Networks are commonplace and diverse, but with different rules and affordances in different parts of the world.

  • Can privacy be possible here?
  • Can you ever be alone in this world?
  • What risks might you run seeking to be by yourself?

Papers, Please

  • Republic of Scotland
  • wristbands
  • “back in the day” was the Age of Anonymous.

A trip abroad is explained:

  • arrival with external passports,
  • sightseeing internal passports,
  • health care emergency is sketched,
  • a return to home and safety is completed.
  • self-protection
  • with encryption
  • system monitors
  • component isolation

Connection, determinism: technologies are built to be connected.

  • Who owns that connection?
    Who controls the off switch?

X-Ray Vision

  • sociental-level
  • body-area networks are called “selfies”
    <quote>Although the information is private, it may still be accessible by families, by governments, or by the device manufacturers</quote> (anyone but you, anyone but the person sitting next to you?)
  • Earthquake swarm of on the Hayward Fault in 2024.
  • Demonstrations, Sao Paolo, 2038-04.



Is it possible that the best outcome might be if nobody controls the off switch?


  • Personal Area Network Devices and Accessories — PANDAs
  • Like a FitBit, but more so.
  • Girlfriend Isabella — “Izzy.”
  • Shared feelings across telecom.
  • She dies in a car.

Connection (love)

  • What if?
  • Would you get rid of it?

The sibling who holds the featurephone that contains the last SMS being typed when she crashed into the car in front of her. [cite?]

Previously filled.

PDV-91: References for the final assignment: Design Your Own Future


PDV-91: Final Assignment, Design Your Own Future


In archaeological order (newer matieral on top, older material below)

Credential to Panhandle

A bold economic theory on why panhandlers should act more like registered charities; Leslie Albrecht; In MarketWatch; 2017-07-24; separately noted.
Teaser: Giving money to others boosts our happiness, but only when we know we’re making an impact
tl;dr → a license to panhandle validated with a bluetooth beacon+iOS+Cloud; appware entitled GiveSafeSamaritan, is in market now (Apple only). roles: supplicant, samaritan, supplier; It’s a scrip scheme, yet whither AML & KYC?


Swirl Networks

Promotional Pages
  • How it works
  • Location-enabled consumer audiences
  • Geofence, WiFi, Beacon, VLC

Policy Control and Charging (PCC)

Policy Control; Palo Alto Networks (vendor product documentation)
Pretty much every vendor has these nowadays. See: Sandvine, Cisco, Juniper.

Audience Exchange

Under-Culture Experiences

Ame Elliot (Simply Secure); Privacy and Threat in Practice: Mobile Messaging by Low-Income New Yorkers; Presented at the 25th  USENIX Security Symposium; 2016-08-10→12; with video; separately filled.

Themes: renter’s mindset, family phone plan, no privacy, plausible deniability within cultural socialization, always interviewing, hourly work, unscheduled work, loss of control, no physical space; <vignette>bosses require video evidence you are sick so carry an Android because the cameras are plausibly bad enough you can fake it; never carry an iPhone, they “just work” and will rat you out.</vignette>

The Perennials

Gina Pell, press cycle, multiple outlets, 2016-2017.

Gina Pell (The What) Meet the Perennials; In Her Blog, hoisted on Medium; 2016-10-19; separately filled.
Teaser: Because age ain’t nothin’ but a number
Gina Pell is Content Chief, The What, a blog.
tl;dr → Perennials are early-to-mid-career, mid-to-upper-affluence, substantially childlessfree (pre-, post-, bychoice-, anti-), educated, cosmopolitan, coastal, suburban-to-urban, but not urban; and most importantly consumerist in mindset; a.k.a. they are Creative Class “professional” types.

Why women of 40 and 50 are the new ‘ageless generation’; Leah Hardy; In The Telegraph; 2017-07-02; separately filled.
tl;dr → Of a certain age, and forever 21 (as branded); it is “middle age” but not to be called that because old people are middle aged.

Gina Pell welcomes the Perennials: all-ages movement of relevancy; Catherine Bigelow; In The San Francisco Chronicle; 2017-02-15.
tl;dr → Gina Pell developed The Perennials concept to capture the cohort of older (uh) Millennial-Gen-Xers who, in middle age, now want some respect.

(The Robin Report); The Rise of the Perennial Millennial; In Their Blog; 2016-08-15; separately filled.
Nick Graham
CEO of Nick Graham, a Menswear brand (with a capital ‘M’), since 2014.
ex-founder, Chief Underpants Officer, JOE BOXER brand.

Perennial Millennials → a group of generationally agnostic individuals, equally committed to seeking out societal solutions, who respect the ability and intelligence of future generations to guide, be guided, and even ignore the follies of the previous generation.

Quibbling on dates, it appears that Nick Graham uttered Perennial Millennial a quarter prior to Gina Pell’s The Perennials, but the latter presentation got the attentive press cycle.


Call for Papers on Hipster Geographies, a panel, to perform at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (AAG), San Francisco, CA; 2016-03-29 → 2016-04-02.  Separately filled.  Only the call for participation; but see the references for background & theory.
tl;dr → Issues in & around race consciousness, a youth demographic; Seattle- and London-focused emerging adult focused. Aligned with Florida’s  Creative Class.

Verizon UIDH and Mobile Tracking

AT&T had something like this, but abandoned commercial side of the program.
Not cited..

Emerging Adulthood

Jeffrey Jensen Arnett; Emerging Adulthood: The Winding Road from the Late Teens Through the Twenties; Oxford University Press; 2014 & 2006.

Shell & Scenarios

Angel Wilkinson, Roland Kupers; The Essence of Scenarios: Learning From the Shell Experience; Amsterdam University Press; 2014-02-18; 185 pages; Amazon:9089645942; kindle: $36, paper: $30+SHT. Separately noted.


Youth Mode: A Report on Freedom | K-Hole, Box 1824

Report #4Youth Mode: A Report on Freedomamong Greg Fong, Sean Monahan, Emily Segal, Chris Sherron, Dena Yago of K-HOLE, BOX 1824 (creative agencies, cultural knowers, trend seers); 2013-10. 40 pages, 35 of content; as noted, circa 2013-10-31.


AT&T Project Greenstar

ATT Project Greenstar Secretly Spied Millions of Calls, excerpt, pages 92-97; In Cryptome; 2013-01-28.
See EFF Spying FAQ.

Phil Lapsley; Exploding The Phone: The Untold Story of the Teenagers and Outlaws Who Hacked Ma Bell
Grove Press, New York; 2013-02-05; 450 pages; Amazon:B009SAV5W0; Kindle: $10, paper: $5+SHT.

Data is the New Oil

Is Data The New Oil?; Perry Rotella; In Forbes; 2012-04-02.
<quote>CNBC Squawk Box segment, “The Pulse of Silicon Valley,” host Joe Kernan posed the question, “What is the next really big thing?” to Ann Winblad, the legendary investor and senior partner at Hummer-Winblad. Her response: “Data is the new oil.”</quote>

(much earlier)
<quote>Personal data is the new oil of the Internet and the new currency of the digital world.</quote>

Meglena Kuneva, European Consumer Commissioner, March 2009-03, quoted on page 5
Personal Data: The Emergence of a New Asset Class; 2011-02-17; 40 pages; landing.

[A Computer Must] Never Ask a User [something it already knows]

Eric S. Raymond, Rob W. Landley; In The Art of Unix Usability; 2004.
<quote>Rule of Automation: Never ask the user for any information that you can autodetect, copy, or deduce.</quote>,

The Tussle

David D. Clark, John Wroclawski, Karen Sollins, Robert Braden; Tussle in Cyberspace: Defining Tomorrow’s Internet; In Proceedings of ACM Special Interest Group on Communications (SIGCOMM); 2002-08-19; 16 pages; separately filled.

David J. Staley; A History of the Future; In History and Theory; Theme Issue 41; ISSN: 0018-2656; 2002-12; pages 72-89 (18 pages). Separately noted.

Saeculum Generational Theory

Neil Howe, William Strauss; The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy; Broadway Books; 1997-12-29; 400 pages; promotional site; a copy.
Neil Howe, William Strauss; Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069; Quill; 1992-09-30; 538 pages.


Paul Taylor (Pew Research Center); The Next America: Boomers, Millennials, and the Looming Generational Showdown; Public Affairs; 2014-03-04; 288 pages; kindle: $15, paper: $18; promotional site.
Paul Taylor, Executive Vice President of Special Projects at the Pew Research Center.

Both Sides Now

Joni Mitchell, Both Sides, Now, 1967.
Lyrics: Google Search (display in page),
Background: Jimi Wales’ Wiki.

The Organization Man

William H. Whyte; The Organization Man; Simon & Schuster; 1957-07-30; 448 pages; Amazon:B01JXQDBZ2; paper: $12+SHT, Kindle: no (ahem, no of course not, they didn’t have Kindle e-readers or DRM in 1957, you had to read paper, but that didn’t stop ‘em, they knew how to read back in those days. I digress.); University of Pennsylvania Press; revised edition; Amazon:0812218191: Kindle: $15, paper: $10+SHT.

The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit

Sloan Wilson; The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit; Some Publisher; 1955; Da Capo Press; 4 edition; 2002-10-23; 288 pages; Amazon:1568582463: Kindle: $11, paper: $2+SHT.

PDV-91: Final Project – How to Think Like a Futurist

Wendell Baker
Final Project: PDV-91 – How to Think Like a Futurist
Instructor: Jane McGonigal

WHEN: 2028
WHAT: The future of advertising
WHY: Tracking (per Kelly)

Imagine a World Where.… every activity is potentially recordable, traceable, archivable, and thus monetizable. But technology is deterministic and inevitible: what can be done, will be done. It must be done unless it is uneconomic. Some boosterist once opined “data is the new oil.” Of course, this is unfounded because data is made from oil, and more. Data is made from doing things, better data than merely reading-and-clicking-and-reading web pages. Data comes from observing the world. But what comes of the exuberance for the concept is fine. Data creates knowledge to direct the world. Here we are upon the 2K‑twenties where it is better, faster, safer, simpler to record first then analyze-and-correct later. We have a national-scale billing and recording infrastructure for every phone call, every SMS message, every television show. They even record ambient street chatter, and in-car conversations: everywhere and always. Like AT&T Project Greenstar, but with positive cash flow; like Verizon UIDH, but available for every channel always and everywhere. With such abundant recorded supply, the trade has set about to optimize, streamline and ease the burdens of living, but most of all to make more money.

No one asked, but fifty years on, computing became pervasive and wholly invisible. It is “ho hum.” Such befell elevators, frozen food, television, automatic transmissions, and multi-stream recycling programs. Nobody is gushing “gee-whiz! it’s just phenomenal!” about the mobile, the online, those “digital natives,” or “the cyber,” not any more. By “computing” one comprehends the mind-numbing acts of bookkeeping, recordation and reconciliation. Nobody balances a Check21 book, a brokerage statement, an invoice-to-payment statement, and hasn’t for a generation. KYC & AML, they know who you are. One also comprehends computing in the little acts of operability and control: braking, doors, faucets, toilets flushing, lights, checkout, payment, signout, signin. But also in enforcement and supervision. There is permissioned Policy Control and Charging (PCC) layered on everything: when, where, how, who, limits and prices. Computing is safety, performance, animation, entertainment and fun. Unless in the business itself, most people comprehend the computing as nifty, fun and helpful.

The Emerging Adults have, well, emerged. Millenialism doesn’t sound forward-looking or millenarian at all. These people work stable jobs, lease the cars, buy the health insurance, swap the credit cards, hold the union cards, grind on 30-year full-amortization mortgages. They are the family plan; everyone’s gear hangs by that bill. They plan vacations around the kids, they have calendar-scheduled “date nite.” They live-apart-together. Their work moves downSandyet, to the youngs, and overseas all the time, yet they’ve figured it out. They have become The Organization’s franchise player. It’s grey flannel, but it’s their flannel, reminding them fondly of what was: hipster, cargo pockets, normcore, mass indie. It is still no less a suit. They are at peace with it, it’s what they wanted all along. They are masters at the constancy of change. The Xers have received the secret knowledge of generational wisdom as a Sandwich Generation always does; they see both sides now: what was, what will be. They know don’t they know life at all; they comprehend actuarial science, if only by poetry as time compounded. They have less time now but they too pretend they are permanently and ever thus. Many still work for The Man, because they must but also many have become The Man, even if in little ways. They are owed, they remember somewhat how it was to owe. The Perennials are now “Of a Certain Age.” Graceful and grand are some, but not all, wherein “Age is only a Number.”


Lee is headed into the coffee shop. It’s raining, which is new. Apparently it always rains here. Lots of college types around here too. The phone buzzed a bit. It had made contact with the kiosk. Looking around, there was the linkup. All there was to do was accept the script-chit-thingy and payment was done. It also qualified one into the Frequent Coffee, College Crew segment. Swirl Networks, right there on the sticker. He knew what he was doing; given notice, he had given consent. He pulled in the other notification and donated to the homeless person sitting in the window. There was a name on the license but he didn’t read it. Too much. Everything nowadays is noticed, choiced and consented. It never ended. He had the Consent Fatigue. He moved on, other things to do.


It is the first week in January, 2029. The professional football season is finishing up. Sandy is back in the office after taking the New Year’s holiday off. Good fun, good food, good rest. Now back to work. She does audience management for the big ad exchanges. She thinks this is vaguely like the bee keeping that her great uncle used to do. No outdoors though. There’s some work to it, but as long as you keep ahead of it, the hive will always be producing. Sandy does audience shaping and amplification with a bit of open-market trading on the side. They have contracts and terms on the DataX blockchain.

Across the Fall, since August 2028, they had set up the rigging to record the attendees in the thirty one NFL stadiums. She’s going to trade on that through the Superbowl in February. Her first tranche was announced on the IAB’s Audience Exchange Protocol in December. She’s going to amplify and shape these audiences to get more out of them. She’ll have to buy some other audiences and blend them.

It’s never ceased to amaze Sandy: who wants this stuff? There is some movie being scheduled for summer about space and robots where the distributors want young families with preteens. Sandy thought it would be smarter to hunt those people by looking for them in malls and schools. Preteens have to be in school, surely. But the customer is always paying, if not always right. There’s another RFP on her desk for college-bound students in the Northeast. She’s going to have to use amplification to get the kind of reach they want. The modeled audiences are not as easy to sell, but they can do wonders for a vaguely defined campaign.


  • Swirl Networks is a real company on a business plan that is mostly as shown. They are used here as example of the genre. There are several others in this genre.
  • Consent Fatigue is a real concern, in and around the GDPR and ePR & ePD laws.
  • Location ranging for retail is in active development now.
  • Credentialing for panhandling is a real proposal with serious academic study behind it.
  • The Bluetooth-linkup kiosk is in product development now. There are lots of hurdles to overcome to make them commercially meaningful. Today, they are science projects.
  • At Yahoo, I developed attendance recording at large venues using adtech mechanisms. An early market trial was NFL stadiums in 2015. BrightRoll Exchange, Oath Ad Systems. Others have developed similar product offerings as well. Sports venues is in GA in 2017.
  • Audience Exchange Protocol is (was) a real proposal. It is currently moribund.
  • DataX is a live product offering, but does not today incorporate a blockchain.

See the References, presented separately.

License to panhandle is validated with iBeacon, iOS and The Cloud

A bold economic theory on why panhandlers should act more like registered charities; Leslie Albrecht; In MarketWatch; 2017-07-24.
Teaser: Giving money to others boosts our happiness, but only when we know we’re making an impact

tl;dr → a license to panhandle validated with a bluetooth beacon+iOS+Cloud; appware entitled GiveSafeSamaritan, is in market now (Apple only). roles: supplicant, samaritan, supplier; It’s a scrip scheme, yet whither AML & KYC?


Contrast With

Dispossessed in the Land of Dreams; Monica Potts; In The New Republic; 2015-12-13; previously noted.
Teaser: Those left behind by Silicon Valley’s technology boom struggle to stay in the place they call home.
Monica Potts is a fellow with the New America Asset Building program.

GiveSafe → Samaritan

  • GiveSafe (now called Samaritan)
  • FoodCircles LC
  • iOS only; see iTunes
  • Developed in Seattle, WA
  • Stable:


  • New York City Mayor
  • Bill de Blasio, mayor, New York City
  • Manhattan
  • Elizabeth Dunn hasn’t studied panhandling specifically, but said <paraphrase>it was probably similar enough for the purposes of the interview</paraphrase>


Credentialing the homeless

<quote>[GiveSafe] notifies users when they walk past a homeless person who’s wearing an electronic “beacon.” The app provides the user with the story of how the homeless person ended up on the street. The <edit>mark</edit> can make a donation that the recipient can only use for essentials such as “bus fare, groceries, a haircut or storage locker.”</quote>


<quote>I could see a world where just as there are different personal trainer certifying groups, there could be different panhandler certifying groups. </quote>, attributed to Brendan O’Flaherty.
<quote>Mosques could certify panhandlers who are observant Muslims, other groups could credential panhandlers who are sober.</quote>, attributed to Brendan O’Flaherty.


  • Brendan O’Flaherty, staff, economist, Columbia University
  • Megan Hustings, interim director, National Coalition for the Homeless
  • Elizabeth Dunn, professor, psychology, University of British Columbia



In MarketWatch

Previously filled.

PDV-91, Week 3, Journal entry from the future, 2028

[artlessly], sans edits; in the thematic style of Tim Maughan’s Zero Hours [cited below]

It’s 2028-10-10, A Tuesday, the day after Monday.

My house is seventy five years old at this point. We’ve got some new additions, some internal rebuilding, but the main part of the house is still as it ever was from the remodel back in the oughties. That means that some things “work” and some parts are warped and odd-shaped. The robots haven’t really materialized to deal with this sort of thing. New-built townhomes have that sort of thing. But they have no space, no land and outrageous HOA fees. Suburbia is as it ever was. Gardening is still gardening; the water still comes in pipes. Cooking is still cooking; the fuel still comes in pipes. Garbage has to be trucked way far south to a landfill beyond Gilroy, so lots of care happens to reduce that. The good food still comes in stores. But if you’re looking for bulk food, canned food, processed food, you can just order that. You still can’t try that with the fruits & vegetables: they ship you the seconds still in a 4-hr window (nothing ever changes does it?). Shopping pretty much works as: if you know what you want, you order it and they deliver it. If it can’t be specified or it has subtle acceptance criteria, then you have to go get it.

It’s Tuesday. I watched MNF last night. They still have Monday Night Football, but it isn’t tied to a network, it’s produced and broadcast directly from the NFL studios, delivered OTT to the 90″ display in the living room. The NFL found a way to make the concussion problem reduce to a dull roar, somewhat similar to how hockey dealt with goalies getting their faces cut up by the puck before they were required to wear face masks. The games are in an a la carte format which is great, but there are no more DVRs. “They” finally cracked down hard on commercial skipping (no more TiVo, no more +15 second skip-forward easter egg). It’s difficult to watch in real time. The screens are bigger, lighter and better nowadays, but the content is crypto-sealed on every wire and at rest. You can’t build your own either, not really. Folks who do that don’t for long. They wind up on a list. HDCP finally locked down everything. You can “video on demand” but it’s really more of a “video upon supplication” not so much watching something you manage from your library. Governments are glacially slow to respond to this sort of thing, but this is one thing they do care deeply about: media copy protection.

Voice commanding is feasible for most interfaces, everything has microphones in it. The cars had it since 2014; always on OnStar they called it. The city streets got FTTH and also ubiquitous microphones in the fiber during the same trenching operation. Depending upon the part of the city, from in the early 2020s onward. Stanford campus had theirs city-scale microphones installed 2017-04; it worked well enough they installed it everywhere. It was like the Eruv debate, but less contentious. Every conversation, everywhere is recorded, indexed and available to someone.

Cameras in everything, except in the cameras. Positioning and naming things isn’t a problem any more. Things got better once the large displays became contactable from the local area. One gets so tired of squinting at a 4″ screen.
And recorded in the national-scale DVR; always and forever. Every stream, every image, indexed and available to someone.

The kids are long gone and into their graduate school times. We see them a few times a year. The older generation of the family has been gone for a while now, we’re the oldsters. It’s been clear the generations are turning for a decade now. Been having the same conversation with friends & colleagues with regularity: what happened to mom, what happened to dad; the kids launched, or didn’t, or (ahem) still haven’t.

I’m still working, and it’s been to be fun for the past decade. More of a “because I can” than “because I must.” We had this joke back in the day which ran:

Q: “what do you do”?
A: “nobody knows”

It was at once flippant, elitist and totally accurate. They tell the kids in B-school “if it can be measured, it can be managed,” and they can pretty much measure anything these days. Sensors and recordation in everything. The kid and the new hires have a harder time with it, until they figure out how to compartementalize.

We would be presumptively retired at this age, but the SSI folk keep moving the standard retirement age up so now “seventy five is the new sixty five.” They never reduced stated benefits or raised taxes. Just that one knob. Fun stuff.

Taxes are about the same except the governments got around to “going digital” on that part of the executive branch. Every transaction is transparent with AML and KYC laws being enforced unto minutia. They don’t compute your tax and send you the bill, they take it at the appointed time or withhold it prior to you receiving it. It’s convenient, but doesn’t leave a lot of room for creativity. Those who owned real estate and were creatively depreciating their assets against their tax liabilities to pay no tax were really unhappy; and still are. Big corporations still use transfer pricing for this sort of thing.

People still drive too many cars for the size of the roads, the government still doesn’t maintain the roads enough. I have an electric car now. I will have replaced it. Still have the Avalanche for long trips and camping though. The Suburban base model still exists but it has various power train options: diesel, gas, voltec, pure electric.

What’s happened in the decade is not a Great Stagnation, but a focus on smoothening out the little things. There are so many things that no longer need to happen: paying bills, paying taxes (sure, you still pay, death & taxes, right? but the reconciliation is enforced automatically). There is less standing in line waiting for someone at minimum-wage to validate that you aren’t stealing. There are no more teenage jobs, or Gen-Z starter jobs, but also no more waiting. Except in New Jersey. You still have to have someone pump your gas for you. It’s a graft thing. Come to think of it there’s lots of other little ways that the graft occurs. But it’s spread out and done on a time scale and across spaces where the Taylorists can’t comprehend or measure it.

I once asked someone, an éminence grise in his field, what he thought of the news of the day in-trade and in general. His response was that he no longer considers the news. He’s just as likely to hear that someone he knew has died or fallen somehow, so he no longer considers broadly across the events of the day. He focuses his time and effort on fewer things.


Please free-write (no editing or polishing required) a short journal entry for yourself, that begins: “It’s October 10, 2026….” Think about the age of yourself (remember, you’re 10 years older!), and your loved ones, in 2026 as you write this, and what may have changed by then. If you have no idea what to write about, think about something you’re excited to do or looking forward to in the next month — and then write about what it might be like to try to do that thing in the year 2026.

  • What are you excited about today?
  • What is your biggest worry?
  • Who are you seeing?
  • What are you doing for work?
  • What are you doing for pleasure?
  • What’s happening at home?
  • Will you be able to?
  • What would be different about it?
  • What would make it impossible to do that thing?
  • What would you do instead that will fulfill the same drive or desire?

The Essence of Scenarios: Learning From the Shell Experience | Wilkinson, Kupers

Angel Wilkinson, Roland Kupers; The Essence of Scenarios: Learning From the Shell Experience; Amsterdam University Press; 2014-02-18; 185 pages; Amazon:9089645942; kindle: $36, paper: $30+SHT.


  • History and context is given.
  • Who
  • The Scenarios are cataloged: their names, dates, sketch-summaries.
  • Everyone has scenarios.
  • Everyone is a futurist.
  • Can’t tell the charlatans from the poets from the punters.
  • One must Hack the Spew consider On Bullshit, of Harry Frankfurt
Arm Thyself

With automated scenarios filtering grinding against automated generation of scenarios.

  • Reflective Control Theory, separately filled.
  • Weaponization of Information, separately filled.
  • Firehose of Falsehood, separately filled.


The Outline of Chapter 3, The Essence of the Shell Art

  1. Improving intuition
  2. Plausible, not probable
  3. Striking the balance between relevant and challenging
  4. Pragmatic, not ideological
  5. Realizing the role of the future in the present
  6. Focused and targeted
  7. Engaging the client in the process
  8. Memorable, yet disposable
  9. Storytelling – the heart of strategic conversation
  10. The necessity of numbers
  11. The creation of a scenario team
  12. Serving as door-openers and adding value to external relationships
  13. Fostering a culture of openness and curiousity
  14. Managing disagreement as an asset
  15. Providing vlaue within a broader management system


And this is substantially what is occurring today.

Quoting verbatim from Chapter 4, Looking Ahead, pages 121-122

We conclude, in the spirit of Shell scenarios, by offering thumbnail summaries of two possible scenarios for the future of the global scenarios in Shell that might arise from the interplay of the [above changes, some points, not shown].

Business Lens

Shell has finally moved on from the consensus-driven culture of its past to a more focused delivery culture in which scenarios continue to play a strategic role. The availability of market-based futures studies and foresight services, including a proliferation of global foresight hubs and publically available scenarios, leads Shell to concentrate on using a mix of outsourced and homegrown scenarios to present real business dilemmas. Inputs on the social, political, technological, and economic changes are detected using two filters – strong trends and weak signals – and e-harvested from high quality foresight initiatives and scenario studies done elsewhere. Automated web-crawls and online Delphi surveys of an increasingly extensive network of worldwide experts are combined to enable the development of scenario building blocks. This practice allows the scenario team to glean the best insights from many and varied source and also helps to maintain the ‘outsider’ perspective that is so important to the traditional scenario function of engaging with remarkable people.

In this future, the investment in building global scenarios is shifted to undertaking regular reviews of the proliferation of available scenarios and foresight studies done elsewhere and coupling those more closely with bespoken, in-house models. This focus enables Shell to conduct more rigorous and comprehensive environmental scanning and to draw on ‘big data’ sets an existing futures reports and scenarios studies to more rapidly detect and analyze longer term system risk.

Shell scenarios continue to provide the basis of the firm’s global early warning and tracking systems, fed again in real-time by a range of global dashboards and monitoring systems established by others.

Reaching Out

Dramatic changes in the energy landscape, coupled with inertia by governments in addressing the integrated risks of connectivity, such as the resource security-climate stress nexus, unleashes an era of new social movements and bottom-up changes. As a result, Shell reinvents its scenarios practice in order to reach out and establish linkages with many communities on which it depends to produce and buy its products. A new ‘open source’ scenario practice emerges in which social media technologies combined with workshop-based dialogs explore the futures of energy in the context of planetary ceilings and social foundations.

Nested scenarios – sets of scenarios focused on different scales and dimensions – are developed to appreciate nexus issues. Shell harnesses social media technologies to navigate parallel paradigms in a multi-polar world and develop new insights into multi-scale resiliency.

‘Scenario-Plus’ methods are developed, combining visioning, scenarios, and design to inform transition pathways and innovation domains. In the process Shell gains a deeper understanding of new business opportunities stemming from interactions among energy, water, and food systems, as well as from the linkages resulting from changes in governance, technology, and consumer behaviors.

By continuing to attend to the role of intuition and interpretative frames, and by linking in-house modeling to open-source modeling contests, Shell scenarios provide the means of evergreen sense-making and market shaping by building rapid social capital in a world where relationships determine flexibility and new ideas are only as effective as the wider networks that will make change happen.

Stanford 2025, the purpose of the elite university, Java, JavaScript


Stanford 2025, about.


A nice counterpoint to Lowen’s history in Creating the Cold War University [below]. In reading the About page, understanding who funded this and why they might have done that, I’m struck by the lifelong learning aspect and the conceptual abandonment of the “alumni” concept. That’s probably the biggest suspension of disbelief that one must have. Second to that though is that there is an argument to be made about whether autodictatism (generally the Unschooling Movement) is appropriate and to which domains of expertise it applies.  Rather than argue that, I’ll spend the time here to highlight a generation-scale ongoing experiment and debate that has been occurring at Stanford Computer Science for around twenty years.

The story runs like this: “back in the day” (of the ’90s), the discipline of Computer Science had a certain rite of passage at Stanford, Cal and probably everywhere wherein after the first intro course in a teaching language like WATFIV or Pascal, the student was immediately expected to undertake the data structures, compiler or operating systems course with mastery of the <satire>One True Language</satire>: C of Unix.  Many did not make that transition, which probably was the point of arranging the course sequence that way. Same pattern in Chem, Physics, and the B-school sequences.

In the era in question here, pre-Bubble I, Prof. Eric Roberts at Stanford, chose to migrate the introductory course to Java for pedagogical and practical reasons. Not the least was that there was demand for Java-centric knowledge in industry. Among the debates of the day, was whether an elite school like Stanford was supposed to be in the business of teaching “job skills in support of the IT trades” or whether the time and money being spent at the institution was better used to teach general principles, provoke the critical thinking and develop of timeless deep understanding.  MIT taught intro via Scheme in this era. Whereas nowadays the industry, and especially Google via the legal reminding system [cited below], understands that Java is a licensed product offering of Oracle Corporation with structured community availability and user feedback machinery patterned after the “open source” cultures. The argument was made at the time that Java, with it’s lububrious OO frameworks, “no pointer” memory model, garbage collection and “cannot crash” runtime engine was both better for teaching and the right set-point for the career path into industry.

I sketch this now because here, twenty years later, the debate is substantially the same: is the purpose of The University and the 4-year degree system about inculcating a desire for incremental lifelong learning as a “sense of self improvement” program [c.f. Parker, below], is it in support of career skills production of knowledge workers in the global economy, or regionally is it the training venue to the trades (crudely, is Stanford no different than DeVry [c.f. the Thompson & Smiley  pieces below]) or is there more to the brand, the venue, the institution, the traditions of the big schools & liberal arts themselves and their Enlightenment extensions into areas of practice?

I’m reminded of this debate both from the pointer to the Stanford 2025 outreach site and also because of some recent signal-type events which caused some notice in-industry. Stanford’s transition from Java to JavaScript for 2017-Spring.

  • I and my cohort learned it “old school.”
  • Today, many IT shop hire for Java and JavaScript skills, which are tested for in the interviews: can the prospect drive the compiler, show the code produced.
  • The transition occurred because [we] “couldn’t hire” C++ people, who where elsewhere in more specialized areas, and because of the effects of the Greater Taylorism in the industry: [we] didn’t need to any more.  JavaScript is good enough for “light programming” and Java for the “heavy coding.”

One can follow the Taylorism on into the future tense as the Function-as-a-Service devops-as-business models.  The lifelong learning, pay-as-you-go tutorials, continuous degree programs and micro-certification are just another aspect of Taylorism.  Why pay for a generalist C++ skill set when one can buy Java skills to suit the purpose? Why buy Java skills when one can get MOOC-certified JavaScript? Why buy programming expertise at all when Excel light skills will suit the purpose?  Why buy Excel when Google Sheets is “free” and in your browser right now? There are answers to these conundrums, but organizations do develop differently depending upon how they view the questions and evolve in path dependence from the answers they choose.


in archaeological order…