EV Everywhere: Grand Challenge Blueprint; U.S Department of Energy; 2013-01-31.
- EV Everywhere: A Grand Challenge in Plug-In Electric Vehicles, Initial Framing Document, White Paper to Explore, A Grand Challenge in Plug-In Electric Vehicle; United States Department of Energy (DOE); (report dated) 2012-08-15; 31 pages.
- David Sandalow (DOE); EV Everywhere Grand Challenge; At Slideshare by CALSTART as Danielson Sandalow DOE Keynotes; (published) 2012-08-01; 15 slides.
- Vehicles and Fuels; Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Office of the Department of Energy; an outreach site.
- EV Everywhere Grand Challenge; Vehicle Technologies Office; Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy; U.S. Department of Energy
- EV Everywhere Grand Challenge Kick-Off – 2012-06-21 – Hyatt Regency, Dearborn, MI
- Electric Drive Workshop – 2012-07-24 – Doubletree O’Hare, Chicago, IL
- Battery Workshop – 2012-07-26 – Doubletree O’Hare, Chicago, IL
- Consumer Acceptance and Charging Infrastructure Workshop – 2012-07-30 – LAX Marriott, Los Angeles, CA
- EV Everywhere Grand Challenge, Framing Workshop Output circa 2013-07-26
Output from the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge Framing Workshop.
From page 4 & 5
To summarize the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge vision, realizing PEVs that meet or exceed the performance of ICE vehicles on the basis of cost, convenience, and consumer satisfaction will require the combined efforts of technological push (R&D), operational enablers (charging infrastructure), and market pull (consumer adoption and incentives). PEVs have already established a foothold in a world long dominated by gasoline vehicles. As technology improves and production scales, batteries and electric drive systems will become less expensive and better performing. DOE’s goal is to work with leaders in the private sector, state and local governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and academia to accelerate these trends.
The report is referred to as a “Blueprint” (which may be the same as a “Roadmap”). It has the flavor of the grand semiconductor industry roadmaps and keynote addresses: we gonna need; we need more this, we need more that, we need more R&D
This [Blueprint] document serves as a “living strategic framework” that will guide DOE’s investments in the Challenge going forward.
- AEV => All-Electric Vehicle [definition, page 3]
- AEV-100 => an AEV with a 100-mile range (a goal)
- AEV-300 => an AEV with a 300-mile range (a goal)
- DOE => Department of Energy
- EVSE => Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (the charger equipment)
- HEV => Hybrid Electric Vehicle [definition, page 3]
- HOV => High-Occupancy Vehicle
- ICE => Internal Combustion Engine
- LMP => Local Marginal Price (of a commodity in a tiered pricing scheme)
- NEV => Neighborhood Electric Vehicle
- NGO => Non-Governmental Organization
- PEV => Plug-in Electric Vehicle [definition, page 3; PEV = AEV | PHEV]
- PHEV => Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle [definition, page 3]
- PHEV-40 => a PHEV with a 40-mile range (a goal)
- PV => Photo-Voltaic (i.e. solar) systems
- V2G => Vehicle to Grid
- WBG => Wide Bandgap (semiconductors)
- lightweighting => design concepts & schemes pursuant to reducing weight; simplespeak: weight reduction
- FMVSS => Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards
- SAE–J2929 => Battery Safety Standard
- Levelized Cost = purchase cost + operating cost
Claims & Observations
- Claim => [page 4] “Driving on electricity is cheaper than driving on gasoline—generally comparable to roughly $1 per gallon of gasoline equivalent”
- for the same sized car
- at some retail price point of gasoline
- at some retail price point (LMP) electricity
- extra credit: what are those price points?
- Observation => [page 5] “Additional social science research is required to better understand consumer preferences regarding vehicle structures and fast-charging technologies.”
- A fancy way of saying “market research”
- There is a huge marketing challenge here in the classic tech adoption curve of the electronics industry, except it plays out across auto industry R&D/build/sale/use/dispose cycles of 8+8+8+8 years
- Claim => [page 7] ” The cost of today’s batteries is over four times too high.”
- Relative to what?
- To consumer demand curve willingness&ability-to-pay?
- To theoretical efficiency?
- To some macroecon class theoretical “percentage-of-gdp dedicated to batteries” which is optimal for a society?
- Claim => [page 15] “Taxpayers currently receive a Federal tax credit from $2,500-$7,500 for qualified PEVs. Policy mechanisms, such as transferring the Federal tax credit to the point-of-sale, can reduce consumer PEV purchase barriers.”
- Indeed … many consumers are surprised to find out that the tax credit scheme of the IRS only works if you have a tax liability to match it, and you only close out that credit+liability (sic) four hundred fifty days later when you file your final year-end tax return for the year in which the sale occurred. good luck with that.
- Case: my booked arbitrage lasts on my books: 2013-01-31 -> 2014-04-15.
- Paraphrasing the parable of prudence: a lot can change in a deal structure in a year and a quarter.
- U.S. DRIVE is a government-industry partnership.
- U.S. DOE Clean Cities Program
- Currently available resources include
- a permit template
- Residential Charging Installation Video.
Stated twice, once in the Vision and once in the Technical (should you read that far).
The technical targets for the DOE PEV program fall into four areas: battery R&D; electric drive system R&D; vehicle lightweighting; and advanced climate control technologies. <snip/> The technical targets presented in this section represent “stretch goals” established in consultation with stakeholders across the industry who acknowledge that innovations in PEV technology will only occur as a result of collaborative efforts in scientific investigations and technology development.
- Cutting battery costs from their current $500/kWh to $125/kWh.
- Eliminating almost 30% of vehicle weight through lightweighting
- Reducing the cost of electric drive systems from $30/kW to $8/kW
- 2012-2017 => Near-Term
- 2017-2027 => Long-Term
- Energy Storage (“beyond Li-ion”)
- (near-term) higher capacity cathodes, higher voltage electrolytes, tin replaces graphite anodes
- (long-term) lithium-sulfur, magnesium-ion, zinc-air, and lithium-air
- Materials (“beyond silicon”)
- Silicon Carbide
- Wide Bandgap semiconductors
- Fast discharge across a wide (enough) range of applications (teeny-toy cars [NEVs], actual cars, crossovers, SUVs, some light-duty trucks].
- Fast charge is nice-to-have for consumer adoption; reasonably comparable with liquid fueling onloading (~10 min). Gingerly stated but not a declared goal: “Fast charging may be important for consumer adoption of certain PEVs.”
- Density (not clear why the units are different in these two declared goals)
- (near-term) battery energy density from 100 Wh/kg to 250 Wh/kg.
- (long-term) battery power density target of 2000 W/kg.
- reduce vehicle weight by 30% across all components (not clear why this is in the Battery imagery and not in the Lightweighting imagery).
- electric drive => $30/kW (2012) to $8/kW (2022);
assuming: 1.4 kW/kg, 4kW/L, 94% efficiency
- battery => $500/kWh (2012) to $125/kWh (2022)
assuming: 250 Wh/kg, 400 Wh/L, 2 Wh/kg (not clear what the three ratios are)
- Electric Drive Systems
- Electric Motors
- reduce rare-earth components
- Power Electronics
- heat-transfer & management
- WBG semiconductors
- Traction Drive Systems
- On-Board Chargers
- Vehicle Lightweighting
- Mechanical characteristics improvment
- Cost reduction
- Facilitation of manufacturability
- Cost effective joining of multimaterial structures
- Corrosion protection of multimaterial structures
- Safety validation of lightweight designs
- Design tools for (faster) development of new materials.
- Weight reduction goals, by 2022 (i.e. a decade hence)
- body structure => -35%
- chassis => -25%
- suspension => -25%
- interior => -5%
- Efficient Climate Control Technologies
- Emergy Load Reduction & Energy Management
- Advanced HVAC Equipment
- Cabin Pre-Conditioning
- Charging Infrastructure
- Charging Infrastructure Siting
- Codes & Standards Development for Charging
- PEV Charging Station Permitting
- PEV Charging Station Signage
- Grid Integration
- Education & Policy
- Adoption by government & private fleets
- Boosterism towards the industry
- Increase scale & scope
- Drive down cost through scale
- Federal tax credits
- $2,500 to $7,500 tax credit against a PEV purchase
- State tax credits
- Policy mechanisms (vague); tax & regulatory
- Transfer the Federal tax credit to the point-of-sale
- Access to restricted roads; e.g. HOV lanes for PEV
- Preferred parking for PEVs
Selected & summarized, even for the report (there may have been more that they didn’t disclose).
- Framing Workshop Recommendation
- Maximizing “electric miles driven” should be a key goal for DOE.
- Battery Workshop Recommendations
- EV Everywhere should pursue a balanced battery R&D portfolio focused on
aggressive Li-ion (80%) and beyond Li-ion (20%), given the probability that Li-ion can achieve the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge.
- EV Everywhere should develop lower-cost processes for materials production (cathode, anode, electrolyte, and separator) since these represent a large portion of battery cost.
- Electric Drive Workshop Recommendations
- EV Everywhere should leapfrog silicon devices for power electronics, and focus on silicon carbide and wide bandgap materials.
- Electric motor development should focus on concepts that reduce or eliminate rare earth materials.
- Vehicle Lightweighting Workshop Recommendation
- Modeling and simulation of advanced alloys/materials (aluminum, steels, composites, magnesium, and advanced materials) for improved performance and cost is needed, including modeling techniques that can integrate with objectives for both materials property improvement and cost reduction to address a path towards performance and cost needs in each material system.
- Auxiliary Load Reduction Workshop Recommendation
- EV Everywhere should focus on advanced climate control technologies (passenger comfort and window defrost/defog) that use less energy to achieve the same level of climate control, allowing for a smaller, less expensive battery.
- EV Everywhere Workshop Finding
- Wireless charging could enhance consumer acceptance of PEVs, and the potential offered by the technology presents an opportunity for innovation. In the near term, static (stationary) wireless charging may provide convenience to the PEV driver.
- Major Energy Sources and Users; United States, Energy Information Administration
- EIA AEO 2013 Reference Cost; cryptic figure footnote citation, cited page 06.
When these goals are met, the levelized cost of an all-electric vehicle with a 280-mile range will be comparable to that of an ICE vehicle of similar size. Even before these ambitious goals are met, the levelized cost [purchase cost + operating cost] of most plug-in hybrid electric vehicles—and of all-electric vehicles with shorter ranges (such as 100 miles)—will be comparable to the levelized cost of ICE vehicles of similar size. Although there is little evidence that levelized cost plays an important role in vehicle purchase decisions for most consumers, there is substantial evidence that initial purchase price plays an important role—and meeting these targets will help to reduce the purchase price for plug-in electric vehicles. In light of uncertainty concerning consumer preferences and manufacturer plans for PEVs, DOE is selecting ambitious technical goals for this program.
- Disclaimer: This paper does not represent, reflect, or endorse an existing, planned, or proposed policy of the U.S. Government, including but not limited to the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. Department of Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, relevance, timeliness, or completeness of information herein, and does not endorse any sources used to obtain this information. As such, this paper is not subject to the Information Quality Act and implementing regulations and guidelines.
- Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof.
David T. Danielsen, Dr.; Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Steven Chu, Dr.
Images & Actualities
Images from the report