Answer #1 to Homework Assignment Week 2, PDV-91: Collect a signal, prepare & present

Domain

In the domain of online entertainment, publishing, blogging, gaming,, movies, commerce and such as is now understood to be “siliicon valley technology,” “the web,” “the internet,” “the blogosphere,,” “the online cyberspace,” “the mobile world.”

Amplification

As a story line, whereas in 2027…

  • The net is not neutral and hasn’t been for more than half a decade.
  • Network speeds, service, features, affordances vary according to carrier & fees.  The network is “Vertical” and “Splintered.” It is not flat. It is not “open.”  Without the appropriate bundled package, some entertainment sites & commercial services are not available to the consumer.  e.g. Netflix, ESPN, Google, Medium, Amazon, Fox News, wordpress.com, news.ycombinator.com, PBS, The Comedy Channel, TheWhat, myblog.example.com, etc.
  • Each consumer must “login to the internet” from the browser to receive any web page at all.  This carries the force of law, which is enforced at low cost to Law Enforcement. (think: like music downloading but more so).  For residential consumers the internet is like a corporate “capture portal” – all traffic is logged, monitored & billed.  There is effectively an “internet driver license.”
  • The notional general purpose “office work”-capable laptop computer has ceased to exist, those are called “work stations” and are about as interesting as a Black & Decker table saw or a Cuisinart food processor: useful in certain contexts, but not a social enabler.  They are not cultural icons of pride and wonder. All consumer computing is on closed, curated & very polished equipment sold within one of two Great Cultures (think: iOS or Android).
  • Network connectivity is “free” or for a token flat-rate fee.
    But: media experiences are not free; they are metered and billed.  Reading linkbait or “thoughtful longread thinkpieces” carries a cost to compensate the artists.
    Think “toll free data,” “sponsored data,” “channel bundling,” “web site bundling” patterned after the organized markets of Cable TV.  Micro-payments with carrier-billed presentment is universal and enshrined in law.
  • There are no “non-billed” experiences on the network; there are no DIY websites
    and avoidance of these measures by any means carries criminal legal penalties (think like the DMCA).  And these prosecutions occur.
  • Regulation of “personal data” follows GDPR-type rules, but more so. As suhc, only a few very large, very capable media companies are willing to work with consumer data (any data “about” a consumer).  Nearly all data is “consumer data”; e.g. IP address, access times, etc.. and is governed by the regulations.
  • These network media companies have developed magical Artificial Intelligence such that the network knows who you are and what you are like.  The few large media companies left are able to attune the entertainment and content construction operations to maximize their effectiveness using psychographic techniques. The “effectiveness” concept is a revenue optimization metric that manifests in return to the media owners.
Signals

In archaeological order (newer material on top, older material below)…

Analysis Framework

Change

In 2017, the notional “internet” is fun and a pleasant read.  It somehow stands “apart” from other technologies: phones, photocopiers, cars, airplanes, and computers.  By 2027, the Internet will be sixty years old at this point and multiple generations (three generations per Strauss & Howe’s theory) will have transitioned with experience of it. It will become ambient and “media centric” rather than “technology centric.”

Drivers
Money
The big carriers and media companies need to be seen as “growth companies” with increasing revenues.  In 2017, some of them are not growing and have not been growing for more than a decade.  c.f. stock symbols T, VZ, S, TMUS on a 10-year timespan.
Safety
Whereas in 2017, The Internet of 1990s & 2000s has become unsafe, a concept of Law & Order will begin to prevail. ,More Law and more Order.
Because
Because it can be done with the technology at hand in 2017, it will be done. This is the technological determinism argument, the Inevitibility concept.
Difficulties

This scenario might evolve differently into the cone of uncertainty given a number of eventualities:  From probable to improbable.

  • GDPR effectively shuts down the internet surveillance economics as some activists have declared.  An industry is gone.
  • Continued and amplified trade tensions with China over labor, capital & technology issues.
  • Technological failure, the failure of imagination
    An Inability of north american technologists to continue to meet the pace of technology advancement in China; think “there isn’t any silicon in Silicon Valley and hasn’t been for two generations.  Rock’s Law contra Moore’s Law against the Fabless Semicondustor system [paper]; or Bunnie Huang’s estimates at talk on Shenzen at C3 or The Hardware Hacker; or Richard Danzig’s Surviving on a Diet of Poisoned Fruit.
  • Income inequality continues … and actually matters to the extent that economic life bends around it.  industries are nationalized, protests & riots for or against this or that, capital- and trade- controls are instituted, etc.  The U.S. Dollar ceases to be a “risk free asset.”
  • Demographic failure, inability to execute & continue the global cosmopolitain technopolis:
    • Japan becomes more grey than was as was c.f. demographic megatrends, [not cited.]
    • Brexit causes economic chaos in the EMEA zone [not cited].
    • e.g. Trumpism becomes a 4-term phenomenon following FDR’s The New Deal; c.f. WTF
  • The continued (infinite war) paradigm:
    • Cointinued proxy wars in all of Afghanistan, Pakhistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Israel, Turkey and unincorporated lands in & around.
    • A war with China over sea access in the South Pacific.
    • An accidental or purposeful nuclear weapon used on North Korea or the United Sates’ soil.
    • A real war with Russia?
  • The global warming thing:
    Ahem, and only because it was in the reading list.  Global warming is really real, and as-stated. We all die in a hot bouillabaise of melted polar seas, starving and clawing for any scrap of food, before 2027. per David Wallace-Wells’ scare-piece in the New York Magazine.
Skills
  • Skill 4 (collect): references (above)/.
  • Skill 5 (forecast)
  • Skill 6 (positive Imagination)
  • Skill 7 (shadow Imagination)

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