Some hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures | Jim Dator

Jim Dator; Some hints on writing scenarios of preferred futures; On course materials, University of Hawaii; WHEN?; 2 pages ← somehints.

Mentions

  • not prediction
  • imagining
    the desired end state.
  • planning

Method

Identify factors

  1. Existing processes and systems
    moving in a helpful direction
    Action: maintain or amplify.
  2. Existing processes and systems
    blocking
    Action: overcome or marginalize.
  3. New processes and systems
    Action: develop

Construct a timeline

An appropriate interval
  • 20-50 years.
  • 30 years (is a happy medium)

Identify institutions & events

  1. Certainty
    e.g.

    • Astronomical; comets, eclipses
    • Social
      • 4-year cadence
        • elections
        • olympics
      • 2000 → Y2K
      • 1994 →Hong Kong
      • 1992 → Columbus (-bashing)
      • 1984 → Orwell
  2. Cycles
    e.g.

    • Kondratiev Long Waves
      will the Kondratiev Wave be rising or falling in at
    • Generational Cycles c.f. Strauss & Howe.
      What “generation” will be in power then?
  3. Technological developments
    1. Possibilities
      given current funding, trajectory, etc.
    2. Plausibilities
      given different funding, breakthrough surprises, etc.
    3. Unlikely
      because they are silly, e.g.

      1. The Singularity
      2. Becoming Infinite Immortal Spirit Beings of Light.
      3. Idle Licentiuous Joblessness within a Benevolent Universal Dole.
  4. Caused
    1. by the actors
    2. very few major
  5. Disallowed
    e.g.

    1. The Rapture, etc.
    2. The utopian science fiction scenarios.
    3. etc.

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