Future Studies (partial) Roundup through 2017-06

Concepts

  • AI <ahem>1970→2004, AI defined as that which computers could not do (FAIL); 2004→2017 AI redefined to that which computers can do (success!)</ahem>
  • Big Data (which is so very big, we are all very impressed down here)
  • The Coming War on General Purpose Computing [Doctorow]
  • Communities of Practice
  • Computers are very delicate
  • Creative Class (Florida)
  • Data (Personal Data) is the New Oil → Oil is the new Oil.
  • Designed in California, Manufatured in China
  • The Disappearing Computer
  • A Failure of Imagination
  • A Failure to Launch
  • Financialization
  • Free Culture → Code is Law (Lessig)
  • Entitlement → Implicit entitlement of The Millennials & The Homelanders (Generation Z)
  • Internet of Thingies (IoT)
    Internet of Unpatchable Toys (IoT)
    Internet of Abandoned Devices
  • Internet Trends → Mary Meeker, the boosterism
  • It Was Ever Thus → plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
  • Hollowing Out → There is no silicon in Silicon Valley. and there and hasn’t been for over a generation.
  • Innovation Duration
  • Platform Cooperativism
  • Post Open Source (POSS)
  • Regulation → public-private “partnerships,” “government has a role to play,” GDPR
  • Regulation → Net Neutrality
  • Regulation → Internet of Thingies
  • Robots → <gee-whizz!>Drones, Servos, Driverlessness</gee-whizz!>
  • Silicon Valley Culture → techno optimism, techno determinism, against Washington.
  • Stagnation → The Great Stagnation, The Downward Ramp
  • STEM, STEEP → labor shortage, labor economics, immigration
  • Stocks vs Flows (Hagel’s concepts)
  • Surveillance Studies (and the journal)
  • Trust, But Verify
  • West Coast Culture
  • Universal Basic Income (UBI) → To each according to their need.

Exemplars

Trilemma of The Global Scenarios 2025 of Shell Oil (2005)

  • Three Poles
    • Security, Coercion, Regulation
    • Efficiency, Market Incentives
    • Social Cohesion, Justice, Communitarianism (The force of community)
  • Scenarios
    • Low Trust Globalization
    • Flags
    • Open Doors

Separately noted.

Quadratic (ahem, a “Quadrilemma”) of the Internet Futures Scenarios

  • Two Axis, Four Quadrant
  • X-Axis
    • Command & Control
    • Decentralized & Distributed
  • Y-Axis
    • Generative
    • Reductive
  • Scenarios
    • Porous Garden
    • Moats and Drawbridges
    • Common Pool
    • Boutique Networks

Separately noted.

Theories

In Jimi Wales’ Wiki, Encyclopedia Brittanica, etc.

Popularization & Practice

  • Clayton Christianson
    • Disruptive Innovation
    • Innovation to Predict Change
  • Geoffrey Moore.
    • Core vs Context,
    • Chasm,
    • Tornado,
    • Gorilla etc.

Referenced

Noted herein

Categorical

Background

  • Counterfactual Histories, the method of counterfactuals
  • Covering-Law Model
  • Post Open Source (POSS); In Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
  • Ben Ramsey; Post-Open Source; In His Blog; 2016-004-26.
  • Quadrilemma, see Trilemma, see Dilemma
  • Trilemma, In Jimi Wales’ Wiki
    also: uneasy triangle, impossible trinity, and other branded concepts

    • stable price level, full employment, free collective bargaining
    • impossible trinity,
    • fair, free, equal,
    • democracy, national sovereignty, global economic integration

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