The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 | Shell Oil



Low-Trust Globalization

  • prove it → trust, but verify
  • culture of blame
  • lawyers, accountants
  • reactive
  • compliance
  • multii-national corporations
  • bond financing is popular
  • absence of market solutions
  • arbitrage of jurisdiction, regulation.
  • checks & controls


  • dogmatic about codes and causes
  • interconnected
  • identity culture
  • fragmented, polarized
  • state capture for (ethnic) ends
  • security by isolation
  • national champions
  • high military

Open Doors

  • pragmatic
  • proactive
  • cooperative
  • precautionary principle
  • government in the background
  • reputation, networking skills
  • best-practice codes, self-regulation
  • innovation
  • low duration
  • stable large money chases smaller returns

Signposts (of the Poles)

Security, Coercion, Regulation

Security and trust through coercion and regulation

  1. Terror threat grows
  2. States struggle to find common response to nuclear proliferation.
  3. NATO expansion fuels security concerns
  4. Market regulations place heavy burdens on small businesses

Efficiency and Market Incentives

Efficiency and growth through markets and private initiatives

  1. Business environment improving
  2. China spurs growth
  3. Immigration and liberalization of labor flows
  4. Foreign listings and liberalization of international capital

Social Cohesion, Justice, Communitarianism

Social cohesion through force of community.

  1. Blow to world trade
  2. Resource nationalism on the rise
  3. Social integration, exclusion and identity politics in Europe
  4. Proud to be Japanese

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